WASHINGTON —

vice president kamala harris big economic speech This week didn't break any major policy ground, but it provided a clear picture of which voters she's targeting in the final weeks of the presidential campaign.

Harris reiterated several progressive ideals. “I have been and continue to be a strong supporter of workers and unions,” she declared, renewing her call for federal legislation against price gouging by big corporations.

But much of the speech, from her repeated use of the word “realistic” to a broader discussion of supporting small businesses, convinced moderate voters that she would not move radically to the left as president. The purpose was to reassure her.

This tone may disappoint some progressive Democrats who have argued that Harris should take a bolder stand. But that approach is a perfect fit for Harris, who has been a politician for most of her career. Prefer carefully calibrated steps to swinging for the fences.

It's also a strategic choice for her campaign as it considers how best to sway the final voters in battleground states who will decide the outcome of the election.

What Harris proposes

During his campaign four years ago and in the first few months of his administration, President Biden laid out the following policies: ambitious progressive agenda.

Part of his wish list became lawincluding efforts to support Expanding subsidies for renewable energy and health insurance. Many other things failed in the Senate, where Democrats controlled it by just one vote.

Harris proposed that a more modest planBut it nevertheless forms a sharp contrast with: Proposal from former President Trump.

President Trump's economic policy, which he also outlined in Wednesday's speech, combines huge tax increases on all types of imports with various proposed income tax cuts. President Trump has argued that higher tariffs would stimulate domestic manufacturing, but various economists have warned that higher tariffs would significantly increase prices.

Harris advocates for several tax cuts for middle- and low-income Americans. The list starts with Expansion of tax credits for households with childrenCongress tentatively passed it in 2021, but it was not renewed. money is reduce the number of children living in poverty According to research, about half.

Harris plans to add a second tax break of $6,000 in the first year of a child's life. He also plans to expand the Earned Income Tax Credit, which supplements the wages of low-income workers.

Overall, the Harris campaign estimates that about one-third of Americans would benefit.

On health care, Harris plans to make permanent health insurance subsidies that are set to expire at the end of 2025. This will result in a significant reduction in national insurance premiums. Over 21 million Americans These are people who don't have insurance through their jobs and buy insurance on the Obamacare marketplace.

Housing/industrial policy

Harris' biggest policy innovation will be in housing, which has emerged as a top concern for voters, especially young people, but has not been the subject of sustained federal attention for decades. .

Harris has proposed several measures to increase housing supply, with the goal of building an additional 3 million homes.

“Increasing housing supply will help bring down house prices,” she said in a speech. This may seem like Economics 101, but Many voters were skeptical.

Realistically, increases in supply will not have a significant impact on prices for several years. Meanwhile, Harris will also be giving out $25,000 in assistance to first-time homebuyers. In a high-cost market like Los Angeles, this may not seem like a big deal. However, nationwide, more than half of all homes are Currently on sale for less than $420,000Harris' offer would represent a significant portion of the potential down payment.

Finally, Harris embraced several ideas for the federal government to foster industries that could be important to the nation's economic future. In her speech, she specifically mentioned biomanufacturing, aerospace, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, blockchain, and clean energy “from advanced batteries to geothermal to advanced nuclear power.”

This kind of targeted government aid, which experts call industrial policy, has long been out of fashion in Washington, but it has made a comeback under the Biden administration, and Harris will continue to do so.

“China is not moving slowly. It is not. And we cannot afford it either,” she said, adding that she would speed up the process of vetting new projects, obtaining permits and making decisions. I swore.

“Patience may be a virtue, but not when it comes to job creation or America's competitiveness.”

Why is it important in elections?

Harris is almost certain to win more votes than Trump.

Democrats not only won the popular vote in President Trump's last two elections, but they have won seven of the past eight presidential elections (excluding 2004). This is an unparalleled record of success in American politics, but there is currently no evidence to support it. This year suggests something different.

But as everyone reading this knows, winning the presidency requires winning enough states to get a majority of the electors. According to current opinion polls, the race remains close in seven key states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Harris will need a large turnout of Democratic voters to win in these states. But her campaign has clearly indicated that she believes she needs to appeal to voters outside the Democratic base.

