WASHINGTON – National headlines this weekend will focus on Phoenix, where temperatures could reach 115 degrees Celsius, but a greater heat threat lies in border counties, according to a new report. , and possibly in other states.

A Census Bureau analysis of factors contributing to the social vulnerability of communities to disasters found that 13 states and the District of Columbia had more per capita risk factors for heat-related harm than Arizona. shown.

A report by researchers from the Census Bureau and Arizona State University found that within the state, Santa Cruz counties on the southern border, Gila, Apache and Navajo counties in the northeast, and Yuma in the northeast. The counties are La Paz County and Mojave County. western border.

report It relies on new interpretations of the Census Bureau’s Regional Resilience Estimates, which measure everything from income to housing, to predict vulnerability to disasters, including pandemics, hurricanes, and now extreme heat.

Census Bureau analyst Chase Sawyer, a co-author of the report, said it’s not surprising that Arizona ranks lower on the list than other states, but if the report were to measure exposure and temperature He said it would rank higher if measured.

“All we really measure is people and the households they live in,” Sawyer said Friday. “We haven’t yet addressed heat exposure or the potential for thermal events to occur. In fact, that’s one of the main points we want to continue to refine and improve.”

The community resilience estimate used for heat reports was developed during the pandemic to measure the impact of COVID-19 on communities, but has since been used to assess the effects of natural and other human-induced disasters. Extended to be applicable.

The original CRE considered 10 factors, including income, employment, access to healthcare, household size, and communication barriers. Heat’s CRE looked at the same factors, but modified them to consider housing quality, type of commute, and whether household spending is more than 50% of income.

This provides a nationwide county-by-county breakdown of heat-related vulnerable communities.

Patricia Solis is executive director of ASU’s Knowledge Exchange for Resilience and assisted with the Census report. The report aims to identify areas with the lowest tolerance for heat so that aid can be distributed more effectively, she said.

Solis said staying cool is more difficult in economically distressed areas, often in rural areas. She said people who don’t have air conditioning or the money to use it are very vulnerable during the heat wave.

“In the event of a disaster, you need shelter first, right?” Soryth said. “But in the heat, what do you do? Go home and turn on the air conditioner. If you can do it.”

Apache County has the highest proportion of residents with three or more risk factors in the state, at 55%, more than double the proportion of high-risk residents in Maricopa County.

Emergency management authorities in Apache County and most other high-risk counties in the state did not immediately respond to requests for comment. But officials in Santa Cruz County, where just under 33% of residents have three or more risk factors, said the county is doing just fine when it comes to managing heat-related emergencies.

“We are well equipped to handle the heat wave,” said Soveira Castro, county emergency management director. She believes that only certain people in the county are particularly at risk, including cross-border immigrants and some retirees.

“Many of the people who come to live here are retirees from previous jobs in California or elsewhere on the East Coast,” Castro said. “They come here and retire here, but they’re not used to the weather.”

Castro is confident there are “sufficient resources available within the county” to support the community, but worries about thunderstorms that could lead to power outages heading into the unusually hot weekend. said there is.

“If the electricity goes off, the air conditioner will not work,” she said. “We are making sure all generators are backed up.”

Maricopa County is adding cooling and hydration stations, as well as rest areas throughout the valley, but preparations for this year’s scorching heat are daunting, said Cleo Warner, a planning welfare service for the Maricopa County Government Association. A particular focus is on the homeless population.

“Sleeping outdoors becomes a very dangerous practice when temperatures hit 110 degrees, especially for unsheltered citizens who find it very difficult to sleep,” Warner said.

Warner said heat relief efforts in Maricopa County are driven primarily by volunteers. She believes rural counties are trying to follow suit, but they face challenges that urban areas do not.

“Just from talking to rural communities trying to figure out how to set up their own heat mitigation networks, I understand there are very different barriers for them, especially the spacing of everything,” she said. Told. Resources are generally less frequent. ”

Solis said her concerns about surviving a heat wave in Arizona were what prompted her to contact the Census Bureau in the first place. The CRE for Heat report yields findings that can be used to take action, she said.

“Nationally, there’s been a lot of talk about this…because the heat is affecting not just Arizona but other places,” Solis said of the heatwave hitting much of the country this week. rice field.

But unlike hurricanes and blizzards, heat is not recognized as a hazard by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Solis said. So even though Arizona “has more deaths than all other weather-related deaths combined,” states cannot receive disaster funding for heat.

In 2022, 425 people Maricopa County alone died from heat-related complications.

“Looking out, it looks like a nice sunny day,” Solis said. “It doesn’t look like a disaster, it doesn’t behave the same. It’s silent and invisible.”

While Sawyer said the Census wants more CRE reporting, Solis hopes that at the state level Arizona will be able to focus on housing and heat issues. Her challenges, she says, go hand in hand.

“If there is no major threat looming over us at the moment, we need to stop and remember and take time to work on upstream solutions,” Solis said.