Washington —

When asked if she planned to vote this year, the young woman from northern Michigan sighed briefly before explaining her reasons for hesitation.

“If I choose a side … if that happens and it blows up, it's on me,” she said, adding that she knows her emotions feel exaggerated but she's “just scared of making the wrong decision.”

“One could ruin my life and the other could ruin my life,” she said of the two presidential candidates. “I have to choose between the cost of living and my rights as a woman.”

She worries that Vice President Kamala Harris could accelerate inflation, already undermining her financial security, and that former President Trump could strip away abortion rights and threaten her health insurance.

“I know it's not black and white,” she said, “but I'm just seeing it that way now.”

The comments from Wednesday night's focus group were ones I've “heard many times” during this election cycle, said John Della Volpe, the pollster who moderated the group.

Core dynamics for 2024

The remarks highlighted a central dynamic that has kept the presidential election so bitterly close.

Harris has made great strides since becoming the Democratic nominee this summer. This week we made some progress In her aftermath September 10th Trump Debate.

But she has yet to win over significant numbers of young voters and voters of color. Several polls show she is leading with those groups, but not by as much as Democrats would like. She is doing very well among white college graduates, who also sided heavily with Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. But without stronger support from other groups, she has been unable to break out of a near stalemate with Trump nationally and in key battleground states.

The focus groups revealed how much the softening support is linked to widespread economic anxiety born out of a recent surge in inflation that appears particularly severe among many younger voters.

Della Volpe is The nation's leading expert on young votersThis week, the group convened four groups from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin: one group each of white men, white women, men of color and women of color.

The session was part of a project called “FutureVoice,” which aims to increase social participation among people in their 20s.

Future Voices is using the sessions to test ideas for nonpartisan ads about electoral participation to air on streaming platforms and social media, said Sarina Tracey, a spokeswoman for the project. I was able to watch all four sessions on the condition that the participants' names not be used.

These voters were chosen to represent what Della Volpe calls “neutrals” — roughly half of voters under the age of 30 who can vote but aren't deeply involved or committed to the political process.

Because young people are not fully engaged; The majority of voters have deep roots Their voting choice doesn't matter, but they represent voters that Harris could potentially mobilize, and if they decide to support her, it could give her a more solid lead over Trump.

Serious economic uncertainty

Economic worries are a recurring theme in opinion polls. Two-thirds of Pennsylvania's votersFor example, a recent Washington Post poll of New Jersey voters found that the economy is only “fair” or “poor,” in a state many see as the most likely to swing the election. Polls show that voters without college degrees are especially likely to have a negative view of the economy.

Non-economic issues came up occasionally in the focus groups — a few people mentioned the war in Gaza, some talked about climate change — but worries about pocketbooks were a recurring and persistent theme.

When Della Volpe was asked what word came to mind when he mentioned the economy, he fired off a stream of angry answers: “collapse,” “failure,” “inequality,” “decline.”

Young people spoke about the difficulty of paying bills, finding decent-paying jobs and especially paying for housing.

“The so-called American Dream has changed,” said one white man in the group who lives in suburban Detroit and works in human resources. “Buying a home is still out of reach for many.”

“We're just surviving each day,” said the Michigan voter and black business student at Wayne State University. “For us, hope comes in little packets.”

These pessimistic assessments are at odds to some extent with economic data. Economists have noted the speed of the country's recovery from the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the large number of new jobs created, and the rapid economic recovery. Historically low unemployment and, Wage increases are outpacing price increases For most workers over the past year.

For other groups of voters, the disconnect between economic data and voter opinion can be easily explained along partisan lines. For example, a Washington Post poll found that 60% of voters said the country's economy is doing well, but 66% rated the country's situation as fair or poor. Those who have positive views of the state of their own country but negative views of the state of the country are more likely to support Trump, the poll found.

However, the young people in the focus groups were not strongly partisan, and their economic views were clearly consistent with how they viewed their own lives, which reflected a deep-seated pessimism about the present and the future.

“I'm not hopeless about the future, but I am scared about it,” said one participant in the group, a white man who lives in central Pennsylvania and works at an amusement park, a sentiment that seemed widely shared across all four sessions.

“Compared to a lot of other countries, we're pretty fortunate,” said the Latino, who recently returned to Michigan after serving overseas with the Army National Guard, “but there's always a sense of doom, impending doom.”

Several factors make the current economy particularly precarious for young people.

Memories of the Great Depression

Americans under the age of 30 have never experienced this. Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, suggested earlier this year that older people who have experienced rising prices may be less worried, but those who have lived through previous waves of inflation may be less worried.

Young people are, on average, less financially secure to begin with and therefore more vulnerable to price shocks.

The rapid rise in housing costs in recent years has affected younger people more than older people who already own their homes.

Finally, as some focus group participants suggested, the life experiences of people in their 20s may also make them unusually sensitive to financial insecurity.

When asked about their earliest memory related to government or politics, several cited the Great Recession of 2008-2009.

That memory “brings a little bit of fear into everything that's going on now with inflation,” said one focus group participant, a student at Temple University in Philadelphia who remembers how the financial crisis rocked his community.

“I know it's scary,” he said.

“It feels like a ghost is hovering over us right now,” said another attendee, a recent college graduate who works as a part-time bartender in Pittsburgh, recalling how his mother lost her job during the recession.

“It was a huge shock to all of us,” he said. “I don't want to use the word 'trauma,' but we just remember it.”

Voters are inclined to blame Biden, and by extension Harris, for the surge in inflation during Biden's term in office.

These voters also tend to be skeptical about politicians' ability to actually deliver on their promises.

“Our generation wants change, but we don't know how to get there,” said one focus group member, a Latina woman from Wisconsin.

Della Volpe said getting past that and convincing undecided voters that Harris has a plan to improve the economy may be the final hurdle her campaign must overcome.

But focus groups and polls suggest she has a path to winning over supporters.

“I don't think a lot of them actually want to vote for Trump,” Della Volpe said of neutral voters. For many younger voters and voters of color who are considering Trump, “it's like a deal with the devil. They think it's good for their personal survival.”

So far, Harris has presented herself well to voters. The percentage of people who view her favorably has increased significantlyA majority of people now see her as someone who “cares about the needs and problems of people like you”, according to the latest YouGov poll for The Economist.

And in the aftermath of the debate, she persuaded the majority, He has the intellect and temperament to be president..

“She had to overcome all three of these hurdles to have a conversation with voters about her vision and the economy,” Della Volpe said.

“The question is, how effective will she be in this next chapter?”

That's the biggest question for the next six and a half weeks, and the answer will determine whether Harris pulls off a decisive victory or whether the game is forced into a tense draw until the very end.

What else to read

This week's pollThere have been a ton of high-quality surveys this week as pollsters have tried to predict the outcome of the September 10 debate. Here are some of the most notable: The New York Times/Siena College (National and Pennsylvania) YouGov/The Economist (Nationwide), AP/NORC (Nationwide), The Washington Post (Pennsylvania) Suffolk University (Pennsylvania) Quinnipiac University (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) Marist College/NPR (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan).

LA Times Feature: Republican civil war erupts deep in Texas

Saturday Must Read: this CNN poll of Republican candidate Mark Robinson This could have a major impact on the North Carolina gubernatorial election.

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