One target group is voters who have traditionally supported the Republican Party but have been alienated by President Trump, such as those who supported former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in this year's Republican primary.

Although Democrats persuaded them at last month's convention, many remain sensitive to Trump's accusation that Harris is a radical with left-wing economic policies.

young voters

This also applies to young voters, including many young Latinos, another important group.

Most of those voters probably won't vote for Trump, but whether they will or not is an open question. Many people have great concerns about the cost of living, Expressing concerns about Mr. Harris It will cause new inflation.

The semiannual Harvard Youth Poll released Tuesday found: Among 18- to 29-year-olds, Harris leads Trump 61% to 30%. People who might vote.

That's much better than Biden's ranking among young voters this spring, but it's still several points behind the Democratic lead found in the same poll four years ago. Polls strongly suggest that economic concerns are the main reason Harris remains behind.

Polls show Harris has a strong lead among young women, 70% to 23%. Among young men, her majority is smaller at 53% to 36%.

Young men and women trust Harris more than Trump when it comes to abortion and to protect democracy and health care. But when it comes to the economy, young men (42% to 34%) say they have more confidence in Trump, while young women, by a narrow margin, say they have more confidence in Harris.

Young people who aren't enrolled in college or don't have a degree also trust Trump more than Harris on the economy by a narrow margin (39% vs. 31%). Opinions among young Latinos were nearly even.

a Recent research among Latino voters A study by Pew Research Center found a similar pattern. Polls show Harris leading Trump 57% to 39%, and Biden beat Trump 61% to 36 in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of voters that year. It's the same as the % difference. To win in a state like Arizona, Harris will likely need to widen that lead at least a little.

Polls show that the economy is a top issue for Latino voters, and voters are almost evenly split on which of the two candidates is better able to address economic issues. On most other issues, including abortion, health care and immigration, Harris had a significant advantage.

To encourage these voters to vote for her, Harris' campaign adopted the two-pronged approach outlined in her speech. The idea is to offer concrete benefits that will solve the problems voters face, especially the high cost of housing, while also reassuring them that she has won. The inflation they fear will not return.

There is evidence that the strategy is working. Many recent polls show that President Trump's once-strong lead in managing the economy has shrunk.

republican senate

Another reason Harris is sticking to her rather limited economic proposals is that she has little chance of getting a more ambitious agenda through Congress.

If Harris wins the White House, there is a good chance that Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives. The outlook for the Democratic-controlled Senate is even grimmer.

Democrats currently control the Senate with 51 votes. He is almost certain to lose West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin III is retiring. And in Montana, where Republican support is increasing, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is trailing his challenger in recent polls.

The party is pouring more resources into Texas and Florida, where Republican incumbents Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott could be vulnerable. However, it remains difficult for Democrats to win either race.

Even with a Republican Senate, Ms. Harris will have significant influence on several issues. The fact that nearly all of the Trump tax cuts expire at the end of 2025 will give Democrats room to negotiate. However, it is highly unlikely that any major new programs will be enacted.

In 2020, many Democrats looked to the chaos of the Trump administration and hoped for a landslide victory that could propel a wave of progressive reforms through Congress.

But as this week's speeches showed, four years on, the party enters the final week of the election in a calmer mood, with candidates who are temperamentally inclined towards gradual change and a political climate that does not allow for anything else. I'm welcoming you.

What else should I read?

This week's poll: Again, tons of new votes. Marist College releases polls for Arizona, Georgia, and North CarolinaI found a dead heat with all three. Harvard University Institute of Politics A survey was conducted among young voters.as it was CNN. NBC decided Harris was in the lead. Nationally. and muhlenberg college It was among several new polls showing tied or near-tied scores in Pennsylvania. And USC released a new set California Congressional District Pollwhich could determine control of the House.

Great article from LA Times: President Trump’s rhetorical stroll: “genius” or a sign of cognitive decline?

California Governor's Debate: It's still early, but there's a line up. some Gubernatorial candidates plan debate The event will be livestreamed by the LA Times on Sunday

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