Donald Trump's landslide victory in the New Hampshire presidential primary on Tuesday likely hurt fellow Republican Steve Garvey in the California Senate race.
More on that later.
But before that, there is another political paradox. The Republican, who is trailing in the Senate, received help from his three main Democratic opponents in Monday night's televised debate. That's because they flocked to him and fled.
Garvey will need to garner enough Republican votes in California's March 5 primary to finish second and qualify for the November general election. And nothing connects a Republican candidate to party loyalty more than Democrats attacking that candidate.
Mr. Trump has proven that.
Even if Democrats don't like Mr. Garvey, he must be the right candidate for the job in the minds of many Republican voters.
Now, back to New Hampshire.
All Garvey needed was a defeat from Trump, or at least a close enough second place for his remaining rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, to head into his home state's Feb. 24 primary. The goal was to gain momentum.
South Carolina is a stronghold of President Trump. It would be seen as a major victory for him there, as the former president effectively secured the Republican nomination. That would be bad news for Garvey.
The former Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padre first baseman needs California's primary to be considered competitive in order to attract large numbers of Republican votes. If the Republican nomination is seen as a done deal, there will be less incentive to vote.
In California, Republican voters outnumber Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin. The top two Senate candidates, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff election in November. So Garvey's hopes of finishing in second place — forgetting first place — depend on strong Republican turnout.
“If it's reasonably competitive here, Republican turnout will go up. If it's all over, that's not good for Garvey,” said the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's California campaign. said Bill Carrick, a veteran Democratic political consultant who directed the program. What the current candidates are trying to capture is Feinstein's old home.
Polls show Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank as the frontrunner. And he probably cemented his place as the number one debater with his consistent performance.
Garvey and Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, are in a close race for the No. 2 spot, with Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) not far behind. There are many voters who are still undecided.
The former Major League All-Star received help from his Democratic opponent during the debate.
“By the time the three Democrats got along with him, they were starting to get his point across to Republican voters,” said a former Republican operative who teaches political communication at the University of Southern California and the University of California, Berkeley. says Dan Schnur. “Every time they criticize Garvey, they're sending a message to Republicans to solidify their support for him.”
“There is no chance he will be a senator,” Schnurr added. “But he was the most important person on stage. Both Porter and Lee think they can beat Schiff head on in November. But if Garvey finishes second, he'll never get the chance. Probably.
“For Schiff, nothing would make him happier than playing against Garvey.”
No Republican has won a statewide election in California since 2006.
Republican consultant Rob Stutzman, who is not involved in the Senate race, reported that Garvey did not take clear positions on some issues after the debate and was hedging whether to support Trump. He says that being criticized by institutions also helped.
“It doesn't hurt Republican voters that the media bashes Mr. Garvey for not having a clear position,” Stutzman told me. “Republican voters are less responsive to media criticism of the Republican Party.
“They'll be content to run a high-profile Republican for the Senate and send a Republican message in November. That hasn't happened since. [former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive] Carly Fiorina ran for office in 2010. ”
I think Garvey is being criticized for not saying outright whether he would vote for Trump. He's already been through it twice. And it probably will be again. “In both cases, he was the best person for the job,” he said during the debate.
However, Garvey has refused to get involved in the election.
“Once a Dodger, always a Dodger,” Porter declared in one of the night's great lines. “Mr. Garvey, this is not the minor leagues. Who do you vote for?”
Garvey responded, “When the time comes, I'm going to look at my two opponents, judge what they did, and make my choice then.”
This looks like a glass half full of water. Mr. Garvey deserves praise from Democrats for showing his mettle. He is the rare Republican candidate who didn't get in the long line to kiss President Trump's ring. At least not yet.
In fact, not committing to the Republican idol could hurt him among Trump admirers.
“As long as he's not criticizing Trump, he'll be fine with Republican voters,” Stutzman said. “I'm impressed that he's taking the bravest stand of any Republican U.S. Senate candidate.”
But his vagueness drew criticism from Democrats.
“Steve Garvey couldn't get to first base,” said former State University Atty. General Bill Lockyer told me. “He's a wonderful person who is very good at policy and politics.”
“It's terrible,” Carrick said. “There is nothing of substance.”
But Schnurr said, “He came across as a non-threatening Republican.”
It was a good debate hosted by USC's Fox 11 News and Politico. Better than most presidential debates, and definitely better than the recent Republican presidential debates.
Mr. Garvey won the debate based on political dynamics rather than performance, and was the loser in New Hampshire.