With less than a month left until the Nov. 5 election, challenger Nathan Hockman leads incumbent Los Angeles Township by 30 points. Atty. Georges Gascón in new poll.

If the election were held today, 51% of likely Los Angeles County voters would choose Mr. Hochman and 21% would vote for Mr. Gascón, according to a study by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Government, co-sponsored by the Times. Dew. In other words, 28% remain undecided.

Mr. Hochman has risen in the rankings since August 18, when the previous Times-University of California, Berkeley poll showed the former federal prosecutor winning by a 25 percentage point margin.

“It’s not even close,” said poll director Mark DiCamillo. He said Gascón will need to make a major change in voters’ perceptions in the coming weeks if he is to retain his seat.

“This looks like a losing battle for Hockman now. He’s so far ahead,” DiCamillo said.

“We had a big come-from-behind victory in 2020,” Gascón said in an interview Friday, predicting another come-from-behind victory next month and a “close victory.”

“We feel very bullish about the final outcome,” he said. “When people ask me about polls, I tell them what really matters is the polls on Election Day.”

Although Gascón fell far behind incumbent Jackie Lacey in the 2020 primary, he attracted massive support and outside donations over the summer leading up to his general election victory. And he never faced such dire polls.

Among those who support Mr. Hochman, a former Los Angeles City Ethics Commission chair and assistant U.S. attorney general, 66% say a “very important” factor is the need to “reduce confusion and bring about needed changes in the district attorney’s office.” He said it was sex.

Fifty-five percent of supporters agreed that “efforts to increase police accountability” were a “very important” element for Gascón, a former Los Angeles Police Department deputy chief and two-term San Francisco district attorney.

Forty-three percent of all voters surveyed said their overall opinion of Mr. Hochman was “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable,” but only 43% said they had a similar opinion of the incumbent. was only 23%. About half of those surveyed had a negative view of Gascón, similar to polls from earlier this year in the crowded primary.

Even though voting day is rapidly approaching, many voters are still unsure about their options. Forty-nine percent of those surveyed said they had no opinion about Hochman, and 26% said the same about Gascón.

Still, the percentage of undecided voters has declined by 7% since the August survey. And the vast majority of voters who have chosen a candidate since then “will mostly go to Hockman,” DiCamillo said.

The candidates are scheduled to debate on a live broadcast co-hosted by The Times and KNX starting Tuesday at 5 p.m., and will be asked questions about key issues in the campaign.

In a statement to the Times, Hochman said the poll numbers are “consistent with what we’ve heard from voters across Los Angeles County over the past year.”

“People don’t feel as safe as they did before Georges Gascón took office, and they want a prosecutor’s office that will prosecute crimes, restore balance and improve public safety,” he said. .

The new poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, was conducted online in English and Spanish from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 and asked 908 likely county voters, “What do you think about crime and public safety in Los Angeles County?” What do you think about the threat?” he asked. ” 94% of respondents said these concerns were a “major problem” or a “somewhat problem,” but only 5% said they were “not a problem,” and 1% were undecided.

This is bad news for Gascón and reflects “voter recognition” that crime is a big problem in Los Angeles County, DiCamillo said. “And they don’t acknowledge that Gascón did much about it,” he said.

Los Angeles County saw an approximately 8% increase in violent crimes and a 14% increase in property crimes from 2019 to 2023, according to data from the California Department of Justice. As Gascón pointed out during his campaign, police data shows that some violent crimes have been on the decline in Los Angeles this year.

Gascón has repeatedly noted that jurisdictions with more traditional prosecutors, such as Orange and Sacramento counties, have seen even greater spikes in violent crimes during the same period.

However, none of these resonate with voters.

“Voters don’t know the data,” said Roy Baer, ​​a political consultant for several Democratic campaigns across California. “What they know is anecdotes. And over the past four years, a plethora of televised anecdotes about store break-ins and other acts of violence have created a perception that crime is out of control.”

Gascón acknowledged that he gets “frustrated” when people blame him for “things that are out of my control,” such as police not making arrests in high-profile cases or the actions of the city attorney.

“How is it possible that the mansion is destroyed because of me?” [Bel Air] Was it vandalized? he asked, referring to cases in Los Angeles, which has its own prosecutor’s office that handles most minor crimes.

More than 60% of voters surveyed said the crime categories they targeted were “violent crimes that can result in serious injury or death,” “robbery and robbery on the street or while traveling,” and “snatching and snatching from retail stores.” ”. I’m worried.

Mr. Hochman has obtained viral videos of incidents such as robberies and break-ins into the mayor’s mansion, often linking highly visible crimes to the “lawless” atmosphere he claims Mr. Gascón has created. are.

Hochman’s campaign won’t necessarily connect specific incidents to policy decisions made by the incumbent, but that may not matter to those heading to the polls. Attitudes toward crime appear to be changing more broadly, as reflected in polls showing overwhelming support for Proposition 36, which would impose harsher penalties for crimes involving retail theft and fentanyl.

According to recent polls, 59% of Los Angeles County voters support the measure, which effectively replaces Prop. 47, the landmark criminal justice reform bill co-authored by Gascón.

In this political climate, Behr said Gascón’s bid for re-election is like “running up a cliff.”

“Even if no polling was done on the state legislative race, the numbers on Prop. 36 in Los Angeles County would be the same for this election,” said Dan Schnur, a former adviser to Republican politicians and a professor of political communication. “This will be very solid evidence of the course of the war.” at the University of Southern California. “It’s almost impossible to imagine a candidate like Gascon winning in a county that is being overtaken.” [Proposition] 36th place is a huge difference. ”

Mr DiCamillo warned people not to cancel the contest at this stage, despite the polls appearing to overwhelmingly favor Mr Hochman.

“It’s not over yet,” DiCamillo said. “It will continue to happen.”

But Mr. Schnurr intended to appoint Mr. Hochman to be LA’s next district attorney.

“If the Gascon repeal this, our great-grandchildren will read about it in their history books,” he said.