California Governor Gavin Newsom might be setting the stage for Democrats to derail their strategy against Texas’s recent redistricting, thus allowing Republicans to implement more favorable congressional maps nationwide.
The new congressional map for California, designed by a Democratic-majority Congress, aims to capture five Republican-held districts while reinforcing less secure Democratic ones.
Newsom called for a mid-cycle redistricting in response to changes made by Texas’s Republican-led legislature, which swapped five Democratic seats for Republican ones.
“We expect these maps to effectively neutralize what’s happening in Texas,” Newsom stated to reporters, announcing a special election in November where Californians will vote on this Gerrymander Map.
By adopting this counter approach, Newsom seeks to minimize political fallout, even as both Republican and Democratic states engage in drawing lines that benefit their election prospects.
Republican strategist and host of “10 Minute Drill,” Matt Whitlock, cautioned that a more aggressive approach to gerrymandering may not favor Democrats. “This isn’t an arms race that Democrats can win,” he remarked.
Whitlock further explained that Democrats have already gerrymandered their states extensively, so escalating this effort may actually aid Republicans. He suggested that Newsom’s focus is on his own presidential aspirations rather than broader implications for his party.
Currently, under the revised California map, Democrats control 48 of the 52 House seats, leaving only four for Republicans—about 8% of the delegation. In contrast, the Texas map would give Republicans 30 seats and Democrats just eight, resulting in about 21% of representatives from that party.
Sean Trende, an election analyst at RealClearPolitics, noted that Republicans are maximizing their gains through national efforts.
“Democrats are already at a disadvantage. States like Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Massachusetts show significant gerrymandering on their part,” he commented, adding that Republicans also have strategies to intensify their own gerrymandering.
Logan Dobson from Target’s Victory acknowledged that while Democrats traditionally excel in redistricting, the current battle might favor Republicans. “The reality is that Democrats have fewer avenues for retaliatory gerrymandering since their strongholds are already gerrymandered,” he stated.
Ohio is expected to quickly gain from the lifting of restrictions on gerrymandering. This year, Ohio leaders are required to redraw the state’s 15 congressional districts, setting up a contentious environment leading up to the 2026 mid-term elections.
Chris Cillizza highlighted both Ohio and Florida as regions where Republicans could advance their redistricting objectives. “The reality is that bigger states are increasingly under Republican control, making reintroduction more likely,” he said, noting that Florida is also considering its own redistricting plans.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has expressed support for a new census initiative that would selectively exclude certain populations when determining congressional representation, claiming it could yield three additional seats for Republicans.
The census data from 2022 and 2020 indicated population discrepancies, with Texas notably under-represented by over half a million people, which could cost the state significant federal funding and congressional seats.
Critics argue that Newsom’s move to override redistricting committees underscores a deeper hypocrisy among left-leaning states, which often have no Republican representation. Meanwhile, Texas’s maps reflect more population diversity.
The results of the redistricting battles in Texas and California may extend to other states like Missouri, New York, Illinois, and Indiana. Recently, four Republican lawmakers in California filed an emergency petition to halt the redistricting process, alleging it to be unconstitutional. However, the state Supreme Court denied this petition, allowing redistricting efforts to advance.
Even if California’s legislature successfully passes a new map, it remains uncertain because the process requires voter approval for implementation. Unlike in Texas, California voters must actively endorse new maps through initiatives.
California’s independent Citizens’ Redistricting Commission was created in 2008 to manage district boundaries and to lessen partisan control. Despite this, recent polling indicates that 61% of California Democrats oppose Newsom’s push to dismantle this independent body and grant more control back to lawmakers.
