Mayor Karen Bass appeared to be on the path to easy re-election.

But that was before wildfires wiped out the palisade band in the Pacific Ocean, placing bass leadership under the national microscope, before the city was in a massive financial crisis and the bass was searching for cuts to fill the budget gap of around $1 billion.

Currently, the first term mayor is significantly vulnerable. It has become much greater chatter among the urban political classes about potential competitors. However, it is unclear whether anyone will seriously challenge the incumbent who still has considerable influence.

“You’re actually vulnerable only if a viable candidate runs against you,” said Sarah Sadwani, assistant professor of political science at Pomona University. “Now we don’t know who that viable candidate will be.”

$108 million questions It remains Bass’ frequent antagonist and whether former opponent Rick Caruso will try her again. Caruso, more visible than the mayor after the fire on January 7th, spent an unprecedented amount of personal fortune in the 2022 race, but lost nearly 10 points of bass.

The developer speculates that he may be running for either the mayor or governor, or may sit in the next cycle. His deep pockets give him the luxury of avoiding decisions until he is absolutely necessary. In other words, he could wait until the beginning of 2026 before he could enter the fight.

Many other names continue to appear in the political world, but no one has said they are going to run.

The list includes Councillor Monica Rodriguez, an iconic unit that has been a stark critic of the mayor’s initiative. Councillor Traci Park represents the Palisades and has become something of a folk hero in her district since the fire. And then the city’s controller Kenneth Mezia, who ran a rebel left-wing campaign in 2022 and became fiercely outspoken about the reasons for the city’s financial crisis.

While some political insiders have increased the likelihood of another heretical, business-friendly candidate emerging from outside the system, most of the names that have emerged seem particularly realistic.

The June primary is still 14 months away and is a political eternity. Time may heal all the wounds of the mayor who fought. And the establishment of the Democrats can re-swirl the wagon around her, as did in 2022.

As a candidate, Bass pledged to make the homeless a matter of her signature and move people from the streets of LA to the home. She has made progress on that front, but the recent decision in Los Angeles County Deduct more than $300 million The Los Angeles Department of Homeless Services will complicate her efforts.

Either way, it may be that it is recovery from fire, not homelessness, that defines the legacy of bass. Many Angelenos expressed dissatisfaction with her early fire response, characterising one in five as good or good, a UC Berkeley Government Institute poll co-hosted by the Times in late February.

The mayor drew public anger for traveling abroad before the fire exploded, making a diplomatic trip to Ghana despite the warnings of intense winds. When she first asked about her trip, she seemed out of sync with the emperor of her own recovery when she was faced with criticism from her fire chief.

The bass also faces recall attempts, but it would be a steep climb to get enough signatures to force organizers to vote.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, Right, and Los Angeles Fire Chief Christine Crowley address the media at a January 11 press conference.

(Allen J. Scheven/Los Angeles Times)

Doug Herman, a political consultant at Bass, said the mayor is “focused on lasers on delivering results for the city.”

“Mayor Bass has been leading the way in crime reduction, the first reduction in homelessness for many years, and is now turning Los Angeles from catastrophic wildfires in one of the fastest recovery and reconstruction efforts in modern California history,” he said.

Over the past few weeks, several votes have been distributed to voters, asking what they think of the bus performance and how they will rate many of the mayor’s potential candidates, including Rodriguez, Park, Caruso and Bass. It is unclear who paid each vote to be placed on the scene.

Billionaire mall mogul Caruso said through a spokesman that he is “completely focused” on restructuring his work through his nonprofit’s solid LA. However, he took out veteran Democratic political consultant Eric Koch in January to communicate for him, and is believed to be behind at least one of the recent polls.

Bass slammed Caruso into his hands in 2022 after branding him as a Republican. It is unclear how that line of attack will revive in four years, the city is still in recovery mode, and Angelenos is far more frustrated with the incumbent mayor.

But Angelenos’ anger towards President Trump could also hurt Caruso, who had registered solely as a Democrat in January 2022, a month before his application for mayoral election that year.

Anyway, Bass has one major advantage that he didn’t have a final go-round. It is a union representing LAPD officers of the Los Angeles Police Protection League, Rank and File, and last time supported Caruso.

The union’s campaign committee spent an attack base of more than $3 million in 2022. Now, the union believes the mayor and police officers have reduced the number of murders, robberies and shootings throughout the city.

