Arizona is stepping up groundwater use and pausing construction in parts of its fast-growing cities to correct water overallocation.

Years in the making, a new model shows the availability of groundwater in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA). AMAs It covers an area of ​​5,600 square miles and has 4.6 million inhabitants. The Arizona Department of Water Resources used this model to predict groundwater conditions over the next 100 years. Studies have revealed excessive use of groundwater.

“If nothing is done, we could run short of groundwater supplies by 4% over the next 100 years,” Governor Katie Hobbs said at a news conference, announcing a moratorium on construction. He “suspends approval of new secure supply decisions that rely on groundwater pumping to avoid increasing future deficits.”

The announcement frustrated Mark Schnepf, who owns one of Arizona’s largest peach farms. His farm on Queen His Creek has been run by his family for nearly 82 years.

“I use my land as collateral for loans, but it has value because it has development opportunities,” Schnepf said. “If you take the water away from it and there are no opportunities for development, it will affect my ability to manage my farm because it will be difficult for me to get the financing I need to run the farm. I will put it away.”

Some farmers have given away rights to groundwater on agricultural land, but Schnepf said they would not give it away for development use. He estimates it will cost thousands of dollars to work with the city to secure water rights to maintain the value of the land.

“They don’t understand the complexity of how important it is to have groundwater available for development rights,” Schnepf says.

Developers rely on cheap groundwater to build homes outside major cities.

“There are other ways to meet the certificate requirements.” Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Bouchacke said so. “They can bring in non-groundwater resources from outside the AMA. They can take advantage of long-term storage credits that are already underground, and they can use recycled water.”

Hobbes said approvals for 80,000 residential developments that already have water security certificates will not be affected.

Phoenix is ​​the fifth largest city in the United States. Maricopa County, which Phoenix belongs to, added nearly 57,000 new residents in 2022, up 1.3% from the previous year. according to the census. Cities at the end of Metro Phoenix include Buckeye and Queen Creek. Those two cities had the highest population growth rate in the nation from July 2020 to July 2021.

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Buckeye Mayor Eric Osborne said the city has secured 23,000 single-family homes out of the 80,000 approved homes.

“Buckeye is poised for continued growth for at least the next decade,” Osborne said in a statement issued to Scripps News.

According to the city’s website, Buckeye is 14% developed and could see its population grow more than 13-fold, from an estimated 110,000 to 1.5 million. But with such a large population, it can be difficult to secure water.

The City of Queen Creek is 92% built with 15,000 developments reserved. Mayor Julia Wheatley said the next 10 years will be enough to keep her busy, and she added that she is working with developers to find alternative water sources to develop the remaining 8% of the city.

Arizona is short of housing Of the 270,000 units, Buckeye and Queen Creek combined secured 38,000 homes. It is unclear how long the suspension of construction work, which depends on groundwater, will last.

Many fear that the halt to development will push up home prices.

In May of this year, the average home price was Queen Creek was $621,000 buckeye$395,000, according to Redfin.

Both mayors downplayed the potential impact of the announcement on their cities.

“For Queen Creek, it’s not a big deal,” Wheatley said. “We have been planning to invest in renewable water resources for years, at least 10 years.”

Queen Creek Water Resources Director Paul Gardner said the city has spent millions of dollars over the years to diversify its water portfolio.

“The reliance on groundwater has moved from about 90% to about 50%,” Gardner said. “Over the next five years, our dependence on groundwater will be around 10% or 5%.”

The withdrawal from groundwater is expected to increase the price of water for residents.

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Gardner said Queen Creek budgeted $60 million for renewable energy supplies last year. This year he has a budget of $168 million, but next year he expects to spend another $100 million to $150 million.

That means residents will end up paying more for water, he said.

Ryan Mitchell, chief of hydrology at the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said it’s critical that the state act now to correct course after over-allocation of groundwater. He said changing water use could help replenish and recharge aquifers and rivers.

“Increase the use of recycled, abundant and renewable water. Use conservation techniques to reduce the amount needed to actually supply people. We will reduce it,” Mitchell said.

Agriculture consumes about 74% of water Arizona is down from 90% previously.

The landscape is changing in the Queen Creek area, known for its farmlands.

“Beautiful farmlands that we love, are so close and dear to our hearts are being transformed into homes,” Wheatley said.

While the move will reduce groundwater use, it puts the future of family farming in jeopardy.

“Farms require much more water than residential use, but we all have to eat,” Schnepf said.