As of Tuesday, January 10, the U.S. Drought Monitor declared over 27% of Arizona, including parts of Coconino County, including Flagstaff, to be drought-free. Three months ago, no percentage of states fell into that category.

And while this reading only speaks to short-term conditions, it could be an early predictor of the coming fire season, which is milder than the recent long, very dry season.

There are two main factors that helped Flagstaff emerge from the drought, says National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Brian Klimowski of the Flagstaff station.

“It was a monsoon and a lot of humidity, combined with recent snowfall and rainfall, helped us get out of the local drought conditions,” Krymovsky said.

According to the Flagstaff area climate overview for August 2022, the city recorded about 180% of its normal precipitation for the month, concluding what Klimovsky called a “prominent” monsoon season. rice field. The season started about two weeks earlier than usual.

As of mid-January, Flagstaff’s winter has also brought above-average humidity. The NWS station set a new record for snowfall on Sunday (14.8 inches), beating his previous one-day record of 8.9 inches. More importantly, however, a series of winter storms pushed the region’s snow cover significantly higher than the median.

“A lot of the western Mogollon Rim and northern Arizona highlands are currently seeing well over 200% of their normal snowfall,” says Klimowski.

As of Tuesday, the National Center for Water and Climatology reported snow cover on San Francisco Peak equivalent to 16.7 inches of precipitation. The median peak measurement for the area is 16.8 inches, and it usually takes him until March 19th for the snowpack to reach its peak level.

“We can certainly say that the snow cover this winter has been very beneficial,” says Klimowski. “The fact that water is trapped in snow is very important, as it slowly dissolves into the soil, giving forests, streams and reservoirs a very beneficial response.”

He added that the forecast for a slow thaw means that while water levels in northern Arizona are rising, flooding is not a major concern.

“Probably a more cautious fusion,” Klimowski said. “It won’t be catastrophic.”

River flows have been rising since the beginning of the year, according to U.S. Geological Survey measurements at Newman Canyon, a channel that feeds Lake Mary, a local reservoir in Flagstaff. Readings were well below 1 cubic foot per second for most of December, but peaked at 155 cubic feet per second on January 3rd.

It is not yet known how this latest snow level will affect this stream, but at about the same time last year, flow in these streams dropped below 2 cubic feet per second.

Nonetheless, when Flagstaff hits peak snow cover, earlier is not always better, Klimowski said.

“We want that peak to be as late in the season as possible,” he explained. “Because the later that peak is, the more moisture will be available and the fire season will be delayed.”

“The only question is, ‘Will the humidity continue to delay the start of the fire season?'” he added. “And now it’s starting to look favorable that it might happen.”

That’s certainly the hope of Matt McGrath, district ranger for the Flagstaff area of ​​the Coconino National Forest.

“We didn’t even have a fire limit that year,” McGrath said. “It was a little wet in the spring, so there were no restrictions with late snow and spring rains.”

A warm and dry January in 2022 led to tunnel fires in mid-April (the worst fires in the region’s history), contributing to an early fire season. McGrath said it was a more “normal” fire season.

“Hopefully that’s where the trend is going now,” he added. “It’s a little early to say.”

But in the long run, it will take more than one good season to truly restore forest health after decades of drought that plagued all of northern and western Arizona.

To explain the extreme aridity of the region, McGrath pointed to the massive die-off of pinion juniper observable just northeast of Flagstaff. At first, many thought it was some kind of beetle infestation that killed these trees.

“It wasn’t,” says McGrath. “It was just a drought. Trees used to relatively dry conditions. It was too extremely dry.”

Drought may be free for Flagstaff in early 2023, but the U.S. Drought Monitor reports that only about 14% of the western United States has experienced no drought. That percentage has risen significantly, up from about 4% a year ago, and still about 26% in the West are ‘extraordinarily dry’, 26% are ‘moderately drought’, and 25% are 9% for “severe drought” and “extreme or exceptional” drought.

“It will take years of normal or above-normal precipitation to return to that balance,” McGrath said.

If you want proof that drought is still ruling the West, look no further than the primary reservoirs of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. It was 22.6% of capacity. Lake Mead was 184 feet below the full water pool.

“They are still down significantly,” said Krymovsky. “That would indicate a prolonged drought.”