It’s something of a Republican nightmare. For some of the Republicans who are sick of losing, that is.
There is Kari Lake that bounces around Washington DC, Meeting with the Republican Senate Committee.
There is Kari Lake roaming Iowa. He again complains of being robbed and teases the possibility of running for US Senate.
Kari Lake promotes a photo claiming she refuses to stand during the black national anthem at the Super Bowl. She of course used the photo to gain more exposure on social media and right-wing websites.
And then there’s Kari Lake, which could ruin the chances of the Arizona Republicans regaining the Senate seat in 2024.
Mainstream Republicans want someone other than Lake
Longtime political strategist Chuck Coughlin told me: “For them (the Republican voters) to nominate another MAGA candidate who cannot win the general election.”
A new “it” candidate that could clean up the dirt of 2018 and 2020, and especially a devastating 2022 campaign with Republicans wiped out.
In Phoenix:Kali Lake’s Affiliation Influences Council Elections
Counting longtime Republican strategist Chris Baker, I think there’s a good chance the Republicans will retake the Senate seat currently held by independent Senator Kirsten Cinema.
Baker believes Republican voters will focus on regaining what they have lost.
“To Kari Lake, I give her credit. She was able to expand the base beyond the traditional MAGA Republican,” he told me. You will find that very difficult to do.She was given the chance to be the Republican bannerman in 2022 and lost.I think it will weigh heavily on the minds of those who voted for her in 2022.”
Except the Republican bench in the US Senate is slim
But so far, it seems like there’s no one on the horizon standing in her way.
Granted, it’s still early days, but the Republican bench isn’t full of prospects. Republicans no longer control all major state offices. The highest-ranking Republican in the state is now Rep. David Schweikert, and I’m told he’s not interested in running for office.
Congressman Andy Biggs? Rep. Paul Gosser? Neither were able to win the statewide race.
Senator Debbie Lesko? please.
Senator Juan Ciscomani?
He could be the Republican party’s greatest hope for regaining the Senate seat it lost in 2018.
Siskomani has no interest in seats
The great story is that he is the son of Mexican immigrants who was the first in his family to go to college. His father used to drive buses in Tucson. He became the first Latino Republican to represent Arizona in Congress.
And he won in a hotly contested district, showing that he could attract not just traditional conservatives, but key moderate Republican and independent voters in Arizona’s statewide election campaign.
“If you want moderate voters, Hispanic voters, and newcomers who can get women, you’re looking at Juan Ciscomani,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson told me. “Frankly, he’s the complete package except for one thing, and it’s the experience.”
In fact, he’s only been in office for a minute and a half. and as the former Chief of Staff to the government at the time. There is talk that Doug Ducey may be more interested in challenging Democrat Katie Hobbes in 2026.
Ciscomani’s office told me he had no interest in running for Senate next year.
“He is committed to retaining his seat in Arizona’s 6th congressional district in 2024,” said his district director CJ Karamagin.
So who if not him?
Other potential candidates are mostly retreads
The rest of the possible candidates mentioned are mostly retreads.
Karin Taylor-Robson got statewide name ID after running for governor, and wads of money and state power stumbled to help her win. If she had managed to win last year’s Republican primary, she would be calling her governor Taylor Robson today. But she didn’t.
Former Attorney General Mark Brunovich has demonstrated his ability to win statewide campaigns. But his 2022 Senate campaign plummeted, and as far as I can tell, he’s still falling.
Jim Ramon? Break Masters? Went there, did it, and have participation trophies to prove it.
Former Governor Doug Ducey? How many times does he have to say no?
Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is considering running. Like Lake, he hails from the extreme right of the party.
Like Lake, these MAGA relationships could strangle him in the general election unless he manages to make a convincing swoop to the middle.
“A lot of people watching the Senate election are MAGA or MAGA-adjacent,” Merson said. “Arizona is a conservative state, but it’s not Trump. If Republicans want to win this seat, they need to have someone who can appeal to suburban women, moderate Republicans, and right-wing centrist independents. Everything that Kari Lake and Donald Trump couldn’t do.”
If not Kali Lake, who is it?
Sounds more like wishful thinking than actual prediction, but some Republican politicians have told me they’re hoping for a surprise candidate to pop out of an unexpected corner.
Return to Ciscomani.
People who don’t enjoy running.
“It’s still very early,” warned Baker, a Republican consultant. “I think we have a very good chance of winning that seat. It’s a gift to Republicans, and it’s up to us to take advantage of it.
Meanwhile, Kari Lake…
Roberts can be reached at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow @LaurieRoberts on Twitter.
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