Escalating gunfights between Yemen-based Houthi rebels and US forces in the Red Sea appear likely to subside until the Biden administration halts a cycle of self-destruction that could lead to a protracted conflict. No, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Biden administration officials, as well as the rebels themselves, have warned that U.S. attacks on Houthi missile facilities in Yemen have so far done little to deter them from continuing attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea. recognized. Amid growing concerns that the United States could be drawn in, neither the government nor experts see an imminent end to hostilities, and the president has no choice but to directly pressure Iran, the source of the Houthis' military power. There are few options, experts told DCNF. In the Middle East, there has been an even longer period of hostility.
“Are they stopping the Houthis? No. Will they continue? Yes,” President Joe Biden said Thursday, following the latest self-defense strike against a missile prepared to fire at a commercial ship.
Surgical strikes aimed only at imminent attacks have become routine as the Biden administration seeks to avoid actions that Iran might view as provocative.
Experts told DCNF that the Houthis will continue to fire missiles and drones at U.S. ships indefinitely. (Related: Navy re-enlistment on U.S. warships surges after Houthi missile shootdown operation)
“As long as the Biden administration continues to fight behind the scenes, single-handed, to stop this, this situation will continue,” Nathan Sales, a former State Department counterterrorism coordinator, told DCNF. “They shouldn't be afraid of us any more than we are, but I just don't get that feeling right now.”
The Houthis have asserted that airstrikes will not deter the attack and have expanded their designated targets to include U.S.-owned and operated vessels. They have previously said that only shipping linked to Israel is under threat, but the actual attacks do not appear to be discriminatory. The Pentagon said more than 50 countries involved in cargo ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were affected by the attacks.
Experts said playing whack-a-mole with individual Houthi capabilities was not a long-term solution. “With a retaliatory strategy, the Houthis and Iran will continue to target shipping,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior fellow Bill Roggio told DCNF, adding that the Houthis are likely to achieve what they want. He added that it is the highest. Until they pay the real price. ”
Sales said the illusion of restoring the nuclear deal with Iran has put the administration in a bind when it comes to addressing the factors behind the Houthi attacks.
“The Houthis are the symptom and Iran is the disease. Until the regime gets serious about restoring deterrence against Iran, Iran will continue to give the Houthis and other terrorist groups free rein to target the United States and commercial shipping. Deaf,” Sales told DCNF.
U.S. Navy special operatives in the Gulf of Aden on Tuesday made the first seizure of Iranian weapons parts destined for Yemen's Houthi rebels, the military's Middle East Command announced in a statement Tuesday.
Sales explained that the United States has self-defense justification for directly attacking Iranian assets, including Iranian naval vessels operating in the Red Sea and allegedly providing targeting information to the Houthis. “We have all the cards. We're just scared to play them,” he said.
On Friday, the White House struggled to address why the Houthis do not appear to be afraid of the United States. There is no need for conflict. But this firefight we've seen in recent days doesn't need to continue for another day if the Houthis make the right decision to stop their attacks,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said. Said.
Mr. Kirby could not explain why U.S. retaliation would not scare the Houthis into abandoning operations to harass ships and national navies in the Red Sea. “I don’t know what the alternative will be,” he said.
January 19, 2024 Updated infographics on Houthi missiles, drones, USVs, manned boat launches, and interception by coalition warships, and updated Atalanta Visualized Threat Update spreadsheet.
Total interceptions/attacks by US and coalition forces.
3x ASCM
6x LACM
7x ASBM
79x drone
3x speed… pic.twitter.com/fwqaa7TuA9— Intel Schizo (@Schizointel) January 19, 2024
Biden administration officials reiterated that actions taken by the Pentagon in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, including sending U.S. Navy assets to the Red Sea, were meant to contain the conflict.
And the Pentagon said Wednesday that the conflict between Israel and Hamas has escalated across the region as violence escalates across the region following a U.S.-led attack on Yemen's Houthi strongholds and a retaliatory attack on a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel. claimed not to have done so.
Mick Mulroy, a former assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, said: “While the United States is trying to prevent the war from escalating, Iran appears intent on escalating the war, which could draw the United States into a regional conflict.'' There is a gender,” he said. Marine Corps officers and CIA militia officers told DCNF.
On Wednesday, the administration formally moved to officially register the Houthis as a specially designated global terrorist organization, a designation that would allow the administration to disrupt terrorist financing for the group.
The US and UK shelled more than 60 targets on January 11th. include It contained a warehouse of weapons, equipment, radars and missile launchers, and more than 150 rounds of ammunition were fired from ships, submarines and aircraft in the area. In a unilateral follow-up action a day after the Houthis shelled another merchant ship, the US destroyed a radar site linked to the attack. The Pentagon has declined to assess the damage, citing operational security and intelligence concerns, but Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, the Pentagon's chief of operations, said: Said Immediately after the attack, he was fairly confident that the attack would hamper the Houthis' ability to attack.
Military officials said they expected the Houthis to carry out retaliatory attacks against ships and possibly US vessels, but their ability to carry out complex operations would likely be diminished.
“I don't believe they could do it the way they did the other day,” Sims said, referring to the Jan. 9 incident in which multiple U.S. warships shot down 24 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles in a single attack. “I haven't,” he said. . “But we'll see,” he added.
Sabrina Singh, Deputy Press Secretary, Department of Defense walked That rating will be slightly restored on Thursday. “I'm not saying she can't do it, but she's certainly less capable than she was yesterday or the day before,” she says.
“It's clear that the Houthis and their Iranian backer have no intention of stopping attacks on commercial ships and U.S. Navy vessels. I don't think the White House or the Pentagon believe that will happen.” Mulroy told DCNF.
The Houthis targeted and in some cases attacked several commercial ships in the week following the multilateral counterattack. This included, for the first time, U.S.-flagged and U.S.-owned vessels. bulk carrier and US-owned tankerAccording to the US Central Command (CENTCOM).
The United States also launched five pre-emptive self-defense efforts aimed at immediately interrupting a planned attack after the Central Communications Agency observed the Houthis launching missiles into the Red Sea and preparing to destroy them. carried out an attack. at least The statement said there were 24 anti-ship missiles — the latest on Saturday.
“We never said the Houthis would stop immediately. That's something they have to decide and calculate,” Singh said.
“I think it's in their best interest to stop it. Since Thursday, we've seen that we were able to degrade, seriously disrupt and destroy a significant number of them. But… “It's really up to them to decide that they want to stop interfering with commercial shipping and innocent seafarers transiting the Red Sea,” she added.
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