In relation to his evolved attitude and policies related to tariffs, what most people tend to forget about Donald Trump, or in many cases, simply ignore it, is that he, by his nature, is a deal maker by his very nature. It is in his bones to negotiate transactions using leverage tools, and as President of the United States he has more powerful leverage tools than any other human on Earth.
Trump’s political opponents and US trading partners ignore his basic negotiation strategies that he laid out in multiple books. That strategy involves force the negotiation counterparty to move in his direction and betting an unfair position well beyond the actual end result they want to achieve to correct his positioning until they reach the desired outcome. (Related: David Blackmon: OPEC offers a stunning responsibilities to the head of global energy agency)
So, for example, a 25% tariff called when importing steel would be 10% tariff after a month, and could be completely eliminated in response to counterparty response a few weeks later. After all, the net impact on the economy and individual companies is primarily a temporary loss of certainty in their ability to plan their business, but otherwise it is not.
But even if Trump’s tariffs remain in place, overall market dynamics and competition tend to limit negative economic impacts. When Trump raised tariffs on imports of Chinese goods during his first presidency, critics moaned that they had disastrous consequences related to inflation and economic growth.
In fact, this impact was so unnecessarily negligible that these and other Trump tariffs were held throughout the Biden presidency and remained intact today.
When Trump called a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports on March 12, some oil and gas industry executives lamented that they would have a disastrous effect on their revenues. but, Q1 2025 Energy Survey Only 7% of the executives of oil field suppliers surveyed by the Dallas Federal Reserve this week said tariffs have more impact than a minor impact on customer demand, while 37% said tariffs have no effect at all or in fact increase demand.
Even with all the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariff move, the US daily rig Counts maintained by the embellus It has actually risen since January 1st.
President Trump has pledged to invoke similar 25% tariffs on automobile imports from Canada and other countries starting April 1. Flavio Volpe, president of the Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association I told the interviewer in CBC News Network As a result, the entire auto parts supply chain between the US and Canada will be shut down.
However, there is little reason to believe something so dramatic will happen.
The reason is very simple. Trump and the United States retain almost all the actual leverage in these international trading relationships. And despite Liberal Prime Minister Mark Kearney’s strong rhetorical candidate, Canada and its companies will need access to far more US markets than US companies need access to the Canadian market. It was designed to encourage better efforts to stop the flow of fentanyl and immigration into the United States, as witnessed in the president’s previous tariffs in both Canada and Mexico. These governments acted very quickly in the direction Trump wanted. (Related: Mexico seizes nearly $40,000,000,000,000 females after Trump forces him to act on drug trafficking)
The overall point is this. The world will never end due to Trump’s tariff stance. The supply chain will not close, energy costs will not suddenly pass through the roof, the economy will not cut hundreds of thousands of jobs, and dogs and cats will not live together.
Perhaps we will see governments from other countries moving to meet Trump’s goals. It will result in a rapid reduction, halt, or complete elimination of these tariffs. Together with Trump’s “America First” agenda, the end result will see US and US businesses in a stronger economic position than they enjoyed before.
All this is highly predictable for the few who spent time understanding Trump’s tactical behavior. For those who haven’t done it, you’ll panic and there’s not much you can do about it, but you’ll ignore them.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialised in public policy and communication.
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