Phoenix — S.With a major election 16 months away in one of the nation’s most battleground states, experts on both sides agree on one thing: how the 2024 Arizona Senate election will play out. I don’t know at all.
Incumbent Senator Kirsten Cinema of Iowa and Arizona could appear in the race. who left her party Progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Arizona), who will be out as an independent last year probably The Democratic candidate who announced his candidacy in January and the polarized conservative Kari Lake she lost the election to governor last year. All of this could end up in a three-way election in a state with 34% Republicans, 34% Independents, and 30% Democrats. According to Arizona data.
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The race has been stagnant in recent months. Cinema has not yet announced whether he will run for a second term.Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, the only Republican in the race announced his candidacy But Lake is widely considered an underdog if he faces him in the Republican primary, and he has not formally indicated he intends to run. Gallego is believed to be the only candidate actively campaigning. Multiple Monthly Town Halls statewide.
“It’s not really a big deal, but that’s because Lake essentially freezes the field. We thought she’d make an announcement a couple of weeks ago,” said the Phoenix-based player. said Mike Noble, senior researcher at Noble Predictive Insights, an independent polling group.
Lake is currently touring nationally after publishing her memoir. Fear not: We’re just getting startedOfficials expect it to be announced in the fall. The delay has left other Republican candidates at a loss as they wait for her decision. Jim Ramon, a former solar executive who lost last year’s Senate Republican primary, has expressed interest in running if no strong challenger to Mr. Lake appears. Republican candidate Blake Masters, who lost to Senator Mark Kelly (D, Arizona) last year, is also considering running, but people close to him don’t want him competing with Lake in the primary. they said.
Lake was one of the loudest voices of last year’s Republican candidates, pushing former President Donald Trump’s claim that he won the 2020 election. After Lake lost a narrow run for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs, he continued to challenge the results in state court, alleging widespread wrongdoing. The Arizona Supreme Court refused to hear most of Lake’s claims, but she sent some of her challenges to court.
If Lake decides to run for office, he suggests his message for the Senate campaign will be similar to his gubernatorial campaign.
“Yeah, it’s going to be like a general election. Eliminating election fraud is important to her,” said Lake’s senior adviser, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “There was a lot of other focus in the gubernatorial race. Journalists always ask questions about the election because that’s what they want to talk about.”
Over the past few months, Lake has been meeting with donors. She made numerous visits to Washington, D.C., and twice met with the National Republican Senate Committee. Many expect Lake to be a favorite for her nomination if she decides to run, but her narrow loss in 2022 puts some uncertainty about her chances of winning. remains.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R, Kentucky) recently suggested that Republicans are still evaluating the Arizona Senate race, suggesting that there is some speculation about whether the Republicans want to invest resources. expressed hesitation.in an interview with CNN He stressed in May that Republicans would likely wait to see what happens in the primary before deciding to participate. The NRSC recognizes that it will be difficult to beat Lake in the primary, and he does not want to get involved in late-cycle elections, according to people familiar with the matter.
Lake’s advisers said no one in the party establishment was trying to dissuade her from running for the Senate.
“No one, really. I think that’s a little surprising,” Lake’s adviser said. “I think the party is pretty united in the support of Ms. Cali. She appeals to the establishment – the MAGA faction.”
However, some experts believe otherwise. Noble believes cinema could pave the way for re-election, depending on who wins the Republican nomination in a three-way race.
“There’s no way for cinema with moderate Republicans, but there’s definitely an opportunity for far right wingers like Mr. Lake,” Noble said. “It’s still a tough road for her, but she still has a chance. But there are decent challengers, so her numbers aren’t quite there.”
Polling from Noble Predictive Insights Released in February A three-way race between Lake, Gallego and Cinema found Gallego leading by eight points. Gallego received 34% support, while 26% and 19% of respondents favored Lake and Sinema, respectively. Another 21% said they were undecided or unsure. Noble said these results weren’t necessarily surprising given that Gallego and Lake were more associated with the ideological side of the party than with the successful centrists throughout Arizona. said no.
“Democrats are united, Republicans are less united, and independents in the state who historically leaned to the right are now leaning to the left. That’s why you’re seeing this number,” Noble said. explained. “On that tripartite, the Democrats are like, oh, Reuben, they’re not leaking much. Basically the Republicans are less cohesive, they’re leaking a little more, and of course the independents are more left-leaning. And that’s why Gallego has the upper hand in these matchups.”
Since cinema’s triumph in 2018, Arizona has gone from being a solid red state to one of the nation’s most competitive battlegrounds. In 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Trump in the state and helped secure the White House. In December 2020, after Kelly was sworn in, Arizona had two Democratic senators for the first time since 1952. In 2022, Lake and three other Republicans who were running for major statewide office were defeated. It was the first time since 1950 that Democrats held all major statewide positions.
Republican strategist Daniel Scarpinato, who served as chief of staff to former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, said Republicans in the state have a lot of work to do if they want to regain some of those statewide offices. said.
“I think it used to be normal that if you won the primary, you won the general election. In many ways, I think the Republicans have failed to understand the fact that that’s no longer true,” Scarpinato said. said. “Part of it is messaging, but a lot of it is just general infrastructure. increase.”
Despite the success of the Democratic Party in recent years in Arizona, the environment is anything but blue.
“We didn’t elect Kari Lake. We didn’t elect Breakmasters. We elected Joe Biden, not Donald Trump, in the last presidential election. That’s why Arizona “It’s hard to define where we stand politically,” said former Democratic state legislator Cesar Chavez.
Chavez said despite the uncertainty over the entire campaign, he believes Cinema’s decision to quit the Democratic Party will only benefit states like Arizona, adding: “The relationship between Republicans and Democrats. “Having realists and moderates like Kirsten Cinema in the campaign is unacceptable.” provide options. ”
Arizona’s senior senator has billed himself as the state’s “independence mouthpiece,” but if he does decide to run for re-election, he will face some challenges garnering support from Democrats and independents. there’s a possibility that.
Gallego continues to criticize the senator, claiming she’s benefiting from lobbyists and business interests. At a city hall rally in Peoria, where Gallego was a keynote speaker last week, both Democratic registrants and independents expressed concerns about her first-term cinema.
“I worked in the Arizona heat door-to-door to win cinemas. I think she’s misrepresenting herself. They say they never did,” said Macy Evans, a registered independent living in Suncity West.
While some have expressed uncertainty about a statewide victory for progressive lawmakers in Arizona, prominent Arizona election attorney Roy Herrera said Gallego could be the candidate to break the ice. I believe that there is sex.
“I think what appeals to voters is credibility, and he understands that,” Herrera said. “He will be more open about answering questions and engaging with voters.
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Experts on both sides still argue that it is difficult to analyze such an unpredictable campaign in which incumbents may run as third-party candidates.
“Based on my experience in Arizona politics, it’s going to be an absolute dogfight,” said former cinema aide Joe Labombard. “This is just one of the few states in recent memory in which a statewide election determined by a vast number of voters within the state who reject both parties to anything wholly competitive.”
