Fortune magazine reports that the estimate includes an unusually high number of jobs in the government sector, prompting experts to sound alarm bells over recent employment figures.
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) liberated Friday’s monthly employment report showed June’s job gains of just 209,000, less than economists had expected and far less than the 309,000 job gains in May. The BLS also reported a significant increase in new government jobs, with 60,000 new jobs added in June and an average of 63,000 new jobs per month for the year, up from 2 new jobs last year. 3,000, which some economists say is an indicator of a coming recession.according to luck. (Related: Bidennomics? New employment data shows more Americans struggling to find full-time jobs)
Will Luther, an economics professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Fortune magazine, “The Fed’s plan to continue to tighten excessively hurts the economy when the jobs numbers suddenly point to weaker growth and rapidly declining inflation. It puts you in a dangerous position,” he said. “This big number could continue for a few more months … but that figure will slow significantly as official figures approach early-2020 levels.”
Economist Peter Earle of the American Bureau of Economic Research told the Daily Caller News Foundation that he believes a recession is likely in the future and that the lack of private sector employment is a sign of slowing economic growth. Told.
“It is a sign of slowing growth that the productive part of society that must serve customers and make a profit quits its jobs, while those who make a living out of those jobs continue to do so. It’s very likely,” Earl said. “Two-and-a-half years of high inflation and interest rates now at their highest level since 2007 are adding to the deterioration in the economic outlook.”
Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at brokerage firm Raymond James, told Fortune magazine that he believes weak private employment growth is “the first sign that the U.S. will slow significantly in the second half of 2023.” Told.
“We have already created 85% of the jobs created in 2019 when the economy grew by 2.2% … Unless the economy accelerates, there is no reason to hire more workers,” Allemann told Fortune magazine.
Earle told the DCNF he believes the upcoming recession is part of a broader trend of worsening economic performance.
“The United States will probably enter World War II.” [part] There will be a double-dip recession (the first recession will be a GDP decline in the first and second quarters of 2022),” Earl said. “I think the next recession will likely happen by September 2024.”
The government was one of the few industries that did not have confidence intervals that did not include zero for the monthly change in employment in June, and even the BLS was increasingly uncertain whether jobs were increasing across the economy. is on the rise. pic.twitter.com/cRWDlP8LXi
— EJ Antoni (@RealEJAntoni) July 11, 2023
E.J. Antoni, a researcher at the Grover M. Harman Center for the Federal Budget at the Heritage Foundation, doesn’t necessarily believe that a large increase in government jobs is a sign of an upcoming recession, but rather individual jobs. points out the low reliability of Sectors from the BLS report.
“More worrying is the fact that the confidence intervals for the estimates for almost all sectors other than government included zero, which suggests that the BLS cannot say that the changes are statistically significant. It means that,” Antoni told the DCNF in a statement. “Even the Labor Department in the Biden administration is increasingly uncertain whether jobs are increasing across the economy.”
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