The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has garnered international attention over the past year, but the center of gravity of the conflict has rapidly shifted to Hezbollah and Iran in recent weeks.

Iran launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory, most but not all of them intercepted, in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Tehran and Hezbollah in recent weeks and months. With the war against Hamas in Gaza all but over, Israel’s main focus is now on Iran and Hezbollah, two much larger adversaries that threaten to plunge the already turbulent Middle East region into further chaos. It’s about fighting, a national security expert told The Daily Caller News. Foundation. (Related: Blinken rushes to oust Biden administration, boasts that US is in ‘much stronger geopolitical position’ even as world burns)

“Hamas remains a vestige of its former self. Israel will continue to try to eradicate them, but it’s a kind of guerrilla operation. Hamas is starving and up in smoke. At the moment, more than literally I think we’re going to see Hamas go somewhat underground, figuratively,” national security expert and former State Department official Gabriel Noronha told DCNF.

Iran’s attack is one of the latest developments in the ongoing regional conflict, but it will certainly not be the last. Israel is still respond But military spokesman Daniel Hagari promised on Tuesday that there would be “consequences” for Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin told the Security Cabinet, “Iran has made a huge mistake and will definitely pay the price.” meeting on tuesday.

It is not clear what route Israel will choose to retaliate, but ahead of the missile salvo, Israel reportedly warned Tehran on Monday that it would attack if Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities were attacked. It is said that he did. Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, told DCNF that he did not expect Israel to attack nuclear or oil facilities, but that other key infrastructure such as military and logistics facilities would be targeted. Ta.

Melamed said Israel could also adopt a “non-kinetic” approach against Iran.

“This is my estimate of the nature of the expected Israeli response,” Melamed told DCNF, noting that the timing of such a response is likely to be sooner rather than later.

US military facilities located in the area helped defend Israel during Tuesday’s attack on Iran. U.S. officials have so far declined to comment on Israel’s next actions, but have similarly warned of “consequences.”

While the United States is unlikely to participate in a joint attack against Iran, officials have vowed to provide more defense to Israel if necessary, and Melamed told DCNF that Israel’s response would at least be He said there is a high possibility that they are coordinating with others. .

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (left) and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas (left) during a briefing on Hurricane Helen response and recovery efforts in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 1, 2024. U.S. President Joe Biden speaks alongside (right). . (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Israel also faces challenges with Hezbollah, Iran’s largest and most effective terrorist proxy network. Hezbollah began firing on Israel in October last year across the Lebanese border in support of what was then Hamas’s invasion of Israel, resulting in around 1,200 people being killed and sparking a broader regional war. Got it. (Related article: ‘I don’t trust anyone anymore’: Iranian officials reportedly in paranoia after Hezbollah leader assassination)

“It’s clear that Israel is determined to remove Hezbollah from Lebanon,” Simone Ledeen, a senior fellow at the Strauss Center and a former Pentagon official, told DCNF. “Do the Israelis need to capture every single Hezbollah fighter? No, of course not. They need Hezbollah to lay down their arms and surrender…Israelis [are] I really focused on achieving that goal. ”

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has rapidly escalated in recent weeks. Israel has carried out extensive airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, and in September it remotely detonated thousands of the terrorist group’s personal communication devices, setting off explosions across the country.

Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut on Friday, wreaking havoc on the group and raising alarm in Iran. Israeli forces are currently conducting a series of ground air strikes across Lebanon’s southern border, which could be a precursor to a larger ground invasion.

The Israeli military on Thursday ordered further evacuations of towns and villages across southern Lebanon. According to Writing in the Times of Israel, he further raises questions about whether a ground invasion is imminent.

“From all the reports I’m seeing, the next step is to launch a ground invasion and eliminate as many Hezbollah operatives as possible,” Noronha told DCNF. “Hezbollah will fight back hard and the situation will get pretty ugly, but it’s not entirely clear what will happen next.”

Smoke billows after an Israeli airstrike targeted the village of Qiam in southern Lebanon, near the northern border with Israel, on September 30, 2024. (Photo by RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images)

As it stands, Israel is essentially locked in a multi-sided conflict with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Iranian-backed terrorist groups scattered throughout the Middle East. Perhaps the least threatening force at the moment is Hamas, which has been radically weakened since last year. According to the latest figures, Israeli forces have killed around 18,000 Hamas fighters since last year. estimateThis is about half the number the group started with when it invaded Israel in late 2023.

Several Hamas leaders have also been killed or assassinated since last year. The group’s chief leader, Yahya Sinwar, hides from Israeli forces in underground tunnels in Gaza that Hamas often uses for operations. However, many parts of these tunnels were destroyed by the Israeli military.

“They will probably be a force of resistance for a long time to being labeled as an Israeli occupation of Gaza,” Noronha told DCNF. “But it won’t be a war. It will be a rebellion.”

Although the Israeli military has ended some operations in Gaza, the prospects for a full ceasefire with Hamas anytime soon remain low. Questions remain about Gaza, including who will rebuild and govern the area once the war ends, but experts say the conversation is shifting to Iran, Hezbollah and other Western adversaries, especially in light of recent developments. told DCNF. (Related: Biden’s pledge not to send additional troops to the Middle East didn’t last a day)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at United Nations Headquarters in New York City, September 27, 2024. (Photo by Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

“We are now seeing a change,” Melamed told DCNF, pointing to Tuesday’s Iranian attack on Israel and the risk of further conflict between Israel and Iran. “These impacts are much greater than the impact of the Israel-Hamas narrative. After all, they are all part of the same story. But the impact of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict, the Israeli-Iranian conflict, It’s much bigger than the comparison with Hamas.”

Regarding the US role in the current situation, the Biden-Harris administration has been working for several months to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and more recently between Israel and Hezbollah. Those efforts largely failed. Biden and Harris officials have often urged Israel to refrain from military action and instead sought diplomatic avenues to resolve multiple conflicts, but the United States continues to provide defense assets to Israel. has not spoken out about the possibility of Israel responding to Iran.

The Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy on Iran and the Middle East more broadly has been criticized by some as misguided or incompetent. Iran has raked in hundreds of billions of dollars in oil revenue from the Biden-Harris administration’s sanctions relief in recent years, and billions more in sanctions waivers. Iran uses its funds to support various terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

Regarding Hezbollah, Ledeen told DCNF that the Biden-Harris administration should support Israel’s efforts to defeat the terrorist organization, but he does not have high expectations that it will do so.

“What should we do? We should express our full support to Israel and provide everything Israel has asked for to achieve complete victory in this war,” Ledeen told DCNF. . “What do we do? Nothing, almost nothing.”

“They’re not going to do anything, they’re not going to provide any real assistance,” Redeen said.

The Israel Defense Forces and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.

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