Former President Donald Trump's path to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris is looking increasingly narrow, but it could depend on which candidate wins Pennsylvania, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Pennsylvania has the most Weight He won 19 electoral votes in all seven battleground states, and 12 of the 15 presidents have Secure Their victories were due to state support: Trump and Harris are currently in a close race in Pennsylvania, and which candidate handles the economy best could be the deciding factor in winning the state, experts told DCNF. (Related: Trump sharply criticized voters' top concerns during Republican National Convention speech, but Harris barely mentioned them.)
“I think whoever wins Pennsylvania will win the presidency,” John McHenry, a Republican polling analyst and vice president of North Star Opinion Research, told DCNF. “Certainly, there are other ways to put all the pieces together, but the math is pretty grim if Trump doesn't win Pennsylvania.”
JOHNSTOWN, PA – SEPTEMBER 13: Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris poses for a selfie with Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) and his wife Gisele Barrett Fetterman (R) after greeting supporters at the John Martha Johnstown Cambria Airport in Johnstown, Pennsylvania on September 13, 2024. (Photo by Andrew Harnick/Getty Images)
“Simply put, this is the biggest battleground state,” McHenry told DCNF. “To fill the 19 electoral votes, they would need to combine North Carolina and Nevada or Georgia and Wisconsin. There are other ways to fill them, but this is a close state. I can't see anyone winning by more than two points on either side.”
“Harris is leading in the national polls, but she's very close in some state polls,” Democratic strategist Dheeraj Chand told DCNF. “These state polls are going to be important in this election, and I think Pennsylvania is one of them.”
Harris holds a slight lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, with some polls showing the two in a close race. According to Harris and Trump are also tied in the Keystone State at 49%, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. According to 48 percent, according to a Marist poll released Thursday. According to According to a Washington Post poll published the same day. (Related story: 'Disgusting': Republican letter warns that battleground state Democrats may be illegally recruiting out-of-state poll watchers)
Both candidates have devoted a lot of time and resources to the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. 2016Trump won all three states to become president for the first time, but then lost every Democratic-leaning state. 2020.
“I think Pennsylvania is a scary place for people because the path to victory is so precarious and you have to do everything right,” Chand told the DCNF. “So it's about how you get the bracket right. And I would say Pennsylvania is a really delicate place.”
“Pennsylvania is a true battleground state,” Maryland-based Democratic strategist Len Foxwell told DCNF. “Its voting history in presidential elections, the makeup of its state legislature, and the philosophical leanings of its electorate make it a very centrist-type state. And I believe a centrist will win this presidential election.”
“middleFoxwell said presidential candidates need to balance the support of Philadelphia Democrats with the state's rural voters. (Related: “Less atmosphere, more policies”: Here's why Harris' approval rating is lower than past Democratic candidates)
“Philadelphia has a huge Democratic city and county that almost completely offsets the rural and small town voters,” McHenry told DCNF. “Philadelphia is kind of the center of gravity, and the rest of the state offsets that.”
“I think this race is going to be a win for the middle class,” Foxwell told DCNF. “It's going to be mostly suburban wins and it's going to be a win on economic issues.”
Currently, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who Harris passed over in her running mate selection, and the two senators, Bob Casey and John Fetterman, are both Democrats, but Republican candidate David McCormick is trailing Casey in the polls, and the two candidates are tied. According to According to a new Washington Post poll. (Related: Exclusive: Dave McCormick announces plans to move key federal agencies away from Washington DC's Beltway)
Oil and fracking are among Pennsylvania's major economic industries, but Harris has historically opposed the industry.
During her first presidential campaign in 2020, Harris said,There is no doubt“If I'm president, I'll stop fracking,” she said. However, during the September 10 debate, Harris Reversed She stated her position and insisted that she was “not going to ban fracking.”
“If Pennsylvania voters were to actually poll, they would find out that Vice President Harris does not support fracking,” McHenry told the DCNF. “Certainly, she lied to the public in that moment. She either made the presidential version of a deathbed confession or she lied.”
“Pennsylvania is a bellwether,” Foxwell told the DCNF. “Given its size, its importance in the election and the demographics that are represented in the electorate, I think it's certainly going to be a pivotal battleground going into the final weeks.”
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