In 2018, when Kirsten Cinema was still a Democrat, she campaigned for the Senate as a self-described “Arizona Independent,” becoming the first Democrat to win a seat in 30 years.

Five years later, progressives are betting that Arizona, longtime Republican stronghold, has moved so far left that the Democrats no longer need to rely on iconoclasts like cinema to win. Rep. Ruben Gallego Launches Campaign For her seat last week, she painted the race as a choice between inaccessible incumbents overseen by specific interests and challengers who would become lobbyists for working families.

I have a few questions that need to be answered for next year’s election. Mainly whether or not Gallego cleared the field. How much influence former President Trump will have in the Republican primary, and what role cinema, if any, will play in a potential three-man race. It may be that it is somewhat purple.

“I wish I could say Arizona is blue and all the good work we’ve done is convincing people that progressive ideas are right, but Arizona still isn’t. No,” said the Phoenix-based Democratic strategist and longtime cinema advocate. “Arizona is no longer progressive, but it continues to reject extremism.”

After decades of Republican dominance in the state, Democrats have won many statewide victories in recent elections. This includes Joe Biden’s presidential victory, Mark Kelly’s 2020 and his 2022 victory in the Senate, and sweeping Democrat victories for Governor, Senate, Secretary of State, and Governor. The Attorney General will contest his November pro-Trump candidate.

Arizona is important to Democrats, who hold a two-seat majority in the Senate and will defend 23 of the 34 seats for re-election next year. His three of those contests were in Ohio, West Virginia, and Montana, which Trump won in 2020.

Cinema has not announced whether it plans to run for re-election, and her office declined to comment. and said it was too early to talk about politics.

“The campaign’s inexhaustible focus on politics is why so many people hate politics,” Cinema said on a Phoenix radio station Friday before Gallego’s announcement. “We just came through a really tough election cycle, so I think most Arizonans want a break.”

Cinema supporters say they expect her to run. She has about $8 million in campaign funds at her disposal.

Democratic strategist John Labombard, who has worked with Cinema and other moderate Democrats, said he would be able to contrast himself with “extremists” on either side of him politically. .

“What she said about the broken partisan political system will resonate with many independents,” he said. , but Kyrsten is in a very good position.”

When Cinema announced last month that it was leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent — framed the decision as an effort to withdraw from partisan politics — some were angry, but few were surprised.

“More and more Arizonans, people like me, don’t feel we fit neatly into either party’s box,” she told CNN at the time.

Independents outnumber Democrats in Arizona. Of the approximately 4.2 million registered voters, 34.7% are Republicans, 34% are independents, and 30.5% are Democrats.

Cinema’s approval ratings rose 13 points to 42% among independents and 5 points to 43% among Republicans after she announced she was leaving the party. January Morning Consult PollHer approval ratings for Democrats have dropped by 12% and to 30% for Democrats.

While some Democrats are concerned about splitting votes in a three-way race, Gallego’s supporters say Cinema doesn’t have enough support to ruin the race. claims that

“Ruben Gallego can win this race with or without cinema,” said Rebecca Katz, a Democratic strategist who works for Gallego’s campaign. “Democrats are pretty united in the disappointment of Senator Cinema and how she broke her promise.” He said he raised more than a dollar.

A former progressive activist and member of the Green Party, Cinema has shown a more moderate and independent trend throughout his five years in the Senate. She was one of her eight Democrats to vote against adding a minimum wage hike to the 2021 pandemic aid package, and Senator Joe Manchin III (DW.V. ) to thwart efforts to end the filibuster. Most bills clear her 60-vote hurdle before being considered.

In the final session of Congress, where Democrats regained control of the Senate, cinema said her party passed last year’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the bipartisan gun safety bill, and the bill to boost semiconductors. Assisted in negotiating some of the most important laws. Manufactured in the USA.

At the same time, she has used her influence as a moderate in an equally divided chamber to force her party into painful concessions. To secure her votes on last year’s bills on inflation cuts, tax reform, health care and climate change, Democrats trimmed provisions that allowed Medicare to directly negotiate the price of drugs, allowing private equity investment. protected the carry interest loophole used by professionals to tax their rewards. at a low rate.

As cinema’s reputation grew, Democrats grew angry with her. She and Manchin tried to bring down the cost of Build Back Better, but Biden’s $3.5 trillion social safety net bill fell through finished. Arizona’s Living United for Change protesters followed her to the restrooms of Arizona State University, where she taught in the sociology department. jobs.

Some of her former staffers and supporters launched changes to the Arizona 2024 Political Action Committee to first and now replace cinema. Sacha Haworth, an adviser to the group responsible for communicating her 2018 campaign for Sinema, said donations surged 600% of her 24 hours after Gallego announced.

“Whether it’s the primary or the generals, there was a lot of energy to beat her, and now they have a face they can turn to her opponent,” Howarth said. “It used to be an abstract concept.”

In his launch video, Gallego focused on the financial struggles of growing families and presented himself as an advocate for people living paycheck to paycheck. I have just returned from the elite gathering of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“There are no lobbyists for working families,” Gallego said in the announcement video. “If you are more likely to meet the powerful than the powerless, you are doing the job wrong.”

Katz, who helped elect Democratic Senator John Fetterman in Pennsylvania last year, said the lessons from the 2022 cycle are that voters seem to understand what they’re going through. He said he wanted a candidate who was visible.

“Washington is focused on labels, but voters seem to want candidates who they actually seem to care about,” Katz said.

Meanwhile, Republicans are trying to see Gallego’s candidacy as chaotic for Democrats.

“The Democratic civil war continues in Arizona,” said Philip Lettsow, spokesman for the Senate Republican campaign division. Senate Majority Leader: “Chuck Schumer has a choice: stand up to radical Reuben Gallego with an open border, or stand with incumbent Senator Kirsten Cinema.”

When asked whether she would endorse Cinema or the Democratic candidate, Schumer (D-New York) told reporters last week that she was a good member of the Senate but that it was “too early to make a decision.” rice field.

Most Democratic senators have avoided saying whether they would support Cinema if it decided to run for re-election.

Republicans, on the other hand, could soon face internal strife. Several Republicans who lost statewide elections in 2022 are also considering running for the Senate in 2024, according to news reports. Karin Taylor-Robson, a former member of the state board of trustees who lost the Republican gubernatorial primary to Lake. and Jim Lamon, a solar energy executive who lost to the Masters in the Senate primary.

Other candidates include freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who voted for Biden in Southwest Arizona in 2020, and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

Republican strategist and former chief of staff to former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, Daniel Scarpinato, said Republicans should run as if they need to get as much support as possible in the general election. rice field.

“Assuming she doesn’t stay and needs to win 50, she should be in this race.[% of the vote] Plus one,” he said. “If she stays, she will very likely win more votes than the Republicans in the general election, making it all the more important for the Republican Party to nominate a strong candidate.”

Trump still dominates Republican primary voters, but it is unclear if he will intervene in the primary while he is campaigning for himself. It was considered an important test of information strength. Trump has endorsed candidates in his race for top states who question or deny his 2020 election results, which he lost to Biden.

“If there’s one thing we’ve learned in the last three elections here in Arizona, [it’s that] Arizona is a conservative state, but it’s not Trump,” said Phoenix-based Republican strategist Barrett Merson.