Polls in battleground states and those states state Not considered a battlefield; suggest Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of an electoral landslide. In nearly every battleground state between 2016 and 2020, Mr. Trump is ahead of where he was then.
Consider my home state of New York, where Trump is reportedly located. 13 points behind Harris. President Trump lost New York 2016 and by 2020 23 points. Trump currently has a 10-point advantage in New York, which is better than he had in the past two elections. That’s a big shake. If Trump is at least 10 points ahead in New York, which is not considered a battleground state, it’s natural to think that Trump is probably a few points ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Probably. (Related: CNN’s Harry Enten says presidential election is “closer than we’ve ever seen it” and warns there is a “margin of error” that could upset the outcome)
recent polls show thatcompared to the same period in 2016 and 2020, Trump Voting in progress He averages a 13-point advantage over Penn State and 11 points over Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Only battleground state with President Trump poor performance North Carolina due to local issues with Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.
in pennsylvania and georgiaTrump only needs a one-point swing to win the election. All the data shows Trump is in a better position now than he was at the same time in 2016 and 2020. Trump is polling better than ever with nearly every demographic, including black voters, women, Hispanics and men.
Pew Research Center analyzed It investigated common polling errors and found that most pre-election polls in 2020 “exaggerated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump.”
How can polls be so wrong about Trump’s strength and popularity? Two factors are often suggested. First, some polling organizations use samples that are biased toward Democratic candidates. Second, Trump supporters unlikely Shame from people with “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and “never Trumpers” keeps them from speaking up about their preferences.
Objective analysis of polling data suggests Trump wins the election by flipping Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and possibly Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. .
Parenthetically, if the Harris campaign is asking for a second debate, it means they know they’re in trouble. Top candidates never seek new arguments.
Bruce Blakeman is the Nassau County Executive for Nassau County, New York.
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