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‘Harsh Realities’: MSNBC Data Guru Lays Out Daunting Delegate Math For Haley

MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki said Tuesday that former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is facing a “harsh reality” about delegates in the Super Tuesday primary.

Former President Donald Trump currently leads in delegates with 273 delegates, compared to Haley's 43. according to To the Associated Press. Kornacki said Haley could do well in several of the 15 states with Republican presidents. primary election On Tuesday, other states with larger delegate totals may fall short. (Related article: President Trump makes serious remarks, tells Laura Ingraham he's “not going to laugh” because the country is “destroying”)

“If Nikki Haley were to make a fuss tonight, where would she go? Where would she look? So, actually as the first poll ends, here are some very friendly and There are two states that could be,” Kornacki told MSNBC host Chris Jansing. “One is Vermont, which is actually basically a winner-take-all state. If you win a majority of votes in Vermont, you get all 17 delegates. It wasn't a good state for Donald Trump in the Republican primary. Here's a look at the results: In Vermont, Trump received just 32.5% of the vote, narrowly beating out John Kasich. This was in 2016. It was one of President Trump's worst performances in 2019.If you're a non-registered party in Vermont, an independent, a Democrat, and you think you're one of them, you can vote in this Republican primary. You could be a target for Haley.”

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“Also, we're closing at 7 tonight, but look at Virginia. If you look at the 2016 results in Virginia again, Trump won this state, but what we saw in other states. “In comparison, Donald Trump's performance was overwhelming,” Kornacki continued. “A particularly problematic area for Donald Trump in Virginia would be the densely populated Washington, D.C., suburbs of Northern Virginia. There are three delegates in the Northern Virginia area of ​​Washington, D.C., and there are three districts where Nikki Haley is certain to win and be able to collect delegates tonight.”

So Kornacki turned to areas where Haley would have a harder time winning delegates, such as California and Texas, where the biggest prizes in the Super Tuesday primaries would be. Haley is trailing President Trump by 64 points nationally. according to to the average of RealClearPolling.

“But the problem for her is that even if she's successful, even if she has some success in the states that I outlined, her focus is on California, and this is a closed primary. . There are no independents, there are no Democrats. The winner wins all the primaries, 50% plus one, all the delegates, 169,” Kornacki said. “Can Donald Trump win a simple majority in a closed primary? All evidence suggests he can. Texas, 161 delegates. Again, very conservative electorate, very pro-Trump. The rule that makes this close to a winner, but not completely, is to win all the states, and there are over 300 delegates between these states, and Haley As long as he doesn't cause any problems, Trump will have an overwhelming share of the 300-plus delegates.”

“Just winning the states that Donald Trump outlined here would give him a huge number of delegates, and he could pick up some delegates in Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, Vermont. “It could be, but it's not. Mathematically speaking, Haley could get pretty far,” Kornacki added.

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