CNN's Harry Enten said Monday that the 2024 presidential race is “the closest we've ever seen,” and warned that a “margin of error” could tilt the election in favor of either candidate.
The race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tight, and the two have been locked in a tug-of-war over who will win the polls in key battleground states. Enten appeared on Anderson Cooper 360 to discuss the back and forth in polls about who is projected to win the November election, highlighting that Harris would win the Electoral College if the race were to be decided with her current polling rankings at the top.
“I think Republicans thought early last week that Kamala Harris was seen as the favorite in the Great Lakes polls. Many Democrats would argue it's too early, but there's still more than a month left,” Enten said. “Certainly, things could change at this particular point, but at the end of the day, this is one of the most stable races on record. If you would have asked me a month ago who was leading in the national polls, I would have said Kamala Harris had a slight lead. I would have also said she had a slight lead in the Great Lakes battleground polls.”
“But Anderson, at the end of the day, this is the closest race I've ever seen. You can really see that by looking at the electoral map, right? Let's take a moment to trust the polls and assign states to whoever's leading the polls, even if they have a very slight lead. What do you get? Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes and Donald Trump gets 262,” Enten continued. “It's going to be the closest race since 2000, right? Electoral College-wise. And of course, this map is because Kamala Harris is leading in the battleground states around the Great Lakes and Donald Trump is doing well along the Sunbelt.”
Enten also said that applying a margin of error meant that either Trump or Harris could win because the data so far had underestimated each party, and warned CNN host Anderson Cooper that polls are “rarely accurate”. (Related article: Harris' approval rating remains stable in post-debate polls despite claiming victory)
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“But here's something to remember: What if you look at this map now and apply the polling errors that occurred in 2020? If the polls had underestimated Donald Trump, he would have won all the battleground states. For example, he would have won the Great Lakes battleground states. But if you [to] If we apply the errors made in 2022, the polls will underestimate Democrats and Kamala Harris will win, winning all battleground states.
“This map would be if the polls were exactly accurate, but I'm here to tell you, Anderson, polls are rarely exactly accurate. There is a margin of error. There is a margin of error for a reason, and at the end of the day, at this point, either candidate has a pretty reasonable chance of winning this election,” Enten said.
In the latest opinion poll, The New York Times/Siena College The poll found that voters in Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina believe the former president improved their lives under his administration and are concerned Harris won't be able to repeat the results. In a survey conducted in the three states from Sept. 17 to 21, the data showed Trump leading Harris by five points in Arizona, two points in North Carolina and four points in Georgia.
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