As Alabama's first-ever Final Four game approaches on Saturday night, the shock and surprise of just arriving in Phoenix is beginning to fade for now, and the focus is shifting to whether Alabama actually has a chance to advance to Monday's national championship game.
There's no denying it: Connecticut is an absolute powerhouse. The national champion Huskies have outscored opponents by an average of more than 27 points in tournament games and dominated every team that stood in their way en route to back-to-back Final Four appearances.
They have a 35-3 record this season.
As of Friday, UConn holds an 11.5-point advantage over the Tide, the fourth-largest point differential in Final Four history.
They boast the No. 1 coordinated offense in the nation. From KenPom And they have been just as impressive defensively, with the No. 4 adjusted defense. The Huskies have looked as if they were defending for their lives and have simply taken opposing teams' minds off the ball during this winning streak.
They have a 7'2″ hulking Donovan Clingan who will not only be a nightmare to guard, but will also protect the rim with unwavering determination, forcing opposing teams to take poor shots if they can't get past him.
Perhaps that dominance was most evident in the first half of the Elite Eight game when Illinois struggled against the Huskies, but then late in the first half and early in the second, Connecticut went on an absolutely incredible, unprecedented 30-0 run to take the game to a commanding victory.
Considering all of this, how could anyone even think that Alabama has a chance to win against UConn?
Let's start with UConn's last loss at Creighton on Feb. 20, when the Huskies lost by 19 points. This is an extreme example.
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The Blue Jays played crazy defense and held Connecticut to under 70 points, but the biggest kicker (and the one Alabama should take note of) was Creighton's shooting from the 3-point line.
They shot 50 percent from three-point range, making 14 of 28 attempts, and used their elite 3-point shooting to slice through Connecticut's suffocating defense.
Connecticut shot just 3-of-16 (18.8%) from the 3-point line in this game, so that was pretty much what the Tide had to rely on to have any chances at all.
UConn has never been an elite 3-point shooting team, the problem is they are a step above elite in almost every other area on the court.
But if Alabama can take 35-40 3-pointers and make at least close to 50% of them, they can at least win the majority of their games and avoid getting beaten by a tough opponent like UConn.
That's more than most people would say.
But to win, they'll at least have to hang in there long enough to land a knockout punch, and the Tide's knockout punch will have to come from the three-point line if they want to beat this beast.
Michael Browner is a senior sports analyst and contributor to Yellow Hammer News. You can follow him on Twitter. translation:
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