Arizona weather forecasters said monsoon thunderstorms in Arizona will continue into the weekend with increased activity in the Mogollon Rim and the southern part of the state. Due to certain weather dynamics, severe weather can occur during some of these thunderstorms. In addition, this thunderstorm activity can cause rain to linger overnight in Phoenix.

for Saturday, July 22, 2023, Mogollon Rim, Flagstaff, Sedona, Prescott, Payson, Show Low, Grove, Alpine, and other areas on the rim are expected to continue to experience isolated to minor thunderstorms. This activity must occur primarily between 1:00 and 8:00 pm and is subject to adverse weather conditions, especially winds in excess of 60 mph and light hail. The model shows that the upper strata are relocated to the Nevada-Arizona border, placing upper strata divergences and differences throughout the state, especially in the Southeast. Additionally, the model shows an isolated serious potential with a CAPE of 1,500+, a LI of -5, and a TT of 55. Vertical speeds of 500mb and 700mb are also high in the rim area.

In addition, an isolated and potentially severe outbreak is also indicated in the southern part of the state, but occurred in the late afternoon and early evening. This pattern has continued for the past 24 hours. This convection could sweep through central Pima County, the Tucson area, Santa Cruz County, Pinal County, and Cochise County. Thunderstorms are likely to intensify, with winds of 90 mph or more, small hail and rain. Rainfall is generally less than half an inch, but can exceed 1 inch in isolated areas. This can result in localized flooding and dangerous driving situations. Please be safe when traveling in these conditions.

for Sunday, July 23, 2023Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue in the Mogollon Rim region and southern Arizona. Severe weather remains possible in these areas. Additionally, rain is expected in the Phoenix metropolitan area with a lingering thunderstorm off the rim through Sunday evening. Some models show this possibility, but don’t expect more than 0.15 inches, more likely north and east of the city.