A new memo released Monday provides data that suggests Democratic candidates should not be the presumptive representative for the redrawn 2nd Congressional District.

In October, the 2nd Congressional District was redrawn to include a higher percentage of black voters, giving Alabama its second majority black district. Since then, a number of candidates have filed to run for the House district, with the Democratic candidate believed to be the favorite.

It has been widely believed that a black Democratic candidate is poised to win the 2nd District Congressional race because black voters tend to vote primarily for Democrats. But new data analyzed by Blue Lab Analytics and the SPLC Action Fund has some concerns that suggest the Democratic candidate's victory is not a foregone conclusion.

Issues highlighted include low voter registration, particularly among young blacks and other people of color, and low voter turnout.

The district has more than 500,000 voting-age residents, of which 450,000 are designated as active registered voters. However, BlueLabs estimates that there are approximately 155,924 people who are either unregistered or need to reregister to vote. As mentioned earlier, most unregistered voters are young people of color.

Black voters hold a slim majority of about 51 percent, and Democratic-leaning black voters hold a slim majority of 53 percent. Three-quarters of black voters and three-fifths of voters under 35 are expected to support Democrats, according to the data.

Turnout in the last election could indicate what voters will do in the 2024 Congressional primaries. Approximately 300,000 registered voters participated in the 2020 presidential election. Less than 20 percent of voters were under 35, and half were black voters.

Given the attention that comes with so many participants in a presidential election, it might not be difficult to assume that turnout would be low in primaries without polarizing numbers.

Brandon Jones, director of political campaigns for the SPLC Action Fund, said the group is calling for more efforts ahead of the primary registration deadline to address these issues.

“The SPLC Action Fund will intensify voter education, engagement, and registration efforts ahead of the February 19, 2024 primary registration deadline to ensure better representation for all voters in the 2nd District. I am calling for this.n.d. district,” Jones said.

With this data in mind, it will be interesting to see how voters react to the candidates and their engagement strategies as the March 5th primary gradually approaches.