CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Monday that former President Donald Trump’s significant gains among non-white voters may be offset by a slight decline in “non-college white voters.” Ta.
Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in all seven battleground states. According to RealClearPolling average. Enten told CNN News Central that if President Trump fails to maintain support among “non-college white voters,” who make up a significant portion of the U.S. electorate, especially in certain key battleground states, 11 He suggested there was a risk of defeat in the elections in January. state. (Related: Harris campaign withdraws economic policy for black men within days of announcing it)
clock:
“That was an important demographic for him. It’s his stronghold, and this is what’s so interesting about it, because we’ve seen so many groups move in the direction of Donald Trump this year. So you’d think his core group, his base, would be doing the same thing. But actually, it’s drifting away from him a little bit. So this is Trump’s lead with non-college white voters. “Enten told host John Berman. “Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him, but actually moving slightly away from him. So if you go back eight years, he won them by 33 And if you go back four years, he beat them by the age of 31.”
“What we’re seeing is that in the latest polling average, he’s only up 27 points. This may not seem like a big deal, but black voters, for example, Given that he’s seen such double-digit increases among Hispanic voters, some polls suggest that voters are paying attention and that this core group of supporters is actually moving away from him. “The fact is that we are moving away not only from the 2016 baseline, but also from the 2020 baseline,” he continued. “I think that’s a pretty interesting development.”
Trump made inroads with key Democratic voting blocs, including: black and hispanic Voters do, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll.
“Why do small differences with this group matter? Because look at what percentage of the electorate they represent. So why not look at it nationally? Look at this “Non-college white voters make up 40% of the electorate, compared with 29% for all other groups and voters of color,” Enten said. added. “So, this is what we’ve seen across the board, right? It’s that while Donald Trump is losing a little bit, he’s making big gains in groups that make up a smaller percentage of the electorate. But these groups, which he is slowly losing, represent a larger portion of the electorate.”
“But more than that, we’re talking about the U.S., where they’re 40 percent A. Why not go to the major Great Lakes battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin? ?These Great Lakes battleground states are importing too much,” he said. “Non-college white voters, look at this: They make up a majority of voters, 51%, far more than 30% of white college voters and far more than 16% of other voters. So if we see movement among non-college whites in the Great Lakes battleground states, that could be a huge development, John.
The data reporter pointed out that President Trump is losing some support from these key battleground states. Trump leads Harris by 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, but only by 0.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 0.2 percentage points in Wisconsin, according to RealClearPolling averages.
“And if Donald Trump’s support is shrinking among the core group that makes up the majority of the electorate, he can compensate for large shifts among smaller groups of voters, which is why Kamala Harris remains That’s why we’re in the right ballgame.’Right now,” Enten said. “It means that even though she is losing in the big leagues, she is losing in the big leagues among groups that make up a small number of voters, and even if the movement is small, she is losing in the big leagues among groups that make up a large portion of voters. Because we’re winning. But it’s clear here.”
All content produced by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent, nonpartisan news distribution service, is available free of charge to legitimate news publishers with large audiences. All republished articles must include our logo, reporter byline, and DCNF affiliation. If you have any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact us at licensing@dailycallernewsfoundation.org.
