Purple Nevada has only six electoral votes, but could deal a “huge blow” to Vice President Kamala Harris and clear the way for former President Donald Trump to win, experts say Daily Caller News told the foundation.
Nevada has consistently voted blue since 2008, but the battle between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is heating up in the battleground state, which could be a blow to Harris' campaign. Although Nevada's electoral weight is small compared to other battleground states, the silver state's unique economy and demographics could be a deciding factor in which candidate takes the White House, experts say. family members told DCNF. (Related: Experts say key battleground states are once again 'critical' to President Trump's chances of taking back the White House)
“There are very few paths to victory that don't involve Nevada,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told DCNF.
“It would be a huge blow to her if we took away those electoral votes,” McLaughlin told DCNF.
Democratic presidential candidate (and future U.S. vice president) Kamala speaks at the “National Forum on Wages and Workers: Creating an Economy That Works for All” held at the Enclave in Las Vegas, Nevada, April 27, 2019. -Senator Harris (Democratic Party, California). (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
“One of the things that's particularly interesting is that this is the only state that President Trump lost twice,” Jeremy Hughes, a Nevada-based Republican strategist, told DCNF. “Now he has a chance to change this cycle.”
Polls between Trump and Harris show a close race, with the Republican candidate trailing the vice president by just 1.4 percentage points. According to to the average of RealClearPolling. Latest Hill/Emerson public opinion poll According to Recent Great American Figures, Harris has a narrow one-point lead over Trump, but the two are tied at 48%. public opinion poll.
The swing state has been blue for almost two decades, but it's a close call. In Nevada, former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden defeated Trump by a margin of 2.4 percentage points. 2016 and 2020, each. (Related article: Harris' honeymoon ends in failure as President Trump leads in Sunbelt battleground)
“Republicans were able to win the governor's race, and with the exception of Brian Kemp, that was probably the bright spot for Republicans on election night.” [in 2022]” Hughes told DCNF. “So we've moved a little bit to the right. Voter registration in the state has also changed significantly. In fact, I think more Republicans will vote than Democrats in this election.”
Nevada currently has two Democratic senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Governor Joe Lombardo. Fifteen of the state's 17 counties voted Republican. last two Presidential election.
More than 15% of Nevada's economy derivative Mr. Trump's tip tax exemption proposal is one of several proposals to accommodate Nevada's unique economy, and Ms. Harris echoed this idea on the campaign trail. (Related: 'Less atmosphere, more policy': Here's why Harris polls worse than past Democratic candidates)
“Nevadaans are focused on issues close to home: rising prices, stagnant wages, and affordable housing,” Michael McDonald, chairman of the Nevada Republican Party and senior adviser to President Trump, told DCNF. . “If we ask ourselves if we are better off than we were four years ago, for most people the answer is no. The cost of living has risen, gas prices remain high, and inflation is costing us our hard-earned money. However, the value of wages continues to decline.
“Trump has committed to ensuring Americans keep more of their hard-earned money, including exempting taxes on tips, exempting taxes on Social Security, and exempting taxes on overtime,” McDonald told DCNF. “The president's emphasis resonates with voters across the state.” “As Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly looking to President Trump's economic policies for solutions to move forward, not just get by.”
Nevada's economy relies heavily on tourism and the hospitality industry, so the pandemic shutdowns paralyzed the workforce. As a result, Nevada currently has the highest unemployment rate of any state in the United States at 5.5%. According to to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“When the country gets a cold, Nevada gets the flu,” Hughes told DCNF. “Everything is economic. Everything about the economy is much worse in Nevada, and people are going to remember what the economy was like when President Trump was in office.”
“If we're going to lose Nevada, it's because we have a lot of problems in the service industry, and we have a lot of problems with Latinos in general,” Chand told DCNF.
Nevada has a large Hispanic population. almost 20% of the state's households speak Spanish. Latinos have historically been blue voters, but Mr. Trump made significant gains, beating Ms. Harris among this demographic by just 3 percentage points. According to In a recent Nobel Predictive Insights poll. (Related: Trump partners with Harris in key battleground states on issue where Democrats have spent years bashing Trump)
John McLaughlin, a pollster for the Trump campaign and CEO of McLaughlin & Associates, said, “The reason why Kamala Harris is doing a Univision town hall in Las Vegas is precisely because of Latin America.'' That's because he has very good support with voters,” he told DCNF. “Mr. Harris is in trouble in Nevada.”
Experts like Chand and McLaughlin say Trump's support among Hispanics is likely due to their dissatisfaction with the current Biden-Harris administration. He emphasizes that.
“I think it's very important to be clear about this,” Chand said. “It's not so much that Republicans have gained or that Trump has gained, but rather that Democrats have lost. Part of that is Democratic defection.” (Related: Democrats launch ad campaign targeting Latinos in battleground states)
“When you talk about Hispanic voters, you're talking about the American people,” McLaughlin told DCNF. “Hispanic voters are rallying behind President Trump because, like all Americans, they are hurt by inflation. It’s damaging to them.”
Given the Nevada polls and the broader political landscape, strategists like Hughes and McLaughlin are optimistic about Trump's chances.
“There is strong momentum on the ground to elect new leadership in Washington,” McDonald told DCNF. “Nevadaans want a president who prioritizes fiscal security and restores a thriving economy, and President Trump is doing just that.”
“I like President Trump better than Kamala Harris when it comes to Nevada,” Hughes told DCNF.
Harris and her campaign did not respond to requests for comment.
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