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Carl leads Moore in tight 1st Congressional District primary: poll

In the upcoming Republican primary for Alabama's 1st Congressional District, New AUM poll Revealing the race between two incumbent U.S. Representatives, Jerry Carl and Barry Moore. The poll, conducted by Auburn University's Montgomery School of Government and Government in collaboration with the University of Georgia Center for Survey Research, shows Kahl currently leading Moore by 8 points, with 43% of voters likely identifying as Republican. It was shown that they maintain a 35% lead over Japan. The heated race follows a federal order for Alabama to create new majority-black Congressional districts, resulting in redrawn district lines and pitting incumbents against each other. There was a fight.

Despite the challenges of the redistricted districts, Mr. Kahl appears to have a slight advantage, retaining a larger share of the original electorate compared to Mr. Moore. The poll also highlights a strategic battle for a more conservative candidate, an important factor given the district's Republican turnout. Notably, Karl is perceived as a more moderate and mainstream choice, which influences voters' preferences.

“Respondents do see Kahl as the more moderate, mainstream candidate in this race, and that perception may lead voters to fall into either Kahl or Moore camp. “It's been helpful,” said David Hughes, associate professor of political science at AUM and director of AUM polls. .

“For example, financial aid to Ukraine is a deciding factor in this election,” Hughes said. A total of 51% of survey respondents who said U.S. funding to Ukraine is “about the right amount” supported Kahl, compared to just 25% who supported Moore (a 26-point difference). )was.

Polling results suggest that voters' support is largely determined by their stance on financial aid to Ukraine and their opinions of former President Donald Trump. Kahl has more support among people who think U.S. funding for Ukraine is appropriate and among respondents who have very unfavorable views of President Trump. Additionally, religious views and community type have emerged as important factors, with non-evangelical or non-Born Again Christians and suburban voters strongly favoring Carl, while Moore has more support in rural areas. ing.

The survey surveyed 91,642 people and received 1,909 responses, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment as the main poll approaches. This method ensures a representative sample by weighting responses according to demographic factors such as age, race, gender, and education. With a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points, the results highlight nuances in voter preferences in races that reflect broader themes of conservatism, incumbency, and local versus national issues within the Republican Party.

Topline results from the AUM poll of likely Republican voters in Alabama's 1st Congressional District in the March 5, 2024 U.S. House of Representatives election:

Sample: 1st Congressional District, Alabama Republican Primary Voters Likely

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Sample size: 1,909 responses out of 91,642 text message solicitations

Tolerance of error at 95% confidence: ±2.2 percentage points

Methodology: Respondents were recruited through a probabilistic text-to-web approach and weighted to reflect a representative sample.

Respondents are weighted according to age, race, gender, and education.

Submission date: February 27, 2024

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