California is growing again, and that news comes as relief, vindication, or outrage. where you are standing Regarding Golden State. Or, perhaps more appropriately, where you live.

Born in the modern era amidst a frenzy of money and speculation, the state grew in population each time it dated back to the gold rush era. Rapid, constant growth was not only the natural order of things, but also an affirmation. California’s lifestyle, the state’s economy, political leadership, weather, and perhaps most of all, beckon to this most fertile of landscapes.

Then came the pandemic, the immigration crackdown, and the remote work revolution. California’s population has declined for the first time in recorded history. Relatively speaking, it’s not a ton. But it was enough to prompt discussion about “escape,” enough to inflame the trash talkers and give those intent on writing the state’s obituary a chance to sharpen their quills and tongues.

Additionally, as a result, California lost a House seat for the first time in its history. To make matters worse, two of the state’s biggest rivals, Florida and Texas, have expanded their footprints in the Capitol.

It was a blow to the ego, a humiliation, and a political setback.

Then last month, news broke that California is once again steadily growing.

An increase of 232,570 residents from July 2023 to July 2024 corresponds to a population increase of 0.6%. In a state that is home to 39.43 million souls, there is some variation, but no more than a rounding error. There were many things to be certain about and things to note about the latest numbers. California still lost more residents to other states than it gained, and its growth rate was lower than the nation as a whole, especially when compared to fast-growing Sunbelt states.

If the prediction is correctCalifornia is likely to lose its House seat again after the 2030 census, and conservative-leaning archrivals Florida and Texas have gained even more political influence.

But at least the demographics are on the positive side of the ledger, which is satisfying and cause for glee, unless you think the whole emigration thing was overblown to begin with — which it was.

“I don’t think you can measure the health of a place” by a small increase or decrease in population, said Jim Newton, a former Times editor who now writes history and biography. In fact, he suggested, some Californians might find a little more elbow room comforting. Certainly, the commuters gritting their teeth along Highway 101 through Silicon Valley or agonizingly running along the 405 Freeway in Los Angeles don’t complain that the state’s population is too small. Probably.

“A lot of people were projecting what they wanted into numbers,” Newton said of the state’s short-term population decline. “Especially the right side.”

There’s a long tradition of touting California’s decline — a meme before there were memes. It’s called envy, it’s called sizeism. Tell them they hate us because they’re not us.

“California is bigger, so there’s more to hate,” said Jason Sexton, a cultural historian at the University of California, Los Angeles.

National publications are not influenced by the times or trends, Public recurring account Even as they sensed the end of the nation, their jubilation was mostly hidden beneath the surface. A classic of the genre appeared in the early 1990s, with Time magazine calling it “California. A dream in peril,” metaphorically describing The Sun Setting in a Blood-Red Sea.

The problem seems to be that the population is growing too fast. Where does the state put those people?

It wasn’t a new concern.

“The state is always off balance, perilously stretched, improvising, trying to navigate the torrents of periodic tidal waves of immigration,” said historian Carey McWilliams, California’s greatest historian. is writing. His observations were published in 1949. At the time, California had 10.3 million residents, only about a quarter of its current population, and was the third largest state after New York and Pennsylvania.

As California was about to overtake New York as the most populous state by a wide margin in 1962, Governor Pat Brown proclaimed a four-day celebration.

Yes, it was unusual when California stopped its relentless growth and saw its population decline even further.

This retrenchment quickly became evidence and a cudgel for the state’s proud detractors. As with much of the rest of this deeply divided country, long-standing resentment against California has taken on a deeply partisan tone. Population decline was thus bandied about in red America as irrefutable evidence of social disintegration in blue states, moral decay, and failure of leftist political leadership.

With that in mind, can recent population growth be seen as a sudden validation of the California Way and a renewal of its glorious promise?

no.

Old hostilities die hard. Especially when there is a political agenda involved. What’s more, California’s problems — knee-breaking housing costs and gasket-blowing traffic jams, to name just two — didn’t go away overnight. Even the majority of people living here have a dim view of the current situation. A poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California ahead of the November election found that 60% of those surveyed believed the state was heading in the wrong direction.

And even tougher challenges lie ahead.

In 1980, the median age of California residents was under 30, and people over 65 made up only 10% of the population. Forty years later, the median age was just over 38 years old, and older people made up 16% of the population. By 2040, the median age is projected to rise to 43 years or older, and older adults will account for more than 22% of California residents.

State Librarian Greg Lucas suggested that time would be better spent focusing on California’s demographics rather than dwelling on raw numbers. “Are we ready?” he asked about the major changes and stressors that a gray wave would bring, particularly rising health costs and reduced population mobility. “Are we”—heaven forbid—“going to be Florida?”

For now, we can hope that the supposed end of the California spill (without quoting) will at least temporarily halt the exaggerated takeaways and weary death notices.

Nations always seem to be teetering on the precipice or facing one crisis after another, whether natural or man-made. But California and its temptations endure through a combination of tenacity, resilience, love and pride. Sexton, a historian at UCLA, summed up the local spirit, pointed out some of the state’s myriad problems, and concluded, “I’m not going anywhere.”

“Why?” he asked.