Do tornadoes and other severe weather occur in Arizona during the summer monsoon? The short answer is yes. But tornado activity isn’t at the top of the list of frequent severe weather events in Arizona. The most severe weather events by frequency are strong convective winds, then local floods, then hail events, and finally tornadoes.

Arizona Weather Forecaster starts with the least likely severe weather in Arizona. tornado.according to NOAA Research Report Hazardous Weather Climatology in Arizonaby Craig Shoemaker and Jeffrey Davis, the Arizona average is about four A tornado once a year. Some years have more events, some years less. This report includes data for his 54 years in Arizona. Although there is at least one tornado event throughout the year, the months with the most tornado events are: in May finished October, This includes the summer monsoon period. Additionally, the data show that all tornadoes were rated from F0 to the highest F3 on the old fajita scale. The scale range is F0 to F5. Most tornado events in Arizona were 80 F0 (less than 113 mph), 60 F1 (73-112 mph), and about 10 F2 (113-157 mph). The study concluded that most tornadoes in Arizona are weak compared to the more mature tornado alley types in the Midwest. Note that a revised and extended fajita scale is now used.

Additionally, the state is not evenly affected by tornado events. According to the image below from the NOAA report, Maricopa County Most events ever held 57 First tornado in 54 years. the second is Pinal County, and twenty five event. This is because Mogollon Rim is located northeast of these counties. Thunderstorms can migrate south from the highlands and enter hotter, drier air masses, which intensifies the thunderstorms and increases the likelihood of severe weather. Other notable counties include 20 in Coconino, 17 in Pima and 12 in Cochise. Four counties had zero tornado records. Another caveat to consider is that these are only confirmed tornadoes. Numerous weaker tornadoes occur but are not observed or recorded due to the remote location of the touchdown or the lack of noticeable damage.

NOAA Tornado Images by Countyphoto courtesyNOAA

Arizona weather forecasters move on severe hail event. According to the NOAA report, this is any hail phenomenon. 0.75 inch or more. Again, this is a rare occurrence in Arizona, especially in Southern Arizona. Because the cloud base is much higher, the air is drier and the falling hailstones melt. Hail usually does not land on the ground large enough to be considered serious. The higher up or base of the Mogollon Rim in Maricopa and Pinal counties, the more likely the event will occur. moreover, July To September This is the month when you are most likely to encounter severe hail events. 70% occurred in the late afternoon hours during 2pm and 6pm. The report states, “The largest hailstone reported in the state was 4.50 inches, which is the size of a softball. This happened September 28, 1995 in Mayer, Yavapai County.” But like tornadoes, hail can strike remote areas and melt away before it can be observed and recorded.

One of the more prominent problems is monsoon flooding. Some are localized, while others combine multiple sources to turn dry laundry into a raging river in minutes. NOAA Considers flash flood Caused by very heavy rains in streams, rivers, or flood-prone areas. Lasts 6 hours or less. This can also cause potential harm to life and property. This flash flood event is statistically much more likely than a tornado or severe hail in Arizona. According to NOAA’s report, flash floods are the second most deadly heat in Arizona after high temperatures. The months with the most flash floods are: July and September and maybe the time in between 4pm and 7pm. Additionally, Arizona ranked 10th in the nation for flood-related deaths from 1959 to 1999. Therefore, motorists, hikers, campers, and anyone traveling near streams or riverbeds should be aware of this flash flood potential. Know the forecast for your area and be prepared to limit or cancel activities. Also, do not drive on flooded roads. This is a potential hazard and could kill you or the paramedics who were rescuing you from the vehicle.

Arizona weather forecasters focus on convective gusts, the most frequent severe weather phenomenon in Arizona. According to the NOAA report, violent wind An event is an event that: 58 mph Higher winds will cause severe damage.The average for Arizona is 29 events per year. The most likely month is July To September and meanwhile 3 pm and 9 pm. But according to the image below, southern Arizona has the most intense convective events. This is caused by entrainment of dry air associated with the continental tropical air masses in the region. This very hot, dry air intensifies the cold air that descends from the upper layers of the storm, increasing its speed as it reaches the surface. A circular outflow boundary often forms that extends many miles from the storm.it is common to have 50-75 mph This setting creates convective thunderstorm winds. In general, the duration of such high winds is short, usually from a few minutes to less than 30 minutes. However, serious damage to property may occur.

Possible convective winds in Arizonaphoto courtesyNOAA

Rarely, micro burst It can occur in a very small geographical area with very strong winds. 85 mph To Over 160 mph A focused burst can cause devastating damage. Microbursts can be dry or wet. It can topple utility poles, damage roofs and houses, and overturn aircraft with loose ropes. Very strong convective winds do not necessarily have to be microbursts. According to NOAA’s report, the strongest winds were 175 mph The event occurred at 11:15 am on September 6, 1996, over Spring Valley, Yavapai County.

Yes, once a monsoon thunderstorm sets in, it does not always or usually cause severe weather, but sometimes severe weather can occur. Tornadoes are not the most common occurrence, but they do occur in Arizona as well. Although hail is more common in frequency, it usually does not have a significant magnitude for most events. However, it is a more common occurrence, especially at high altitudes. Severe flooding and convective disasters are more common in southern Arizona. So pay attention to the weather before doing outdoor activities or driving, and be careful when you go out. You don’t want to be part of the statistics.