Some areas have been drenched lately, but the latest American Farmers Federation drought survey shows that there is still long road to recoverySixty percent of the western, southwestern, and central plains of the United States are classified as having a D1 (moderate) drought or higher, severely impacting agricultural production and commodities. in dangercould impact consumers with higher prices and product shortages.

This survey 4th survey conducted by AFBF Assess the impact of drought on farms and ranches. The survey He conducted between October 19th and He December 13th, quantified the ground-level drought impact. This includes state affiliation, crop- and livestock-specific factors, and demographic questions that help differentiate access to water in general.

In total, 16 states were surveyed, including Texas and north, along the Plains to North Dakota, including California in the west, and 550 responses were included. According to the AFBF, these states provide nearly half of the nation’s $364 billion production value, including 74% of beef cattle, 50% of dairy production and 80% of wheat production. .

Yields are greatly reduced

Yields are likely to decline, but there has been a slight drop in the number of farmers trying to switch crops, or until their crops fail, since the summer results of 2022. Slightly improved moisture in parts of the west provides contrasting conditions to a year ago.

Of the 550 responses, 76% rated drought-induced yield loss as prevalent or worse in their area. This was slightly higher than the summer 2022 results (74%) and the fall 2021 results (72%).

Respondents expect drought to reduce average yields by 44% in 2022, with Texas (down 66%) the most, followed by Kansas (down 63%) and Nevada (down 60%). expected.

A farmer in Pinal County, Arizona, said, “We couldn’t plant cotton and we didn’t have enough water for barley. By now we need to harvest 8-10 alfalfa plants, but we can only harvest one.” It was.”

Respondents surveyed also indicated that 29% intend to switch crops planned for the growing season due to drought. This is lower than the 42% this summer and the 37% in the fall of 2021. The number of respondents reporting cutting down fruit trees and multi-year crops is down from 33% reported in the 2022 summer survey.

According to AFBF, a survey respondent in Sutter County, California, commented: Also, due to lack of water, there are significantly fewer acres of rice grown in our area. ”

Tillage and crop removal numbers are down, but this may be because farmers already removed these crops earlier this year.

Yield affects more than the crop planted

AFBF cites apiaries and bees as one of the effects of reduced crop yields. Reductions in water and plant production are closely associated with reduced pollination activity and honey yields.

A farmer in Shasta County, California, wrote: We carry water everywhere. Not harvesting honey will cost you up to over $100,000 this year alone. ”

Another concern for farmers in certain areas is declining soil health and long-term productivity.A farmer in Cheyenne County, Colorado, said, “Soil moisture continues to deplete, but there is no appreciable recharge. increase”

California, by contrast, has recently been flooded with rainfall following survey data collection. Floods delayed harvests and damaged crops. in the Salinas Valleywhere more than half of the country’s lettuce and leafy greens are grown, rain has delayed land preparation and planting procedures. Yes, we are already facing volatile food prices.

Livestock production affected by drought

Eighty-nine percent of survey respondents reported that regional feed cost increases were common or greater, down just one percentage point from their summer 2022 results. Herd decline was 33% in the study area, down 3% from previous results.of Maximum herd reduction The rest are in Texas (46%), followed by Nevada (45%) and Arkansas (35%).

Feed prices and poor quality feed can affect livestock performance as well as reduce operating income. A rancher in Duchene County, Utah, responded: Further reductions are likely to be required as La Niña is projected to continue for at least six more months, resulting in another bright or dry winter. Calf weight has decreased from his mid 500 lbs. Calves grow from mid 400 to 400 pounds by mid-October each year. In 2021 and he in 2022 he will have a calf in mid-October. This means that calves lost about 10-15% of their weight due to the drought. ”

Common Land Rancher The West has also been hit hard. Of those respondents, 42% reported that the use of public lands was undermined (down 57% from summer 2022), and 71% reported moving animals from pastures due to insufficient forage. I’m here.

In the summer of 2022, 67% of respondents reported reducing herd size in 2021. And more than half he will shrink further in 2022. Stocks of livestock have run low across the West, a region that supports more than 70% of domestic beef production by value. reduce supply push up consumer prices.

Reduction of surface water is widespread

More than 60% of respondents continue to report that their use of groundwater resources is increasing. However, many farmers find that due to regulations or local salinity, the cost of drilling new wells is limited or impossible. Respondent reports that the cost of drilling wells is over 100% for him.

A farmer from Pinal County, Arizona, said: This year’s water portion brought him over $19,000. Also, digging wells in bodies of water is not permitted. The district is drilling some wells to add to the surface water, but the wells are too far away for the water to reach our farms. ”