CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Thursday analyzed why Vice President Kamala Harris' support among young voters is historically low compared to past Democratic presidential candidates.
Enten said the Harris campaign is “pleased” to receive the endorsement from pop singer Taylor Swift. Vice President Harris' approval rating among 18-29 year olds is up just 15 points over Republican candidate Donald Trump, a sharp drop from the 28-point lead President Joe Biden had among that age group in the 2020 election. Biden held a 7-point lead over Trump among young voters before dropping out of the race on July 21.
“Let me point out one thing that I've been pointing out all this campaign: Joe Biden, and now even Kamala Harris, are disappointing among younger voters,” Enten said. “This is the margin between Democrats and Trump in the 18-29 age group, the under 30 age group. Four years ago at this time, Joe Biden had a 28-point lead over Donald Trump. When Joe Biden dropped out of the race, the margin was only seven points. Now, Kamala Harris is outperforming Joe Biden, but look at this: She's only behind by 15 points. That's significantly smaller than Joe Biden had among the youngest voters at this point in the race.”
“So Kamala Harris would absolutely welcome Taylor Swift's endorsement if she can mobilize younger voters, because at the end of the day, Kamala Harris hasn't done as well with younger voters as you would expect Democrats to necessarily do based on history,” Enten continued.
CNN's Harry Enten examines Kamala Harris' “disappointment” with young voters pic.twitter.com/oE5iujMlfQ
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According to data presented by Enten, Democrats still lead Republicans in registered voters in battleground states, but their numbers have dropped significantly from September 2020 to September 2024. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic lead fell from 559,000 in September 2020 to 169,000 in 2024, and in North Carolina it fell from 415,000 to 128,000. (Related: CNN's Harry Enten sounds the alarm about Harris' fading lead in 'crucial' battleground states)
Enten said the numbers show Republicans have “done a significantly better job” of registering voters and persuading people to switch from Democrats to Republicans over the past four years.
“I mean, over the last four years, Republicans have done a much better job than Democrats at registering voters and getting people to switch from Democrat registration to Republican registration,” Enten said. “So if Taylor Swift can bring in more young voters, more Democratic-leaning voters, Kamala Harris would certainly welcome that idea, because at the end of the day, over the last four years, Republicans have done a much better job than Democrats at registering voters.”
The data reporter said that 337,826 users had clicked on the link to Vote.Gov in Swift's Instagram post as of Wednesday afternoon, meaning that many of those viewers may be new to the electorate.
“Democrats will accept any help they can get because, at the end of the day, this is a very close election and any small impact could have a big impact,” Enten concluded.
Rapid Urged While accepting her award at MTV's 2024 Video Music Awards on Wednesday, she encouraged fans to register to vote.
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