Ahoy!this is Ben Oreskes Resupply while Laurel Rosenhall is on special duty. I ran through the world of California politics to get here. California politics is always exciting, but it’s a really tough world these days. I’m usually based in Los Angeles covering state and national affairs, but I’ve been in Washington for the past few weeks, and I’m writing to you.

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Senator Diane Feinstein’s health has been the subject of many conspiracies in recent weeks, and our latest University of California, Berkeley Government Research Institute/ A Los Angeles Times poll contains a lot of insight into voters’ views on the subject. But for a moment, let’s focus on Feinstein’s race to succeed him and the issues that are causing some Democrats to have indigestion.

Will two Democrats run away from the jungle primary and face each other in the runoff, or will the Republicans consolidate their support and win out?

The poll, the first to include Republicans, suggests the latter possibility. Among voters likely to attend the primary, Los Angeles attorney Eric Early received support from 18% of those polled. Rep. Katie Porter trails with 17%, followed by Rep. Adam B. Schiff with 14% and Rep. Barbara Lee with 9%. About four in 10 of his likely voters are either undecided or planning to vote for someone else.

The 2016 and 2018 Senate elections pitted two Democrats against each other in the general election, but “there’s certainly a chance it could be Democrats versus Republicans. Whoever the Democrats are, they support the outcome.” If so, the election is almost over,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the National Research Institute of Government Poll and a longtime California pollster.

Remember, Democrats have a huge advantage in voter registration in the state, and if Mr. Early or any Republican wins the primary, they are likely to be slaughtered in the general election. Since 2006, no Republican candidate has won a statewide election in California.

“I can absolutely assure you that California will never be represented by extremist anti-abortion Trump supporters, even in the early stages of the campaign,” said a California-based Democratic political consultant who previously said Anna Burr, who worked for Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and Vermont Senator. Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign.

“I bet my career on it.”

Still, the prospect of a Republican candidate making it through the primary will give three leading Democrats some trepidation.

Feinstein’s approval rating is low

A source close to Feinstein recently told me that the longtime senator has little time or interest in polling. For years, there have been growing calls for him not to run again for the Democratic Party of California, or to withdraw. But she persevered and she won again in 2018 and still stands firm in her determination to complete her term.

Earlier this month, the former San Francisco mayor returned to work after taking several months off to recover from shingles. She also had encephalitis, a complication of herpes zoster and swelling of the brain that can cause memory loss.

Despite her visibly declining condition, one need only look back at Feinstein’s past to understand her fortitude in the present. Interviewing her biographer Jerry Roberts, Times political columnist Mark Z. Balabac explained: But at the same time, she’s stubbornly believing in herself and no one tells her what she can and can’t do. ”

So Feinstein’s skyrocketing popularity among voters of all stripes probably doesn’t matter to her. But it may be of interest to you. Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said her illness meant she was no longer fit to serve, according to the survey. The sentiment spans an ideological spectrum that includes two out of three Democratic voters. Only 20% of voters voted against.

Her image with voters has also deteriorated. Feinstein’s likeability has dropped nearly 20 points since he was elected to a fifth term in 2018, with only 29% of people now having a positive view of him. ing.

Much of her decline in popularity has occurred in the past three months, with her favorability ratings dropping eight percentage points since voters were last surveyed in February. Just over half of voters, 52%, currently have a negative view of Feinstein, and 19% have no opinion. The DPJ, in particular, is taking a more passive stance.

Clinton’s California Cool

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton took our politics seriously this week. Clinton supports Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounarakis’s candidacy to replace Gavin Newsom in 2026. While that may seem a long way off now, Clinton’s early entry into the race and the endorsement of a big name like Clinton seemed like an effort to intimidate. appear. competition.

There are speculations and some reportst ati. General Rob Bonta is considering running.Former Secretary of State Betty Yee said: running. So Kunarakis may hope his wealth and high-profile connections will deter others from jumping into the race.

Clinton also addressed Feinstein’s return to the Senate this week. inform Time magazine argued that she should not resign. He said that if Feinstein were to resign, Republicans would never allow a Democrat to replace her, so it would be essential for him to stay in office and vote to approve President Biden’s attorney general nomination. said.

“Let me say something about my friend and longtime colleague Diane Feinstein,” she continued. “First of all, she endured bouts of shingles and encephalitis and was in great pain. That was the voters’ decision to vote for her, and she was a remarkable and highly effective leader.”

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