“The Los Angeles Police Protection League is enthusiastically supporting Mayor Karen Bass for re-election. Our mayor looks forward to knowing that this mayor has an unwavering commitment to keeping Angelenos and the police officers safe,” the league’s board said in a statement.

For bass, the most dangerous scenario is a competition with multiple trusted challengers. Mayor James K. Hearn faced the situation during the 2005 primary and subsequently lost to Antonio Villaraigoza in a landslide.

Meziah said through a representative that she is not interested in running for mayor at this time. He recently established a campaign committee in 2026, running for a second term as a controller.

Park, which also seeks reelection, told Bass that she has no plans to run to her.

Los Angeles City Councilman Traci Park will speak to participants at a community gathering at the YMCA on Jan. 21 for Palisades fire victims.

(Ringo chiu / for the the the the alls

“The councillors have made it clear that they need to be with her members during this time of the crisis in her district,” said Park spokesman Pete Brown.

As of early April, the two submitted documents to try the bass: Vincent Wali and Asaad Y. Alnajjar. Wari has very few public profiles and Alnajjar is a longtime urban engineer.

“The real problem is the case [Caruso] Can someone fill that blank without running? “We’re a pro-City Council member Mike Bonin, a progressive former city council member and incoming executive director of the Pat Brown Public Institute at California State University Los Angeles.

Due to a lack of challengers, some civic leaders have cast for more options.

“Many of us are looking for someone who has different visions and the courage they need to move through another city in a different direction,” said Sam Yebri, director of Thrive LA’s board of directors. Centrifying Civic Organizations and the Political Action Committee spent more than $600,000 in the final election cycle, focusing on issues of safety and quality of life, Yebri said.

According to Yebri, Thrive La hopes to “expend a lot” on someone “trying to move LA in another direction” in the 2026 mayoral race, but the group has yet to select candidates.

Rodriguez, who represents much of the northeastern San Fernando Valley and is not afraid to scrap with both the mayor and her fellow councillors, was able to provide a departure from the base policy.

When reached by the Times, Rodriguez refused to say whether he would consider the mayor’s run. She said she is committed to both her constituents and the “people of Los Angeles.” Like Park and Mezia, she faces reelection in 2026.

“I am not attached to focusing on work that will improve the lives of all Angeleno,” Rodriguez said in a statement.

A possible dark horse is LA County superintendent Lindsey Horvath, whose district includes Palisades, and has been on the thorns of Bass in recent months.

horvath He led the supervisor’s recent votes To move more than $300 million from local homeless service agencies despite warnings that warnings from the base will hurt cities and create “massive disruption” in the fight against homelessness. Text message to the base In late January, she expressed deep frustration about the mayor’s failure to communicate with her after the fire.

Horvath lives in West Hollywood, surrounded by three sides of Los Angeles, previously serving as mayor of the city of 1.9 square miles. She already wanted to move from the rental apartment before the fire and move to LA, according to someone who knows her thoughts that she is not allowed to speak publicly.

Horvath intends to be reelectioned in 2026 and has already set up her campaign committee. But she is driven by donors and is exploring the run of La Mayor, not ruled out the possibility, someone nearby said.

“I’m not actively pursuing it. I appreciate the trust that the public has placed on me to do this job and I will remain faithful to their call to serve where I need it most,” Horvath told The Times.

Gina Viola, a community activist and small business owner, was virtually unknown to voters before he built a grassroots left campaign in 2022. Viola, who finished fourth with nearly 7% of the votes in that primary, said he has not made a decision on next year’s race.

“I’ve been asked a lot. I’m extremely disappointed that other people aren’t picking up the ball and running,” she said.

Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso arrives at Emerson University in Hollywood on October 7, 2022, and will be attending the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce event.

(Francine Orr/Los Angeles Times)

Viola still hopes another candidate on the left side of the democratic institution will emerge.

Bass has already raised nearly $1.4 million for reelection, but there are doubts as to whether muted enthusiasm could undermine the height that’s giving this time.

Hollywood’s Luminary Jeffrey Katzenberg put nearly $2 million in the independent spending committee supporting Bass in 2022, but a spokesman declined to comment in 2026 when asked if Katzenberg was planning to support her.

Bass is expected to maintain strong support from her allies in organized labor. Three months ago, when she was defending a major criticism about her handling of the Palisade fire, the union’s assortment declared her support.

Once Caruso makes his decision, the race will likely take a more clearer form.

“All Rick is frozen on the field,” said a Democrat strategist who doesn’t want to talk publicly because of his relationships with various players. “Everyone is waiting to see if Rick runs.”