Arizona Senator Kirsten Cinema is reportedly planning to run for re-election as an independent, raising questions about the future of the Democratic majority in the Senate.
on friday, wall street journal reports that it has obtained slides from Cinema’s campaign showing the timeline for the reelection bid, setting the stage for what many believe will be the unpredictable three-way race of 2024.
Newsweek I couldn’t check the slides individually. But according to reports, cinema already has a well-thought-out winning strategy. (asking for comments Newsweek In an email, the cinema’s office declined to confirm or comment on the report.)
Cinema believes she has a cross-aisle attraction that could lead her to victory, but polls show the exact opposite. Experts said it suggested it would just divide the liberal vote. Newsweek Shortly after she defected from the party.
But Cinema, who announced her resignation from the Democratic Party amid dismal polls within the party in 2022, is reportedly on the road to re-election. journalThis is the report of Its path depends on a coalition of loyal Democratic voters and a significant proportion of independents and moderate Republicans in battleground states. These Republicans and Democrats, she believes, are hated by more extreme elements within their parties.
Whether the calculations are in place to bring her victory is another matter. Registered as an independent, she now caucuses in Congress primarily as a Democrat.
Last November, Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters lost to moderate Democrat Mark Kelly in the state by nearly five points, while Governor Katie Hobbs narrowly edged far-right candidate Kari Lake in her bid for the governor’s mansion. I just overtook. Gain an advantage in 2024 Arizona.
Long a right-leaning state, Arizona won the Democratic presidential election for the first time in decades thanks to Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, but his margin of victory was less than 11,000 votes. . And although Cinema blanched the Arizona Senate seat for the first time since 1988 with his 2018 win, Donald is just 2.5% ahead of his Trump-closed candidate. I won.
Cinema is expected to face tough competition to keep her seat. Lake has already hinted that she has ambitions for her national office, and she’s not ruling out a 2024 Senate run. NBC News reported on Friday Pinal County Republican Sheriff Mark Lamb plans to run for Senate that year.
On the other hand, cinema’s vote against Republican initiatives such as maintaining the Senate filibuster (which led to condemnation moves from the Arizona Democratic Party) and opposition to the $15 minimum wage during the COVID-19 emergency have left the party against cinema. poisoned the base of Arizona’s Democratic Party representative Ruben Gallego immediately launched her bid against her. Newsweek It was first reported earlier this year.
Cinema has tried to appeal to Republicans and independents over the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S.-Mexico border dispute, but most polls show that Cinema’s campaign presence is not as strong as a candidate like Lake. has been shown to only disadvantage Gallego in the election campaign.
In one of cinema’s best-case scenarios (a December poll conducted by Normington, Pez and Associates on behalf of Replace Cinema PAC), the beleaguered senator would get only a quarter of the popular vote. Instead, candidates like Gallego and Lake are tied at 36. percent.
Other polls by OH Predictive Insights on a hypothetical two-way race between Gallego and candidates like Lake and the Masters show the Democrats have an immediate 10-point lead.
The most sobering assessment for Democrats available today is the December poll by Public Policy Polling. In one-on-one fights, Gallego had a slightly better turnout than Lake, beating her by 1%. However, once Cinema got involved, Gallego lost to her by a margin of 1%, with Cinema receiving almost even votes from both candidates.
