The 2024 US Senate elections are extremely important, especially for the Republican Party. The Senate map requires Democrats to defend 23 seats in the cycle, while Republicans only have to defend 11. Perhaps the Republicans' biggest advantage is that they have very few seats to defend. Among a subset of 11 in-cycle races, one could reasonably argue that only one, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, defending his seat, is reasonably competitive.

Such an electoral system would be a big advantage for Republicans, especially if they control a comfortable majority in the Senate. With Democrats holding a 51-49 lead in the chamber, not only do Republicans need to reach at least 50 or 51 to protect against a possible re-election of Biden, but they realistically have a Democratic advantage in 2026 and 2028. You have to go far beyond 51 to protect yourself from the map. .

Aside from six obvious targets in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and a wild-card race in Arizona featuring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Republicans Where can we involve other states? Three such potential options have come to the forefront: Minnesota, New Mexico, and now Maryland.

The chances of winning in all these states are very low. But a Republican win or two may not be beyond the realm of possibility.

In Minnesota, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a former presidential candidate, is seeking re-election for a fourth term, and it will clearly be difficult to defeat her.

However, there are some important points to consider. Failed national candidates often fail when they return home and try to convince longtime voters that they are a top priority. Second, Minnesota may enter the presidential election, which would mean serious political competition and increased interest. The latest Minnesota poll conducted by Survey USA in early February found Donald Trump within three points of President Biden in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

In the 2016 election, several minority party and independent candidates were eligible to vote, but in the Minnesota election, the vote share among the major party candidates was 44,765 votes, or 1.5 percentage points (Clinton Please remember that it was within the range of Mr. Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the ballot, and as a candidate for the Green Party, he could be a strong entry along with Jill Stein on the No Label Party line, increasing the vote share of the major parties in 2024. is likely to shrink further.

Additionally, more than 115,000 Muslims live in Minnesota. According to Emgage, which describes itself as the “preeminent Muslim-American civic engagement organization,” 80% of Muslims who voted in 2020 supported President Biden. Currently, their poll shows that President Biden's approval rating among this demographic has dropped to an astonishingly low 5%. These factors alone could give Minnesota an edge in the presidential race, and could give reliable Republican Senate candidates a chance at an upset.

In New Mexico, Republicans have already seen a reliable candidate come forward in Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late Sen. Pete Domenici, who served in the New Mexico State Assembly for 36 years. Mr. Domenici is a committed conservative with decades of experience in the private sector and the resources to give Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich the race of his life. (Related: James Carter and Jim Ellis: Things could get even worse for the Biden campaign)

In two successful Senate elections, Sen. Heinrich's average vote share was only 52.5%. With Hispanics now a majority of New Mexico's population (50.2%) and Republicans starting to make more serious inroads in the community, we could see a more competitive atmosphere. The last two presidential polls conducted in August had Mr. Trump within 6 to 8 points of the president.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan's entry into the Senate race will have a huge impact on the Republican Party's reach, which was previously unthinkable. Hogan was elected twice and left office as the most popular two-term governor in state history. In fact, the latest Emerson College poll conducted after Hogan announced his candidacy shows Hogan tied with Democratic primary leader Rep. David Tron, who has already spent $23 million on his campaign. found. But the two are tied at 42%, according to Emerson College statisticians.

While we expect the major case in the U.S. Senate to be heard in multiple venues, it is important to remember outliers such as those mentioned above. One or two political lightning strikes could give Republicans a long-term majority.

According to what was recently announced, reportAccording to “CBO's Current View of the Economy from 2023 to 2025,” economic growth will plummet by 40% this year, while unemployment will rise and job growth will slow to its worst levels. .

More precisely, CBO expects monthly job growth to decline by 80% in the months leading up to the election. This is expected to increase the number of unemployed people by more than 1 million people, or nearly 20%.

If CBO's predictions prove accurate, the timing This could hardly be worse for all senators. Democratic Party seeking re-election.

Similarly, in 1980, a period of high inflation and economic turmoil, Republicans revived the economy. Senate seats 12, overturning the majority vote for the first time since 1955! Is it possible that something similar will happen in November?

Potentially dire economic conditions could persist given Democrats hold a huge number of seats Looking ahead, and if the Republicans field strong candidates, we could see an electoral wave develop.

James Carter served as Assistant Secretary of Labor and Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President George W. Bush. Jim Ellis is the founder of Ellis Insight election analysis service.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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