More than 217,000 people have died in the Bay Area in the past three years, according to the Bay Area, and the region’s population has slumped to levels not seen since 2014. Report from real estate agent compass Analyzing newly released numbers From the California Department of Treasury.
The roughly 2.1% decline outpaces California’s 1.3% population decline from July 2019 to July 2022.
San Francisco leads the 11 Bay Area counties, dropping 4.4% over the three-year period and losing 38,000 residents. The city was followed by San Mateo and Marin counties, which decreased 3.5%.
San Francisco’s overall population is back at levels not seen since 2012, but the rest of the Bay Area has deteriorated by that standard. Santa Cruz, Sonoma, and Napa counties are down to 2010 levels, while Marin and San Mateo counties are down to 2011 numbers.
At the other end of the spectrum, Contra Costa County saw its population decline by 1%, equivalent to 12,700 people. Preliminary figures show that Contra Costa’s 2022 population numbers are likely to be at his 2017 level.
“Major shifts in population and migration in either direction will have major impacts on local economies, housing markets, public services, quality of life and even their ecosystems,” said Compass market analyst Patrick Carlisle. may give.
The tech boom has spurred population growth in the Bay Area, which has grown more than 8% from 7.84 million in 2010 to a peak of 8.48 million in 2019.
But when the pandemic hit, this dynamic reversed, and a massive shift to remote work and suburbanization began.
Compass reports that most people who move out of the Bay Area counties are moving to neighboring counties that are more affordable and less densely populated.
on the other hand, Population Moves to Bay Area They come from almost anywhere. In particular, the region has seen a large influx of foreign immigrants, which has been a major force in boosting the population despite the fact that the domestic immigration rate has turned negative in recent years.
San Francisco experienced a nearly 450% surge in net domestic outflows from 2020 to 2021, but preliminary figures for 2022 are closer to historical standards. That year was also the outlier for net foreign immigration to sink for the first time in San Francisco.
Early 2022 figures show a recovery on that front as well, with 3,419 new net expats coming to the city.
According to U.S. Census data cited by the Compass report, Bay Area and California residents are more likely to be in states with no income tax like Texas, Nevada and Florida, states with strong tech sectors like Texas and Washington, or They often choose Arizona or a contiguous state like Arizona. Oregon.
This trend line is particularly pronounced among older home sellers. According to data from the California Association of Realtors, the percentage of home sellers moving out of state in 2021 jumped to 35% for him, while sellers over 50 jumped to 43% for him.
