The battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives could remain unresolved Tuesday night as California votes counted in several races that could determine whether Democrats or Republicans win the majority. There is sex.
Voters in the Golden State held unusual influence in this year’s national battle, with suburban Orange County, the agricultural Central Valley and desert communities around Palm Springs and Lancaster playing a major role in shaping the next Congress.
“The race for control of the U.S. House of Representatives remains the closest it’s ever been,” said Erin Covey, House of Representatives editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“There are some races in West Coast states that take longer to count, and it’s likely we won’t know which party is in control on election night.”
Republicans cling to a razor-thin four-seat majority in the House and hold on to 15 seats that are seen as a toss-up nationally.
No state has as many floating seats as California, with six seats considered highly competitive. Five are Republican representatives, and four are in districts won by President Biden in 2020.
Some highly competitive races can take days or even weeks before results are known. Mail-in ballots in California can be counted for up to a week after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked by Tuesday.
For Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff, the favorite to win Tuesday’s California Senate race, the state’s role in this year’s House race was a source of pride.
“The state of California will decide for itself whether we are a majority or a minority,” Schiff said. “We’re not going to take back the House unless we win some of these races. If we win all these races, there’s very little chance we’ll be able to take back the House. California will decide. That’s very exciting. Yo.”
The high stakes of the congressional battles have brought a rare level of attention to reliably blue states.
In October, top House leaders from both parties traveled to Southern California on the same day to campaign. Two hours and 90 miles away in Palmdale, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appeared with Republican incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert, and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D.N.Y.) opposed Democrat George White. I got into an argument with Said.
Their visit came a day after former President Trump held a rally in the Coachella Valley with Calvert and weeks before former President Clinton stumbled with Democratic House candidates in Orange County.
California’s Republican House incumbents focused on inflation, crime and U.S.-Mexico border security, painting their opponents as out-of-control radicals who have driven up taxes and gas prices. Republicans also sought to link President Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, both unpopular Democrats, to challengers.
Many of the Democratic challengers sought to paint Republicans as ultra-conservatives who are selfish and out of step with their constituencies. Many of the ads focused on abortion, which California Republicans argued could erode access to abortions nationwide with support from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
California’s six most competitive races have received nearly $150 million from outside spenders, including $105 million from Republican and Democratic-linked groups across the country. Contains more than a dollar.
Two political newcomers also spent heavily.
A super PAC backed by crypto companies and investors has spent nearly $7 million supporting Republican Reps. Michelle Steele, Mike Garcia, David Valadao and Young Kim, more than any other industry group. spent. A super PAC funded by Elon Musk also spent more than $4 million on campaign efforts, digital ads, and text messages to help Calvert, Steele, and Valadao turn out voters.
The largest independent spender supporting Democrats was the League of Conservation Voters, a liberal environmental advocacy group, which spent more than $5 million in five races.
Here are the closest House races you can watch across California.
CA-13: Rep. John Duarte vs. Adam Gray
Two years ago, Republican Rep. John Duarte won this agricultural district by just 564 votes, the second-closest margin in the nation. The campaign was not called until December 2, almost a month after the election.
Democrats have a significant advantage in voter registration in this district, but the party’s turnout in 2022 was low. They hope high turnout in a presidential year will determine their fate in the Central Valley, where Mr. Duarte will once again face Democrat Adam Gray. , a former state representative from Modesto.
CA-22: Rep. David Valadao vs. Rudy Salas
Once a safe ruby red neighborhood, this part of the San Joaquin Valley is now decidedly purple.
Voters in the district, which includes parts of Bakersfield and parts of Kern, Tulare and Kings counties, favored Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by 13 points in 2020, and Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao He is now one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents.
His opponent, Democrat Rudy Salas, is a former state representative who, if he wins, would be the first Latino from the Central Valley to be elected to Congress.
CA-27: Congressman Mike Garcia vs. George Whiteside
The 27th Congressional District covers a large area of the Antelope Valley and has deep ties to the military and aerospace industries. Democrats register to vote 10 points more than Republicans.
The district has been in a political tug-of-war since the 2018 Blue Wave, when Democrats took back the House and millennial Democrat Katie Hill unseated the district’s Republican incumbent. He resigned less than a year later in the wake of a sex scandal.
Republican Rep. Mike Garcia won the seat in a subsequent special election and has won two more times since then, including by a margin of 333 votes in 2020. This year, Garcia is running against Democrat George Whiteside, a former NASA administration and former CEO of Virgin Galactic. .
CA-41: Rep. Ken Calvert vs. Will Rollins
Two years ago, Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona), the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, replaced former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D-Corona) with little support from Democrats. He held off a surprisingly close challenge from. The race was close and Rollins attended New Member Orientation in Washington, but a late return to California showed Calvert the victory.
After California’s redistricting process ensured red areas in the Calvert District, including Temecula and Murrieta, were swapped for more liberal areas in the Coachella Valley, including Palm Springs, which has the highest concentration of LGBTQ+ voters in the nation. , the region’s competitiveness has further increased.
Mr. Rollins, who is gay, is seeking to unseat Mr. Calvert, who has served in Congress since 1993, for the second time, making him one of the best-funded challengers in the country.
CA-45: Rep. Michelle Steele vs. Derek Tran
Steele, a two-term incumbent and leading fundraiser, faces a challenge from Democrat Derek Tran in what has become one of the most explosive and expensive races of 2024.
The 45th Congressional District, where Little Saigon is located, has the largest Vietnamese population outside of Vietnam, but until now there has been no Vietnamese American representation in Washington. Tran, who was born in the United States to Vietnamese refugees, hopes to buck that trend.
Both candidates have fought hard for the elderly Vietnamese population, which has traditionally supported Republicans.
Accusations of “red-slaying” were flying after both sides tried to link the other to communist China.
CA-47: Scott Bo vs. Dave Ming
There is no incumbent candidate in the 47th Congressional District in coastal Orange County, as Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) ran unsuccessfully for the Senate instead of seeking re-election to the House.
To take back the House majority, Democrats will need to hold open seats or gain ground elsewhere. Republicans see this race as their best chance to win new seats in California.
Democratic state Sen. Dave Minn is running against former Orange County Republican Party Chairman Scott Baugh in a race Cook describes as a “lean” Democrat. Mr. Baugh narrowly lost to Mr. Porter two years ago in a painful and expensive campaign.