After months of anticipation, El Niño has officially arrived.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Announcement of El Niño The weather pattern, among other impacts, warned that Southern California could experience another wet winter and warmer temperatures around the world.
“Depending on its strength, El Niño could cause a range of impacts, including increasing the risk of heavy rains and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michel Rouleux, a climate scientist at the Center for Climate Prediction, in a statement. ‘ said. .
(Paul Dugginski/Los Angeles Times)
In fact, climate patterns are the main drivers of weather conditions around the world.
This is the warm period of the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation pattern (also known as ENSO), characterized by higher-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, and occurring on average every 2 to 7 times. . Year.
In the United States, El Niño effects are typically weaker during the summer and more pronounced in late fall and early spring.
Forecasters say the system has an 84% chance of a moderate intensity and a 56% chance of a strong peak event.
“A moderate to strong El Niño event typically occurs in the fall and winter, bringing wetter-than-normal conditions from Southern California to the Gulf Coast and drier-than-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley,” the advisory said. ing. “El Niño winters also increase the likelihood of above-average temperatures across the northern regions of the country.”
But human-made climate change could exacerbate or mitigate some of its effects, such as setting new temperature records, Rouleux said.
Eric Bolt, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Oxnard, said it was no coincidence that 2016, the warmest year on Earth, was an El Niño year.
“There’s a lot of talk that next year could be the warmest year on record,” Bolt said.
of The World Meteorological Organization recently predicted There is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, and the five years as a whole, will be the hottest on record.
Any category of El Niño — weak, moderate, or strong — could bring above-normal precipitation in Southern California, Bolt said, after this year’s unexpectedly wet winter. He said it meant there could be consecutive wet years. .
However, he added that it is not a guarantee.
“Whenever we talk about El Niño, historically total precipitation in Southern California has been above normal most of the time, but not all,” Bolt said.
He said the 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but failed to bring significant rainfall, flooding, or other expected impacts in Southern California, and rainfall eventually fell. I noted that it stayed about 6 inches.
But El Niño can also have ripple effects, including economic and agricultural impacts, not only in California but around the world.
a Research published last month The researchers found that the 1982-1983 El Niño contributed an estimated $4.1 trillion in global income losses over the next five years, while the 1997-1998 El Niño contributed an estimated $5.7 trillion in losses. I discovered what I did.
A study found that the median loss from future events could be at least $3 trillion by 2029.
Rising winter temperatures could also affect crops in California and other agricultural regions, especially those that require high cold during winter dormancy, such as pistachios, cherries, and pears.
Researchers say it could also result in earlier germination and flowering, a longer growing season, and increased pressure from agricultural pests.
UCLA climate scientist Danielle Swain said El Niño may already have had some impact on global circulation patterns, but it could also be due to the strengthening of subtropical jet streams and record ocean warmth.
“So, in some ways, this is a year in which there are no reasonable historical parallels,” Swain wrote on his blog. weather west.
“In the midst of record-breaking ocean warming from climate change, we’re speeding toward a potentially strong El Niño event after a rare tertiary La Niña event,” Swain said. “It’s a combination you don’t see very often in modern times, and it’s a little hard to say what that means in the coming months.”
He added that in terms of regional and even global climate, “it’s fair to say that there is even more uncertainty than usual about how the next six months or so will unfold.” rice field.
The prospect has arrived as the weather continues to cool and cloudy in Southern California, in contrast to almost anywhere in the world that has been unusually warm in recent months.
up to date NOAA Monthly Outlook indicates that much of Southern California and the Southwest will remain below normal through the end of the month.
But while Los Angeles is still shrouded in the gloomy June atmosphere, Canada’s wildfires blanketed the area, and much of the East Coast, in thick smoke, creating some of the worst atmospheric conditions on Earth. ing.
