The midterm elections are only six months away, but the 2024 campaign season has already got all the engines rolling as the race for the Senate seats that determine control of the Senate heats up.

Republicans are aggressive as they search for top candidates to overthrow the incumbent Democrat cadres who have survived one after another. At stake are the Democrats with a one-seat majority as they make their defenses in ruby-red states where Republicans are licking their chops to win.

Here’s an early look at the five Senate seats most likely to be overthrown next year.

west virginia

West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice speaks during his US Senate campaign announcement at The Greenbrier Resort in White Sulfur Springs, Virginia, Thursday, April 27, 2023. (AP Photo/Chris Jackson)

The state has long been expected to be at the center of the Senate race, but last week when Gov. Jim Justice (R) announced his bid to replace Senator Joe Manchin (DW.Va.). , the battle intensified. GOP he is one of the top recruits on the 2024 map.

Justice quickly becomes a favorite of GOP nods. Polls show he is likely to win, and the National Senate Campaign Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund, backed by supporters of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), show their support.

Top senators including Senator Sherri Moore Capito (RW.Va.) are also in attendance.

But he still faces an uphill road against pro-Trump conservative Rep. Alex Mooney (RW.Va.). He showed his mettle last year by ousting Rep. David McKinley (RW.Va.) in a primary created by redistricting. Club for Growth also said it was prepared to commit $10 million to support Mooney.

“Justice is 50-50 just to be the candidate,” one Democratic operative told Hill, noting that he was a Democrat not long ago.

The primary winner faced Manchin in a state that former President Trump won by almost 40 points.

Mr. Manchin has been both a lynchpin and a thorn in the side of the Democratic Party, casting key votes on major bills last year, but he was the first to extract concessions from the leadership. Most recently, he said he was prepared to support overturning the Inflation Reduction Act if the administration does not implement it properly, and voted alongside Republicans to overturn the Biden administration’s rules on truck exhaust. bottom.

A two-term moderate Democrat, he has no intention of making a decision before December and will likely watch the primary to see how things play out before making a decision. said.

But Republicans are gearing up as if Manchin will be on the ballot again.

“Sen. Manchin is formidable. We all know that,” Capito said in a short interview.

Manchin released a statement shortly before Justice announced his candidacy, showcasing his electoral prowess and contributing to speculation that he may have other ambitions.

“But without a doubt, I win every race I enter,” he said.

Montana

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) leaves a closed-door House Republican meeting at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington, D.C., Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023. (Greg Nash)

Unlike West Virginia, the first half of the equation is perfect for Democrats, as Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont.) announced earlier this year that he’s going for a fourth term, and of the two reddest elections. Give your party a real chance with one of the states on the map.

Now, with the Republican Party trying to find a candidate who can deny him another six years in Washington, the question is whether or not to get him to the finish line.

In the case of Republican and NRSC Chairman Steve Danes (Republican, Montana), businessman Tim Sheehy, Danes’ friend Rep. Ryan Zinke (Republican, Montana), and Montana Attorney General Austin・Knudsen’s two names continue to appear. (R) When you try to find someone (and anyone) who isn’t Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) to face off against a tester.

“You have to get the right candidate in a state like that. I added the body.

Tester defeated Rosendale by 4.5 points in 2018.

Despite the state’s red hue — Trump won the state by 16 points in 2020 — Democrats remain confident in testers. A case in point was his announcement that he would block all candidates for the administration from Amtrak’s board of directors.

“Whoever his opponents are, they’re not from Montana,” said the Democratic operative. “No one is more Montana than Jon Tester.”

Ohio

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) arrives for an all-senator briefing at the Capitol in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, April 19, 2023, leaked in a Discord chat room by Jack Teshelia of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. discussed the document (Greg Nash)

Buckeye is filling in a political victory for incumbent Democrats in red states that Republicans are trying to overthrow as Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Oh) is trying to win a fourth term.

So far, two top-tier contenders, Matt Dolan and Bernie Moreno, who ran in 2022, have raced to replace Brown. .

While most are considered the frontrunners to beat Brown, questions remain given Davidson’s lack of financial ability or statewide name ID.

“It’s wide open, even wider than last time,” a second Republican operative told The Hill. “If you don’t have $10 million or more, it’s hardly reasonable. [to complete]It’s the first, second and third hurdle for everyone. “

Republicans find it hard to eliminate Brown, whoever shows up.

“Very tough,” a second operative said of how difficult it was to defeat Brown. “He never ran in the new Ohio, Ruby Red Ohio.

Arizona

Senator Kirsten Cinema, Arizona, arrives at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., for an all-senator briefing on Wednesday, April 19, 2023, according to documents leaked in a Discord chat room by Jack Teshelia of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. talked about. (Greg Nash)

The Arizona Senate election is by far the most complicated contest on this list.

Cinema of the Week once again disagreed when asked about her future plans during an interview.

But as it stands, a three-way race has formed between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D, Arizona) and an unnamed Republican to see if former Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake will seek the seat. murmured in the center.

If so, she has a better chance of winning the party’s nomination than Pima County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who officially opened the bid earlier this month.

But if she doesn’t, that opens the door to possible retaliation by Blake Masters, who lost to Senator Mark Kelly (D-Arizona) in 2022, and Jim Lamon, who lost Masters in the primary. is opened.

Meanwhile, the establishment remains hopeful that Karin Taylor-Robson, who lost to Lake in the Republican primary last summer, will run for office. I’m really thinking about it,” he said.

“It’s a real mess,” said the first Republican operative. “That field is far from the setting. .

Given the uncertainty surrounding cinema and Lake likely to struggle to gain moderate support, Gallego is seen as a favorite in the big races, but some numbers are all It does not exclude incumbent senators when it ends.

“The secret sauce is that she’s like Teflon. Nothing sticks to her. …But is she a spoiler or can she win? It’s too early to know.” said the Arizona-based Republican operative. She is smart and she will work hard. The question I’ve been asking is, how much does she want it?”

Democrats across the country still refuse to put a finger on the scale, and the Democratic Senate Election Committee is telling donors to stay low while they wait for cinema’s decision, Democratic operatives say. Said.

pennsylvania

Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.) attends a hearing before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee on Wednesday, March 22, 2023, on the upcoming price increase for Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. We are discussing (Greg Nash)

Of the five Democrats on this list, as much as Senator Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) is re-elected as Republicans prepare for a bruising preliminary battle between the party establishment and the hard-core right-wing faction. No one is in a good position to secure

Ask nearly every Republican in Keystone state and they say the Republican Party will vote for Casey if David McCormick, the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, who lost to Mehmet Oz in the state’s Senate primary last year, is not nominated. I would say that the chances of defeating the are zero.

For months, McCormick has said he is undecided about his candidacy, but in the meantime, he has met with party leaders across the state, published books, and done everything to prepare for his next candidacy. I’ve been to

He also has the full support of the NRSC and SLF.

One Pennsylvania-based Republican operative said, “He works hard to stand out, talks to the right people in the right place, and is ready to run the race he couldn’t last time.” Told. “[The 2022 primary] It wasn’t the race he built his base on. This time he has the bass.

But the potential primary run by state Senator Doug Mastriano (Republican), who defeated Gov. Josh Shapiro (Democrat) by nearly 15 points over his right to lead the state in November, remains a concern for many. . The party worried that if he is nominated, he will completely deprive the party of seats.

Even former President Trump is worried about the possibility, as Mastriano reportedly continues to hint at a possible bid.