Lawmakers think concerns about left-leaning votes being ripped off are wildly misplaced. As he sees it, cinema, which until last month was a Democrat, will crush right-wing votes instead.
“Let’s be clear on one thing. Cinema is not going to split the Democratic vote,” Gallego told POLITICO. If you nominate a candidate, you’re more likely to take votes away from their side.
Gallego’s work on these voter turnovers highlights how erratic and unpredictable Arizona’s Senate election is already. It also reflects the complexity of the campaign he has to run.
as a progressive Registered Democrats Outnumber Republicans and Independents, he risks being squeezed from both sides in the general election between two other candidates. , we don’t even know who the Republican opponents are unless one candidate clears the field. And Cinema itself has yet to reveal whether it will run for re-election or resign.
Gallego’s advisers say they are operating under the assumption that either scenario could occur. But congressmen have wasted no time attacking cinema. At this stage, it’s almost certainly a move aimed at raising money rather than getting voters. helped people who had
Cinema’s party change and filibuster advocacy made her an unpopular figure among liberals across the country. announced that it had raised over $1 million from Race. The key question is whether that enthusiasm will lead to a massive exodus of Arizona Democratic voters away from the Senate.
“Cinema has been a Democrat her entire career,” says Corey Vale, an Arizona-based Republican strategist advising Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb as he considers running for the Senate. “It’s hard to imagine a scenario where she’s running as an independent and doesn’t have a significant amount of support from the Democratic Party.”
With the general election nearly two years away, Gallego’s advisers have begun to map out Gallego’s unconventional path to victory. They believe Gallego, who is about to become Arizona’s first Latino senator, will not only benefit from high turnout in the presidential election, but also generate excitement among Democratic voters.
“Reuben builds on the winning coalition framed by Mark Kelly and Katie Hobbs while improving voter turnout/return rates for Latinos, youth, Native Americans, veterans and working class We can,” said Rebecca Katz, top strategist at Gallego. The Arizona senator and governor who won in what is likely to be a tougher year for Democrats in 2022.
Gallego’s team claims that Gallego can win a significant portion of the independence vote, many of which are Latinos. About 40% of Latinos in Arizona are registered as independents, according to Campaign’s analysis of voter files. And his advisers believe his credibility and experience as a Marine Corps veteran on the House Armed Services Committee will appeal to independent voters.
“When Washington talks about independents, they don’t tend to think of Latinos, but there are actually a lot of Latino independents who feel the Democrats haven’t spoken to them in a long time.” “We can get those voters.”
When it comes to attracting Republican voters, Gallego has vowed to campaign in conservative neighborhoods, and his advisers believe his military career will resonate. But his team also makes the calculation that if a far-right Republican wins the primary and Cinema runs for re-election, he’ll split much of the Republican vote with Cinema.
Cinema’s former aide, John Labombard, said that Arizona “never elected a progressive partisan or a liberal agitator statewide,” but that cinema has never been elected by independents or by some. It proved that the Republican vote could win a competitive race.
“I worry about untested candidates,” he said.
In addition to Lamb, Republican candidates reportedly eyeing the seat include former unsuccessful gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and 2022 Senate candidate Rep. Blake Masters. Juan CiscomaniKarin Taylor-Robson, a businessman who lost to Lake in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary.
On the Democratic side, congressman. Greg Stanton said recently that he has been passing running, which is a boon for Gallego. Another Democratic candidate is Tucson Mayor Regina Romero.
A spokesperson for Cinema declined to comment for this article, pointing to recent statements that senators are not currently focused on campaigning.
Few polls have been conducted on the Arizona Senate election given that it is early in the cycle. but, December poll Cinema was one of the country’s least popular senators, and Republicans (43%) approved her more than Democrats (30%) after she changed party registrations, according to The Morning Consult. 42% of independents approved of her, 43% dissented, and 15% said they were unsure or had no opinion.
Democratic consultant Andy Barr, a veteran of the Arizona campaign, admitted Democrats in battleground states were concerned about the potential for Democratic votes to split between Cinema and Gallego.
“Are people nervous about it? Yes,” he said. “But we live in a nervous state.”
At the same time, Barr, who worked for Gallego in the past but was not involved in the Arizona Senate race, believes Cinema is unlikely to win many votes from Democrats if it runs for the Senate again. .
“I don’t think there are many divisions like Democrats,” he said. “I think the question is how close you can get [Gallego] Can Kirsten’s vote be zero among Democratic voters? Clearly she’s going to get some, but there was some real bitterness towards her before she left [the party], and I think it only got worse. “
Arizona-based Republican strategist Barrett Merson said Gallego’s challenge is still being run as progressive in a conservative state. He campaigned as an independent-minded candidate and was not an exciting liberal, he said.
But the lack of Democratic primaries has required Mr. Gallego to appeal to otherwise progressives, but instead give them time to cultivate rapport with independents and Republicans. may be possible. And Merson acknowledged that Republicans have serious challenges in the Senate race, too.
“Traditionally conservative Republicans who are campaigning for the economy, border security, inflation control, etc. will easily win Senate seats,” he said. “The problem is getting that person across the major finish line. I came.”
