Shifting Perspectives on the National Popular Vote Compact

It wasn’t long ago that the National Popular Voting Interstate Compact (NPV) seemed like a strong contender to replace the electoral college. The compact had gained traction in many blue states, made progress in some purple areas, and even caught the interest of a few red states. There was a palpable sense of momentum, illustrated by a headline asking if the electoral college was coming to an end. Many thought the answer was quite possibly “yes.”

However, things appear to be shifting. For the first time since the launch of the NPV initiative, there’s talk of potentially abandoning the compact instead of pushing it further in this year’s legislative sessions.

The NPV alters state laws so that presidential electors are chosen based on the overall national vote rather than individual state results. The compact becomes operational if enough states collectively represent at least 270 electoral votes. To date, 17 states plus D.C. have pledged 209 electoral votes to this initiative.

Yet, it’s worth noting that only two of these states have been reliably involved since 2019, and even then, with some reluctance. In Maine, the measure barely passed, largely due to the absence of several lawmakers opposed to it. Minnesota opted to include the NPV within a broader “music pass” bill, likely to bolster its chances of approval.

Strong bipartisan resistance hindered progress in Virginia and Michigan, where Democratic members joined Republicans in opposing the NPV. Nevada saw attempts to push forward as a proposed constitutional amendment in 2023, but even here, the momentum seemed to wane. Lobbyists for the NPV seemed uninterested in showing up at voting sessions, and discussions dwindled.

This year, the Democrat-controlled House in Maine voted to withdraw from the compact, although the repealing effort failed by just one vote in the Senate. Similarly, Colorado and Rhode Island also considered repeals, while no state has recently held discussions about joining the compact.

Several reasons could explain the NPV’s struggles. Initially, many lawmakers viewed resolutions against the electoral college as mere expressions of opinion rather than concrete policies. As the compact gained electors, the details began to draw legislative scrutiny. Lawmakers were quickly deterred by the lack of mechanisms for recounting elections and the absence of a unified national vote total.

Interestingly, support for the NPV among Republican lawmakers has diminished significantly. Furthermore, in light of the controversies from the 2020 election, some Democrats have grown cautious of a compact that could require them to accept potentially flawed vote counts from other states.

The NPV’s aim to reduce the influence of politically balanced swing states hasn’t been particularly attractive to lawmakers from those regions either. States like Arizona, Georgia, and New Jersey have seen their political margins widen and are beginning to appreciate their evolving political landscapes.

Looking ahead, without any states retracting from the compact, the road towards its implementation seems challenging, especially before the 2030 census. Current predictions indicate that member states may lose over eight electoral votes, making the 270 goal seem increasingly unattainable.

However, it would be unwise to underestimate the compact’s proponents. They still possess a catchy slogan and substantial funding aimed at lobbying efforts across the nation. A decade ago, there were concerns about whether the NPV could be halted; now, it’s the supporters questioning if they can still reach what looks to be an unprecedented goal.