In California, publicly collected data is riddled with incomplete and misleading data, and experts say it's allowing policymakers and politicians to set the state on its feet.

California Governor Gavin Newsom and Oakland Mayor Shen Tao have touted significant crime declines in recent months, but it has since emerged that the city of Oakland released misleading nonviolent crime data by comparing incomplete numbers for 2024 with complete numbers from previous years, giving policymakers and the public the false impression that crime was improving. Experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation say Oakland's crime statistics are indicative of a larger problem statewide, and that the state has routinely used misleading and incomplete data to hide the magnitude of serious issues that ultimately harm the public, including homelessness, the COVID-19 pandemic and crime.

“California is completely determined by ideology,” Christopher Culton, a housing and homelessness researcher at the Independent Institute, told DCNF. “It's shocking to me how ingrained this culture is. The lack of accurate data gives policymakers an advantage.” [Data] They gaslight people into thinking crime is better than it actually is, because it might tarnish their reputation.”

In Oakland, nonviolent crimes and property crimes can take up to six weeks to show up in crime data. according to According to the San Francisco Chronicle, crime numbers for 2024 were underreported in the weekly report, and incomplete 2024 figures were compared to complete figures from the previous year, giving the false impression that crime had decreased.

Nearly half of all crimes in San Francisco go unreported. according to Violent crime in California has skyrocketed in recent years, increasing 26.4% from 2014 to 2022, according to a September 2023 poll by local political research group GrowSF. according to To the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).

“The data gets more accurate the more people report,” Culton said. “The reason victims stop reporting is because the laws aren't being enforced. People just stop reporting.”

Proposition 47, which reduces penalties for drug possession and theft under $950 from felonies to misdemeanors, has been in effect in California since 2014. Proposition 47 has been hotly debated in California politics, with critics arguing that the law is causing a wave of retail crime, with shoplifting rates increasing by 29% from 2019 to 2022. according to To PPIC.

A spokesperson for Governor Newsom's office stood by the state's data, telling the DCNF that it shows declines in violent and nonviolent crime in California cities and across the state, as well as improvements in homicide, larceny, arson, property crimes and retail theft. The spokesperson pointed to the Newsom Administration's efforts to increase collaboration with local police across the state, including success in Oakland, San Francisco and Bakersfield.

In addition to crime data, California's health care system also lacks behavioral and mental health information.

In its analysis, the California Department of Health Services (DHCS) said data on demand and supply of services from the state's behavioral health infrastructure is “limited and of varying quality,” citing an example in which DHCS doesn't know how many days or weeks people were left under observation without treatment while awaiting placement elsewhere in emergency departments. according to The 2022 DHCS report was submitted to the state auditor in 2020. report He said the county-based mental health system has “piecemeal and incomplete” data reporting and that “the state doesn't know the extent to which billions of dollars have helped individuals with mental illness.”

From 2019 to 2021, fentanyl overdose deaths in the state increased by 121%. according to California has a shortage of 4,767 psychiatric beds for people with mental illness, according to state records. according to According to a 2021 RAND Corporation study.

California announced in May that it would allocate $6.8 billion to “counties, cities, tribal entities, nonprofits, and for-profit organizations” to bolster the state's mental and behavioral health system, citing the RAND study and DCHS evaluation as the catalyst for the new funding. according to From the press release in May.

But Culton said many third parties struggle to record important data, and counties, nonprofits and cities that receive large grants from California's homelessness programs often don't properly manage data related to their missions. California has spent more than $30 billion on homelessness and housing issues since Newsom took office in 2019.

“They weren't tracking results. California was acting as a banking government, and these nonprofits weren't tracking results,” Culton said. “This is just one example of the total lack of accountability. Who's to say how effectively the money is being spent?”

Homelessness continues to plague California, which accounts for 28% of the homeless population in the United States. according to The state's homeless population is more than 78,000 more than the next highest, New York, according to a 2023 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development report.

The homeless population grew by 10,000 people from 2021 to 2022. Culton said without proper data, it's hard to verify whether counties, cities, nonprofits and other entities that receive funding are using the money directly to address homelessness.

California doesn't know how effective three of its $24 billion homeless and housing programs over the past five years have been because of a lack of outcome data from organizations involved in the projects. according to In an April financial audit, the auditors said the programs in question did not have “sufficient outcomes data to evaluate their cost-effectiveness” and there was “no assurance that these programs are the best use of state funds.”

Edward Ring, director of water and energy policy at the California Policy Center, told DCNF that developers are claiming they've succeeded in combating homelessness by simply putting a roof over people's heads without any data on the behavior of people living in new developments.

“They say, 'We need metrics to determine whether these projects are successful,' and one of those metrics is [they] “All they do is monitor whether people stay in their new apartments, and they don't monitor their behavior at all because it creates an incentive for people to stay in their apartments,” Ring told DCNF. “This is a scam that's making all kinds of people incredibly rich.”

California also used misleading data to support lockdown measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Mark Joffe, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute.

Joffe told DCNF that the data on which the state's COVID-19 lockdown was based lacked demographic details on mortality rates. COVID-19 mortality rates are highly dependent on age, with 81% of COVID-19 deaths in 2020 occurring in people 65 and older. according to To the CDC.

“In the early days of COVID, there was a lot of interest in demographic information about who was dying, but the county didn't provide that information or a very broad range of data, so it was hard to know what your risk was,” Joffe said. “They were hiding data to support the California lockdown story.” [people] If they had understood that the risk of death for people under 30 or 40 years old is very low, they might have acted differently.”

During the COVID-19 pandemic, California has been one of the most aggressive states when it comes to imposing lockdowns, issuing stay-at-home orders to 85% of the state's residents in December 2020. according to Many Californians left the state during the lockdown, causing a huge drop in tax revenue and costing the state a combined $47 billion in lost revenue in 2020 and 2021, according to the BBC. according to To NBC.

The state is expected to post a $73 billion budget deficit in fiscal year 2024 and is projected to lose $24 billion in tax revenue due to increased out-of-state migration. plan Making deep cuts to close the revenue gap. (Related article: California faces a growing budget deficit crisis. Can it be solved?)

Joffe said California's COVID-19 demographic data isn't the only thing it has been withholding: the state has also been notoriously slow to report financial information about its spending to the federal government.

“California is the last state to report its financial statements every year. We only recently received our 2022 financial statements, in March 2024, and we have no idea when our 2023 financial statements will be,” Joffe said. “It's been six years since we've had financial statements released beyond the federally mandated nine months. California is the last state to report its financial statements.”

The financial disclosures are required to maintain California's credit rating, which determines how easily the state can borrow money. California's most recent report is for 2022. according to To CalMatters: Continued delays could jeopardize the state's credit rating. according to Until the 2022 state audit.

“If the data is incomplete and therefore misleading, it may be worth holding back the data until it is complete,” Joffe said.

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