A recent poll from the Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found widespread fraud in the 2020 election. Whether this proves the presidential election was stolen is up for debate, but it certainly points to serious problems with mail-in voting.
The poll was conducted in the first week of December and 1,085 people responded. 30% of respondents claimed to have voted by mail in 2020. Some questions were asked only to mail-in voters. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.
The poll attracted a lot of attention, with President Trump posting, “This is the biggest news of the year!” Headline results:
- 21% of mail-in voters answered affirmatively to the question, “Did you fill out some or all of your ballot on behalf of a friend or family member?”
- 17% said they signed “a ballot or ballot envelope on behalf of a friend or family member.”
- 17% of all respondents said they voted “in a state where they are no longer a permanent resident.”
- 8% said they were offered payment or compensation for voting by a “friend, family member, or organization.”
The first thing to consider is that an incorrect response may be made intentionally. Some respondents may have been reluctant to report misconduct, even in a survey. But we also saw Trump supporters giving answers that undermined the credibility of the contest. Official error bars may not be accurate.
Some of these scams are not so heinous. Helping parents or grandparents who are confused about marking or signing a ballot at the post office would be considered fraud. The 1 in 5 Voter Fraud heading does not include changing votes or voting by ineligible persons.
Additionally, cheating does not necessarily benefit either party. Even if Democrats and Republicans were equally likely to commit inadvertent fraud, there could be a second-order advantage for President Biden, who received a higher percentage of mail-in votes than in-person votes. . Therefore, eliminating all voter fraud could have changed some of the results in battleground states.
My biggest concern is paying for votes. Vote selling has some benefits, but is currently not allowed. Voting by mail allows voters to show others how they voted and allows votes to be purchased. However, survey responses may be based on joking offers from relatives and friends.
The fraud allegations by President Trump, Rudy Guiliani and Sidney Powell involved fake ballot boxes and fraudulent voting machines. Although the study shows no evidence of such fraud, it clearly demonstrates the vulnerability of mail-in voting. That in the voting process there will be fraudulent votes of 1 vote to 5 votes does not inspire confidence. And since inadvertent cheating is so easy, intentional cheating should also be possible.
Thanks to mail-in voting, more than 20 million more Americans were able to vote in 2020 than in 2016. Economics predicts that more people will vote (or do something) if costs fall. Changing the method of voting (such as mail-in voting, electronic voting, or making Election Day a holiday) that increases turnout and results in a different outcome than if there were fewer voters is not fraud.
The unfamiliar can be scary, so many Americans are understandably concerned about the safety of voting by mail. These concerns, even if unfounded, are heartfelt. However, these concerns were not taken seriously or patiently addressed. Instead, anyone who expressed concerns was smeared as an election denier.
I think President Trump took advantage of concerns about the integrity of the election. The promised proof of fraud was never produced. And since Rudy Giuliani is being sued for bankruptcy for defamation, I assume there is no evidence of collusion.
What can be done to ensure elections? I do not believe that eliminating voting by mail (or opposing technology in general) is the way forward. Continuously updating voter registries should reduce voting in unpopulated states. Citizens should be asked to vote by mail. Justin Haskins of the Heartland Institute also suggests using a free notary service to notarize mail-in ballots.
Democracy ultimately reduces political conflict. People avoid conflict through extrajudicial means and wait until the next election. If we are to consider other Americans our fellow citizens, we need to ensure that everyone can vote and have confidence in the process. We are far from this goal.
Daniel Sutter is the Charles G. Koch Professor of Economics at Troy University's Manuel H. Johnson Center for Political Economy and host of the TrojanVision Conversation. The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Troy University.
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