NBC national political reporter Steve Kornacki warned Sunday that Democrats are losing their lead in registration numbers and among Hispanic voters, potentially hurting Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania. .
Polls in battleground states show a close race between Harris and former President Donald Trump, and political experts consistently point out how close the race is. Kornacki said on “Meet the Press” that while Harris maintains a slight lead over Trump nationally, looking at the voting conditions in key battleground states, the odds are against her in the 2024 election. He said there is a path for Trump to win.
“If Trump wins Georgia, where he has a 1.5 point lead in average points, if he wins North Carolina, which is literally tied in the polls right now, and which Trump won in 2020, these battleground states That’s the only state that Trump carried in that state four years ago,” Kornacki said. “Then all President Trump would need is Georgia and North Carolina, plus Pennsylvania, where Harris currently has a slight average lead. If he wins one, he’ll reach 270 votes. So that’s important for him, and it’s important for Democrats to stop Trump from doing that in Pennsylvania.”
The NBC reporter highlighted that Democratic registration numbers in Pennsylvania have been cut by “two-thirds” since 2016, and has since become the primary state Democrats need to perform well in order to win the state. Discussed the county. (Related: Voters in Arab battleground state say they cannot ‘in good conscience’ support Harris over Israel position)
“You’re looking at Pennsylvania’s party registration, but look at this. When Donald Trump first came on the scene in 2016, the Democratic lead in Pennsylvania and party registration was over 900,000 votes. I did.” [in] 2020. Look, in 2024, that population will be cut by two-thirds, down to 330,000 people. “Democrats have had a little bit of a boost since Kamala Harris took over the membership rolls, but the overall trend is that registration is becoming more competitive for Republicans,” Kornacki explained.
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“Believe it or not, there are only 10 counties in the entire state where Democrats are doing better during the Trump era than they were before Trump, but some of those counties are very large There are also counties. Look at those four color counties just outside of Philadelphia, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery, and Bucks, where more than a fifth of the votes statewide will come from.” He continued.
Kornacki added that former President Barack Obama won Pennsylvania, noting that Democrats currently have an advantage in the suburbs. But an NBC reporter said that despite Harris’ lead among suburban, college-educated voters, Trump is gaining in rural counties as Hispanic voters increasingly gravitate towards her. He pointed out that the gap within the state is narrowing.
“Some people refer to this as Pennsylvania’s Latino Belt. These counties have small to medium-sized cities with rapidly growing Latino populations, and are more popular among Hispanic voters than they were in 2020 or 2016. “People are talking about President Trump getting better,” Kornacki said.
“Here are some cities in the Latino Belt, like Reading, Pennsylvania, which is 70% Latino. In 2020, Democrats had an overwhelming lead. Joe Biden won by 45 points. We won, but look at it,” Kornacki concluded. “That’s down almost 20 points from 2012. Hazleton, Pennsylvania, which is more than 60% Hispanic, narrowly won for Democrats and is now in double digits for Trump. Allentown is close for Democrats. I felt depressed.”
Recent average polls conducted by RealClear polling According to the graph, Trump leads by a narrow margin of 0.06 to 1.5 points in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris leads by a narrow margin of 0.7 to 1.1 points in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. are. Additionally, according to RealClearPolling, average data shows that the two political leaders are currently tied in Pennsylvania.
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