“Today our society needs oil and gas. It will take decades, and if we don’t invest enough, [oil] The price will be $150 or $200 per barrel instead of $75, making all consumers very unhappy and making our lives a nightmare. ‘ said Patrick Pouyanne, his CEO of Total Energies, in a recent interview. CNBC.
Mr. Pouyanne is certainly not alone in his assessment, even though he’s closer to the situation than most. In fact, the world is not engaged in any kind of true ‘energy transition’ at all, but rather a massive diversification and expansion of all kinds of energy resources. That includes wind and solar, renewable energy sources that are in the midst of huge multi-trillion-dollar expansion driven by global government subsidies, but also nuclear power, coal, wood, biofuels, and oil and natural gas. is also included. (Related: David Blackmon: Biden is spreading environmental subsidies around like a Las Vegas gambler)
a New Analysis Released This Week The report, by Energy Outlook Advisors (EOA), a Texas-based advisory group led by Anas Alhaj, says the popular energy transition narrative of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is literally an illusion. It clearly shows why.
Let’s start with China and its ‘net zero by 2060’ pledge as a prime example. “China is the world’s largest investor in renewable energy,” Alhaj said. “It will take China 211 years to reach carbon neutrality at this pace of investment. But here are the pitfalls.: This figure assumes that all current renewable projects will last forever and require no new investment when they expire in 25-30 years. This shows that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 or even beyond is a pipe dream. ”
Europe is another great example, where countries have spent trillions of euros on decarbonization efforts this century. Despite these huge investments, the EOA report notes that fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas will account for 71% of Europe’s primary energy consumption in 2022. In China, the figure for 2022 was 82%. In India, her second most populous country in the world, that percentage was 89% for him.
Fossil fuels have only slightly lower dominance in the power generation sector. Europe managed to generate 41% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2022, compared with 38% from fossil fuels and 19% of the continent’s electricity demand from nuclear power. Coal is still king in China and India, and Asia’s he produces 61% and 74% of the electricity supply in the two largest countries.
Globally, fossil fuels generated 61% of electricity in 2022, the same percentage as the United States. The breakdown of this proportion is unlikely to change significantly over the next few decades, as demand for electricity is projected to increase dramatically in the coming years with the growing need for charging electric vehicles.
These and other specific data points cited in the report led Alhaj to the following conclusions: “Most, if not all, countries will not be able to reach carbon neutrality or net-zero targets by 2050 or 2060. The harsh reality is that we have spent more than $4 trillion on solar and wind energy since 2010, yet we have made little progress in the energy landscape. about it.”
As for oil and gas, “data show that future demand for oil and gas is underestimated while demand disruption is hyped,” the report adds. This conclusion is supported by repeated upward revisions to global demand forecasts by both OPEC and the International Energy Agency this year.
These are all themes I’ve been writing about since the beginning of 2022, and we’ll see a growing consensus forming around them throughout 2023. This EOA report of his will definitely help cement that consensus by documenting the wealth of hard data that underpins it.
This is an important report that everyone should take the time to read and understand.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent his 40 years in the oil and gas business, specializing in public policy and communications.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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