The presentation focused on potential fires on the southern and western slopes of the San Francisco Peaks. His engineering firm, JE Fuller, shared a model of potential burn severity for fires in a given area, as well as a model of potential post-fire flooding. Although preliminary, the results of the model were good enough to attract the attention of regional leaders.

“It’s ugly, folks,” said Lucinda Andreani, the county’s flood control district director. “The gravity of how this matter is managed and the impact it will have on Flagstaff in the long term is significant.”

Modeling covered four different scenarios assessing fires in three separate areas of the Upper Rio Basin and a fourth worst case scenario assessing fires on 21,500 acres across the basin.

Joe Loverich, project manager at JE Fuller, said:

For comparison, the 2022 tunnel fire burned about 19,000 acres, and the pipeline fire a few months later burned another 26,500 acres.

Based on the expected severity of burns in this worst-case scenario, flooding from two inches of rain on the burn scar would flow through downtown Flagstaff, through Rio, through downtown, through Lorne. over” will send a considerable amount of water. In a tree on the east side of town,” said Loverich. “We’ve followed modeling all the way to his I-40.”

Loverich adds: no. However, it is a good representation of the likelihood of fires occurring in these areas. “

In addition, the county has begun the process of working with the Economic Policy Institute at Northern Arizona University to develop estimates of how such a scenario would impact Flagstaff economically. Costs include restoration, loss of property value, flood damage, loss of tourism revenue, loss of sales tax revenue, etc.

Based on studies of similar economic impacts, such as one developed to assess fire and flood events on Bill Williams Mountain, the county’s director of forest restoration, Jay Smith, has suggested that major fires on the peak would We estimate the economic impact to exceed $1 billion.

“Probably over $2 billion,” Smith said.

Overall, the risks associated with this worst-case scenario have prompted county leaders to underscore the importance of strong precautionary measures, especially in the area of ​​forest restoration to reduce fuel loads associated with high-severity wildfires. enough to do

“What we now understand is that we have dealt with these fires many times, but the costs of dealing with fires and post-fire floods are sometimes 25 times more than they would otherwise be. It’s going to take 30 times as long, and we’re going to take the lead and go out there and treat it,” Smith said.

Aggressive forest treatment at The Peak, like other forest treatments across 21,500 acres, will be a significant undertaking, including steep-grade logging (which, Smith estimates, could cost $60 million alone). prize.

“It can be a pretty high price tag,” said Smith.

To that end, Coconino County has been very active in securing funding for both flood mitigation and reforestation in the area. Recently, the Arizona Department of Forest Fire Management (ADFFM) announced an agreement to allocate approximately $11 million to Coconino County.

It also announced that the US Forest Service will provide $42 million for forest restoration work, and an additional $9 million from the Emergency Watershed Protection Program will fund flood mitigation in the Pipeline East Flood Corridor.

Patrice Horstmann, Chair of the County Board of Supervisors, said:

While these funds will be spread across multiple fire- and flood-affected areas, Coconino County stands ready to spend at least $30 million toward the goal of costly, steep-slope reforestation of San Francisco Peaks. .

“But the whole area needs to be treated to reduce the overall risk of fires in that area and the eventual risk of flooding and economic impact after wildfires,” Andreani said. “This will require partnerships with districts, cities and forest departments, and funding from all parties.”

Forest Service leaders have already announced ties with partnerships committed to processing the western slopes of the peak, Smith said.

“They are committed to focusing on the same areas,” Smith said. “We are meeting with them and preparing the project so that we can start working on this as soon as possible.”

He added that the county is also considering working with other partner organizations such as ADFFM, the National Forest Foundation and Conservation, as well as private partners such as the Arizona Snowbowl.

“This mountain draws people to Flagstaff and our tourism industry,” Smith said. “We want to see [private industry] Please join us.

Historically, it has been difficult to attract industry partners to reforestation efforts. This is one of the main reasons the Forest Service has had to completely rebuild his four reforestation initiatives in 2021.

“We continue to struggle to establish an industry that can take in all these forest products—the live and dead trees that need to emerge to protect these acres,” said Smith. rice field.

He added that he is working closely with various forestry professionals and Northern Arizona University’s Institute for Ecosystem Restoration to envision new ways to use wood resources harvested from forest restoration.

“We’re opening every nut, every basket, everything we can to solve these problems,” Smith said.

Because current forest health issues are directly related to a century of fire-fighting philosophies enacted by northern Arizona’s settler communities, Andreani says the county is committed to managing indigenous practices such as controlled burns. He said he was also working to “revive and reinvigorate” the Adopted to mitigate local fire threats.

“Almost every tribe has adopted these strategies and has it as part of their history,” Andreani said. “And many of them have been suppressed over the years. rice field.”

Ultimately, the tone of Monday’s meeting took into account the fact that new fires at the peak pose a major threat to Flagstaff’s future.

Flagstaff Mayor Becky Daggett said, “We’re all in. We’re doing whatever it takes to protect our communities from these types of devastating wildfires and the associated flooding.”