Several states are likely to enact new congressional maps for 2024, forcing candidates to compete in new districts, while pickup opportunities will change across both parties in November. There is a possibility.
North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia have officially redistricted, while New York, Louisiana, and Florida are still drawing new congressional maps. Republicans may have some opportunities to gain ground thanks to North Carolina's new map, while Democrats are expected to gain ground in Alabama, New York and Louisiana.
“At the moment, North Carolina gives Republicans the lead, but Democrats may ultimately come out of this cycle with a net gain in redistricting,” said Sabato, a nonpartisan polling analyst. Kyle Kondik, editor-in-chief of Crystal Ball, told the newspaper. Caller News Foundation. “The overall fight for the House majority is a real mess.”
Democrats could lose House seats in North Carolina after the Republican-controlled state Legislature approved new maps in late October, and charges of gerrymandering are likely to be challenged in court. . The state Republican Party has argued that it expects the new districts to remain as they are because the maps were drawn in anticipation of court challenges. Democrats have challenged Republican-drawn maps in North Carolina three times since 2010. The state currently has 14 seats evenly distributed. Divided between Republicans and Democrats. (Related article: One state could upend Democrats' dreams of returning to power through redistricting)
Since the map was approved, three Democratic lawmakers from the state have announced their retirement, citing concerns about the new districts. kathy manning, wiley nickel and jeff jacksonchose instead to run for attorney general.
A federal court in early October approved Alabama's new congressional map, which includes a black-majority 2nd District that favors a Democratic resurgence in 2024. appointed Special master for redrawing map It also includes a second district with a majority black population. The original map for the Republican-controlled state Legislature was rejected by the Supreme Court in June, which ruled the plan violated the Voting Rights Act.
The Democratic Party is probably The race for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District would include all of Montgomery and parts of Mobile, which has a majority black population. according to Go to Cook Political Report. The move would give the district represented by Republicans Jerry Kahl and Barry Moore one super-red seat.
“Rather than address voters' concerns about mismanagement of the economy, borders, and crime, Democrats are appealing to tilt the playing field,” Jack Pandle, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, told DCNF. '' he said in a statement. “Republicans are more committed than ever to increasing their majority despite Democrats' legal termination over voters who reject extreme policies.”
#breaking news: Federal courts in Alabama select new congressional maps.
Alabama voters will vote under Improvement Plan 3 for the 2024 election. https://t.co/kTirw0ESlW pic.twitter.com/tqEwpS2Lms
— Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) October 5, 2023
A federal judge appointed by President Obama upheld the new plan on Dec. 28 after Democrats and voting rights groups challenged Georgia's maps drawn by Republicans. State lawmakers redrawn the map in a special session after a judge found in October that the Republican plan violated voting rules. Rights law. Republicans redrawn existing districts to maintain partisan control in the state at nine Republicans and five Democrats, but addressed the justices' concerns by creating a separate majority-black district.
Republicans have come up with a new plan to reshape the diverse 7th District on Atlanta's east side and create a predominantly black 6th District in the western suburbs. according to Go to Cook Political Report. This puts Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath of the 7th Congressional District in a difficult position heading into 2024.
Additionally, New York, Louisiana and Florida could approve new maps by November.
The New York Court of Appeals has granted the Democratic-controlled state Legislature the authority to redraw congressional districts for the next election in early December.
The court previously rejected the original 2022 map drawn by the Zoning Commission and approved by Democratic lawmakers, citing partisan gerrymandering. A special master was appointed to draw the maps fairly, triggering several competitive and high-profile Democratic primaries, and allowing Republicans to win in battleground districts.
New York State's Independent Redistricting Commission has until February 28 to present new maps for approval by the state Legislature, giving Democrats another chance to shape districts to their political advantage. there is a possibility.
“Right now, a redraw in New York has the best chance of changing the numbers. [Republicans] I might lose [three] or [four] ” Mike McKenna, Republican consultant and president of MWR Strategies, told DCNF.
Republican victories in New York state, particularly throughout Long Island, were essential for Republicans to gain a majority in the House in 2022.
Conversely, another Republican strategist, who spoke candidly about the race's dynamics on condition of anonymity, said that if Democrats had used the original map, New York Republican Sens. Nick Larota and George Santos , Anthony D'Esposito and Nicole Malliotakis would have won the seat. In 2022.
The strategist added that even if Democrats reverted to these “worst-case scenario” maps, Republicans would still be in a strong position to hold these seats.
Additionally, Republican Reps. Mike Lawler and Mark Molinaro are likely to move into the toss-up category, along with Republican Rep. Pat Ryan, the strategist said. Rep. Brandon Williams is the only Republican that strategists see as potentially in a “tough position” if the map is redrawn.
The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in early November that Louisiana's congressional map is racially gerrymandered, including two majority-black districts until Jan. 15. ordered the state legislature to redraw the border.
In its decision, the court cited a June Supreme Court ruling regarding the Alabama map and argued that the Louisiana map also violated the Voting Rights Act.
Kondik noted that Louisiana's new map could be similar to Alabama's and could give Democrats new support opportunities if approved by November.
“Fair maps that reflect our country's diversity and allow for equal representation in the House of Representatives are the cornerstone of our democracy,” Beto Shelton, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. told DCNF. “For us, the math is simple: If you have a district where all voices are equally represented, voters will say yes to Democrats who deliver meaningful results to help working families. , would say “no” to the chaos and dysfunction of the extreme MAGA Republican Party. They are incapable of governing. ”
Florida Court of Appeals reversed A lower court ruling in early December struck down the Republican-drawn congressional map as violating the state amendment.
A circuit court judge ruled in September that the new district, backed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, violated the state's Fair Districts Amendment. according to Go to Cook Political Report. The correction bar maps from “decreased”.[ing]the ability of minorities to elect representatives of their own choice; sentence To read.
Democrats and voting rights groups have appealed to the state Supreme Court, which is likely to favor Republicans because the court is packed with conservative DeSantis appointees.
The 2022 map in question redraws Florida's 5th Congressional District, which was previously 46% black and represented by Democrat Al Lawson. The seat, currently held by Republican Rep. John Rutherford, was moved from “toss-up” to “likely Republican” following an appeals court ruling.
Matt Dole, an Ohio-based Republican strategist, told DCNF, “If you look at all the lawsuits that are still pending, some may not be resolved by the 2024 deadline.” . “But if all of this goes down and everyone goes with the Democrats, I think the potential number of seats for the Democrats on paper is about eight to 10 seats at most, but I don't think that's going to be more than they have. On paper, it's in the red because of the election situation. ”
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