What if they spike oil prices and no one comes? It’s certainly like the lame play of an old proverb about political parties, but that happened over two weeks from June 12, when Israel launched its first attack on Iran.

At the end of the day’s deal, domestic US WTI prices soil $68.04 per barrel. As of this writing on June 24th, the price is $64.50. It’s not only the price spikes, but the opposite of a 5% drop in just two weeks.

So, what happened? Why didn’t crude oil prices rise significantly? For a seemingly complex trading market that is affected daily by a variety of factors, the answer here is surprisingly simple and doesn’t spurred by two important factors.

• There is no Israel or the US I tried hard Targeting Iran’s refinement or export infrastructure.
• Despite the sporadic sabers rattling and sporadic sabers on Iranian officials, they made no real effort to block the flow of coarse tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point in the region.

Hitting Iran’s infrastructure could have taken a pretty rough export. International Energy Agency Estimates It reaches 1.7 million barrels per day – a huge hit from the global market. Shut down the Strait of Hormuz 20% of world crude oil The daily routine was a much bigger hit, with priced upward spirals. (Related: FBI will begin investigating leaked Iran damage report, Hegus says)

However, the oil continued to flow, muting a relatively small minority rise in the price that occurred.

Written by respected analyst David Ramsden Wood His “Hot K Day” subsack The newsletter summed it up very well. “Oil is still structurally bearish. US producers are in PR mode. They are actually recording “drills, babies, drills” while slowing down. Capex decreases. The number of rigs is decreasing. Shareholders want returns rather than growth.

There’s no doubt that crude prices will sway in the sky 10 years ago, both in news about Israel’s first attacks on military and political targets on June 12th and last Saturday’s US bombing operation. At the time, crude oil prices of over $100 per barrel could have been expected to be even higher. The market was really responding to the “Middle Eastern tensions” that Ramsden Wood mostly refers to, as there was no real way to analyze all the uncertainties that such events might create.

It’s different now. Things have changed. The rise of advances in machine learning, AI, and other technological and communications has played a major role.

In the past, lack of real-time information during rising tensions in the Middle East often left traders in the dark for long periods of time on the potential impact on production in the world’s largest oil-producing region. But that’s not the case anymore. Traders can now assess potential impacts almost immediately.

This has been especially true throughout this recent upset because of President Donald Trump’s transparency about everything that’s going on. You could know exactly what the US was trying to do or did by pressing the “Update” button regularly on Trump’s Truth Social Feed.

Tim Stewart, president of the DC-based American Oil and Gas Association, has this term. “The market is much better at building ’47 variables’ into a short-term model,” he said in an email. “This is not a Republican administration. It’s a destructive management and the confusion happens both ways, so the old playbooks don’t apply anymore. Traders take into account the president that he means what he says, and it’s best to plan that.”

In addition to the reality that a high percentage of crude transactions are currently taking place via automated, AI-controlled programs, few transactions are now being made in the dark.

Therefore, the world saw a surge in prices, but it did not happen despite being widely predicted by many clever people, and the reason is very simple.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialised in public policy and communication.

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