On Thursday afternoon, former President Donald Trump was convicted in New York of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, making him the first former president to be convicted of a felony.

Generally, the betting markets are a pretty good indicator of who the next president will be. In 2020, just a few days before the election, Many books The poll predicts that President Biden will have a -250 lead (estimated probability 71.4%), while President Trump will have a lead of around +190 (estimated probability approximately 34%).

Things could change dramatically in six months, and the long-term impact of a guilty verdict on markets remains to be seen, but Trump's chances of winning the 2024 election were slightly affected on Thursday.

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Most markets gave the former president roughly a 53 percent chance of winning. Election Betting Odds.comNews of the guilty verdict dropped his chances of winning to about 50%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, President Biden on Thursday had just a 38% chance of winning, a figure that rose to more than 40% overnight.

Despite the conviction, Trump still holds a sizable advantage in the odds markets with roughly six months to go until the election.

Michael Browner is a senior sports analyst and contributor to Yellow Hammer News. You can follow him on Twitter. translation: Listen to him weekdays from 6am to 9am. “of “Opening Kickoff” on WNSP-FM 105.5 Available online for free.