Newport Beach made national headlines this summer after a New Zealand tourist was killed in a violent robbery at Fashion Island, one of Orange County’s most exclusive shopping malls.

Four months ago, Irvine police issued a warning on social media after 34 residential burglaries were reported in about the same number of days. Residents accustomed to the quiet, safe environment of master-planned suburban communities were perplexed.

“What happened to Irvin?” A man was questioned at a police station.

Coastal Orange County cities are typically far from the safety hazards of Los Angeles and other metropolitan centers, but they will be crucial in determining which party controls the House after the November election. In the election, debate over crime has become an important issue. .

Republican Scott Baugh and state Sen. Dave Minn (D-Irvine) are vying for the seat representing the 47th Congressional District, which includes Irvine, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach and Huntington Beach. Congresswoman Katie Porter, who represents the district, decided not to seek re-election and instead launched an unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate.

Republicans have used crime as a potential way to appeal to voters and flip popular seats. The Republican argument that Democrats are soft on crime has historically worked in their favor. Years of polling have shown that voters view Republicans as tougher on judicial issues.

“People who live in cities are more tolerant of the disorder that exists in an urban environment. It’s not just crime, it’s litter on the ground, cars parked on the sidewalk, and a lot of things you don’t see in the suburbs.” Yes,” Matt said. Mr. Lesenier is an assistant professor of political science at California State University, Long Beach. “The people who are most concerned about crime, at least in this cycle, tend to be people who would normally stay away from crime.”

Less than a month after her death on Fashion Island, Beau slammed Min on social media site X:[supporting] It has reduced penalties for theft, allowed snatching and snatching to flourish in shopping malls, and even led to the murder of an innocent grandmother this month. ”

According to a video posted on Min’s campaign website, Min accused Bo of lying about his background and responded by sending a suspension letter to his opponent’s Huntington Beach home. .

Records show political action committees spent more than $7.5 million opposing state Sen. Dave Minn’s bid for Congress.

(Ringo Chiu/For the Times)

Minn has campaigned as a different style of Democrat, supporting core progressive issues such as abortion rights and environmental protection, but also as someone who has broken away from the party on certain crime and punishment issues. I’ve been active.

“I’m much more moderate on security and taxes,” Min said in a recent interview with The Times. “And I find that these are the issues that Republicans want me to address the most. So the question is, we need to pull the vote out of context now to try to paint that picture.” That’s it.”

In the months leading up to Election Day, the conservative political action committee sent six mailers to voters in the district, each focusing on Min’s record on criminal justice issues. One mailer features a photo of Min, looking somber under the faded light of red and blue police lights, and criticizes Min, who was arrested for drunk driving in 2023. The ad claims, “Convicted drunk driver Dave Ming is bringing Los Angeles-style crime to Orange County.”

More than $7.5 million was spent on political action committees opposing Min. About $4.4 million was spent opposing Mr. Baugh. Conservative PAC Club for Growth Action has spent about $1.27 million against Min this cycle, and Win It Back PAC has spent more than $1.17 million, according to campaign finance records.

The mailer sent by PAC on Minn’s behalf touts his efforts to create a “safer Orange County” and his efforts to eliminate firearm sales at the OC Fairgrounds.

Baugh also faces criminal charges stemming from accusations that he falsified state-required financial disclosure documents in connection with the 1995 campaign that gave Republicans control of the California Legislature for the first time in 25 years. They are also facing attacks. In 1999, Baugh agreed to pay a $47,900 civil penalty for nine violations of state political reform laws.

At the same time, conservative groups Win It Back and Club For Growth Action sent mailers to voters in the district criticizing Min on criminal justice issues such as cash bail and drunk driving arrests. The “Cash Bail” mailing notes that Min voted in favor of SB 262 in 2021. No. 262 was intended to prevent defendants from paying their release conditions, and required courts to return bail if the defendant’s charges were dropped. This bill was rejected in Congress.

Voters are also watching it on TV and social media.

The TV ad paid for by Win It Back PAC shows Min’s support for a bill that would prohibit the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation from providing release date information to immigration authorities for detainees who may be subject to deportation. is criticizing. The bill had broad support among Democrats in the Legislature, but was vetoed by Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund earlier this month criticized Newsom’s yes vote on the Safer Streets for All Act, which he signed into law in 2022, saying the law would “make it harder for police to investigate sex crimes.” A TV advertisement was aired saying, “It will become.” Supporters say the law was enacted to prevent police officers from profiling loiterers based on their appearance and labeling them prostitutes.

John Gould, dean of the University of California, Irvine’s School of Social Ecology, said the ads are clearly “targeted at people who don’t really care about politics, but still want to vote.”

“They are trying to smear Mr. Min and link him to crimes,” he said.

A recent poll by USC and Cal State Long Beach showed that Ming’s references to drunk driving in attack ads may be working. When asked to name a word or phrase to describe each candidate, Min’s most frequent open-ended mentions were “drunken driving” or “drunken driving.” Recent voters probably associated Mr. Baugh with a “conservative.”

Many voters were not necessarily enthusiastic about the top choice, the poll found. So these ads could be a way to get voters who might not be enthusiastic about the presidential election to vote against him, experts say.

“If you’re excited about crime stories, you’ve probably already decided who’s going to get your vote,” Lesenier said. “If you think crime is everywhere, these mailers are more of a get-out-the-vote campaign for conservative voters.”

Congressional candidate Dave Minn (right) listens to a speech by Congressman Adam B. Schiff at a campaign event in Irvine on Sunday.

(Ringo Chiu/For the Times)

Over the summer, Minn publicly supported Prop. 36, a controversial anti-crime bill aimed at toughening penalties for certain theft and drug offenses, and over the summer was criticized by Newsom and other party leaders. I left.

The ballot measure changes key parts of Prop. 47, a ballot measure passed by voters a decade ago that aims to introduce harsher penalties for repeat retail theft offenders. Additionally, those who commit certain drug offenses will be required to undergo drug treatment as an option rather than being sentenced to prison.

“I think my views on crime and punishment are probably similar to most people I know,” Min said. “I believe that when you commit a crime, you should pay the consequences, and that the punishment should be commensurate with the crime and the harm to society.”

Political action committees spent about $4.4 million opposing Republican Scott Baugh (pictured in 2022).

(Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times)

Baugh, who was an early supporter of Proposition 36, said he has heard similar hesitations from voters in his district when knocking on doors. They are concerned about the effects of inflation, borders, and crime seeping into their communities.

“This is traditionally one of the safest areas in the country,” Bo said. “These are our country’s policies. It sends a message to criminals that it’s okay to commit these crimes. There are no consequences. All it does is encourage it further.” is.”

Many Californians support the voting measure, despite pushback from civil rights groups and prominent Democrats.

A Public Policy Institute poll released last month found that 71% of likely California voters said they would vote in favor of Proposition 36. The number was even higher among voters in Orange County and San Diego, where 74% said they would vote for Proposition 36. Measures of voting.

“Crime is in the news, but you could also say that Orange County residents come here because they don’t want to be involved in crime,” Gould said.