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Leaving California? Not the well-off and well-educated. But will they stay?

Thomas Kowal knew the cost of living in Los Angeles would be high. However, he was surprised at how steep the slope was.

Kowal, 25, had lived most of his life on the East Coast, but wanted a change of pace and wanted to earn a similar salary after getting a job, so he enrolled in UCLA's toxicology doctoral program. It is said that he applied for. Once she graduated, she could afford the California lifestyle.

“When I was here for a few days doing research, I didn't notice anything that you always see once you start riding, such as gas prices and sales prices,'' he says. “I definitely see some red flags, but I was encouraged to ignore them because I knew it was in my best interest to live here.”

Despite California's high cost of living, it continues to attract more educated and higher-paid residents.

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New census data discounts the idea that California's housing and affordability crisis is alienating educated residents and creating a so-called “brain drain.”

The numbers suggest California's strong economy in areas such as technology, health care and entertainment, as well as its lauded higher education network, continue to attract people.

But several factors, particularly high housing prices, could still cause people like Kowal to leave California for places where incomes and degrees can buy more.

Nearly two-thirds of people who moved to California from other states in 2022 had a bachelor's degree or higher, as did more than half of those who moved from other countries, according to census data.

According to the data, the state's population decreased from 2021 to 2022, but the number of people with bachelor's degrees increased by 1.6% and the number of people with graduate degrees increased by 2.6%.

The number of Californians age 25 and older with less than a college degree decreased by 1.4% over the same period.

New immigrants from other states are skewed toward higher education, with 105,000 bachelor's degrees and a similar number of graduate or professional degrees (91,000) coming from other parts of the United States.

People from other countries also receive a disproportionate amount of education, but many in that group have lower incomes and lower education. Census data shows that 28% of people who came to California from abroad were below the poverty line in 2022, compared to 12% statewide in 2021.

Over the past five years, California has experienced a net loss of college graduates in exchanges with other states, a “reversal of a long-standing pattern,” said Hans Johnson, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. Stated.

Similar to the population decline seen during California's exodus, the loss of educated residents has been “significantly reduced,” he said. At its peak, nearly 90,000 more people graduated than enrolled, a “pretty remarkable number.'' In 2022, the amount of outflows decreased, with a net loss of just over 30,000 people.

The loss of educated workers led to discussions about the possibility of a “brain drain” amid the state's broader population problems. But Johnson said the state's previous pattern of attracting educated workers is starting to emerge again after the disruption caused by the pandemic.

“California has long tended to attract young college graduates in their early 20s who are just starting out in their careers, and that demographic is becoming purely positive again,” he said.

He said the state's economy is “growing fastest for highly educated workers,” who are rewarded with high wages. “They are coming knowing that housing will be more expensive,” but they have the skills and jobs to be able to afford it.

This movement is in response to another piece of the population puzzle: the loss of high-income Californians and their tax revenue.

People who moved from the Golden State to states like Florida and New Hampshire between 2020 and 2021 earned much more than the median Californian, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service.

Experts say educated people arriving in California and students on their way to higher-paying jobs could fill the gap.

Kowal, who grew up in Hadley, Massachusetts, and attended college in Atlanta, sees the state's housing and housing affordability crisis from the perspective of a student who earns a $47,000-a-year doctoral scholarship. There is.

The only thing keeping him in California, he said, is to get a job that pays $120,000 after he graduates in two or three years. Still, that may not be enough.

“Between gas prices, taxes, rising food prices, and rent, I think everyone's pockets are being touched,” he says. “In my opinion, this experience is not worth it. That's why I pay such a high asking price to stay here.”

Still, Kowal said he has many friends who will ultimately stay here, especially those from California.

He said he would consider moving to San Diego, which he looks forward to visiting when he has free time. But when asked if he would take a similarly-paying job in San Diego or Atlanta, he answered, after a long pause, “Yeah, I'd probably go to Atlanta.”

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