Back on July 13th, the Arizona Bureau of Meteorology issued a Long Range Weather Advisory due to the rising monsoon. This appears to be on track, as the advisory said Mogollon Lim and Southeast Arizona would accept the first event and move to Phoenix in time.
Read the previously issued advisory here – https://arizonaweatherforce.com/2023/07/13/long-range-weather-advisory-issued-ahead-of-high-risk-monsoonal-influence-includes-arizona-metro-areas/

The Arizona Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch for Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise counties today. There will be more easterly waves tomorrow, so that possibility will increase even more.

As the monsoon ridge surges into the center of the Four Corners region, eastward currents on the southern margin will be aligned with activity from Mexico. This causes a twist in the axis of the pressure center, forming an eastward wave. A storm will form in the highlands and move west on Sunday. This is the type that causes storms in both Pinal and Maricopa counties, so I don’t understand why some of you can’t see it. It will be the start of the first ‘Rimrunners’, although not a huge boost like we’ll see in the next month’s period. Storms originate at high altitudes and use the heat of lowlands to increase their intensity.

The storm from Sunday evening into the night could push into the Kingman and Havasu/Parker forecast areas, so will be monitored in the morning for further updates.

long distance: As in the 2021 season, the end of July and especially the first half of August saw severe high-risk storms from the high altitudes. This trend is likely to continue, and no change is expected in the seasonal forecast. In terms of heat, June will be below-normal, July will be above-normal, and August will be below-normal due to storm activity and increased surface moisture to moderate the main heat.

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– Raiden Storm –

Master General Meteorologist – is a consulting meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in over 50 different companies including energy, agriculture, aviation, marine, leisure and many other sectors. As a meteorologist, he is a Mississippi Meteorologist and a Pennsylvania Forecaster MET 101, 241, 341, 361. Prior to that, he was completely self-taught and learned very little from school.

Knowing both short and long distances is very important in these jobs, so you can bet on accuracy here. With over 25 years of experience, he is well versed in areas such as the western United States, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, high winds, fire behavior, snow and blizzards, short and long range, seasonality, and life-threatening judgments, predicting all currently available weather services with lead times and accuracy that makes him the subject of ridicule and envy.

Note: Warnings such as tornado watchers are posted here. These alerts are issued from this office and not elsewhere. Occasionally, alert forecasts are posted here that aren’t seen elsewhere (which is common).